How the Texas Hill Country flood went from small water flow to deadly tide in a matter of hours
Most of the missing were attending Camp Mystic, a popular summer camp along the Guadalupe River.
What began as a routine flood watch quickly turned into a deadly disaster. The National Weather Service predicted between 1 and 3 inches of rain, with some isolated spots possibly getting 5 to 7 inches. Instead, parts of Kerr County were slammed with 10 to 15 inches, and in some places, over 20 inches, within a few hours.
San Antonio Express-News newsroom meteorologist Anthony Franze said the storm was fueled by warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and leftovers from Tropical Storm Barry. These combined to create a slow-moving weather system that stayed over the area and dumped heavy rain over hills and valleys.
The geography of Hill Country made things worse. The steep hills and rocky land don't absorb water well, so rain quickly flows into creeks and rivers. This caused the Guadalupe River to rise more than 20 feet in a matter of hours.
It's the second-highest level ever recorded, even higher than a historic 1987 flood, Franze said.
The area is often called 'Flash Flood Alley' because it's prone to these kinds of fast, dangerous floods, Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist and civil engineer at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said in an article for The Conversation.
Experts say predicting exactly where and how much rain will fall is difficult, and this storm caught many off guard. Dr. Jess Neumann of the University of Reading said this was a 'tragic reminder of the dangers of sudden extreme rainfall and flash flooding.'
"This terrible event, in which children are missing and many have died, raises critical questions about effective early warning systems, flood planning and preparedness in the region,' Neumann said in a news release.
"It cannot be right that a flood of this magnitude, in an area known to be at high risk of flash floods, caused such devastation and has taken so many people by surprise."
The flood struck in the middle of the night, when most people were asleep. There weren't strong warning systems in place to alert residents or campers in time to escape.
"We didn't know this flood was coming," Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said Friday. "No one knew this kind of flood was coming."
The strength of the flood was depicted by a 22-year-old woman who was swept 20 miles downstream and survived by clinging to a tree until help arrived.
More than 850 people have been evacuated so far, and over 200 rescues have been carried out by helicopter, boat, and high-water rescue teams.
Texas officials have declared disaster zones in several counties and are sending in state and federal help. Governor Greg Abbott and other leaders are urging people to follow evacuation orders and stay away from flooded areas.
'We remain in a search-and-rescue posture right now,' Abbott said during a Friday night press conference. 'We will stop at nothing to ensure... that everybody involved in this is going to be fully accounted for."
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