Brewers confident of growth despite tariffs threat to sales
European beer makers remain confident about their growth potential despite U.S. tariffs posing some threat to sales and investors see the companies as a relatively safe haven in an intensifying global trade war.
Brewers such as
Anheuser-Busch InBev
, Heineken and Carlsberg have been trying to restore margin expansion and boost volumes after a difficult few years, when surging costs led to higher prices, hurting sales volumes.
Solid first-quarter earnings have bolstered hopes they can do so this year even as trade tensions rise.
Brewers are relatively shielded from effects on costs, prices and consumer spending thanks to localised production and geographic spread, which should support growth, the companies and investors say.
"We produce everything locally," AB InBev finance chief Fernando Tennenbaum told Reuters after the company reported a surge in first-quarter profit on Thursday.
"We are not changing the outlook," he added, echoing Carlsberg CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen in saying the brewer had not seen any change in consumer behaviour as a result of tariffs so far.
He described the impact of tariffs on aluminium, which may hurt AB InBev's can costs, as currently "not relevant".
Brewers are not directly under fire in the same way as other industries like pharmaceuticals, said Tom Lemaigre, portfolio manager at beer investor Janus Henderson.
While they could suffer if tariffs weaken economies, brewers' share performance indicated the market saw them as relatively protected, he said, adding: "That is probably a sensible assumption to make".
GEOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGES
Brewers' geographical footprints also offer some protection to any impact on consumers.
Lea Seanz, portfolio manager at investor Flornoy Ferri, pointed out that AB InBev makes a hefty chunk of sales in Latin America, where it enjoys high pricing power and growing consumption, while easier comparative numbers should also support brewers' performance in 2025.
"All in all, I think they should be able to compensate for tariffs in the U.S.," she said.
Carlsberg has the least U.S. exposure, at less than 0.1% of total volumes. Both it and Heineken are more reliant on countries in regions like Africa and Asia for growth, though the trade war nevertheless threatens local economies there too.
Carlsberg, AB InBev and Heineken all maintained their full year outlooks in recent weeks.
U.S.-focused rivals like Molson Coors and Constellation Brands have been harder hit. Molson Coors' shares fell 8% on Thursday when the company cut its full-year sales guidance due to tariffs.
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