Why Uddhav, Raj are looking to bury the hatchet, sharpening Marathi manoos pitch

Indian Express

10 hours ago

Days after the Mahayuti-led Maharashtra government rolled back two Government Resolutions (GRs) on the introduction of Hindi in primary schools, estranged cousins Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray came together for the first time in 20 years to hold a joint 'victory' rally centred on Marathi identity Saturday.
As Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj took the stage at the rally in Mumbai, the screen behind them displayed two words – Awaaz Marathicha or voice of Marathi. With the Thackeray cousins pledging unity in the fight for the rights of the 'Marathi manoos (sons of the soil)', they returned to an emotive pitch raised by the late Bal Thackeray when he founded the Shiv Sena in 1966.
Though the rally was meant to celebrate their protests that forced the BJP-led Mahayuti government to backtrack on its three-language policy and alleged 'Hindi imposition', it signalled a significant thaw in the relationship between Uddhav and Raj.
Though there have been signs of their rapprochement several times over the past two decades, their reunion has been written off in political circles. On Saturday, however, they seemed to make their first major move towards burying their differences. Addressing each other as 'sanmanniya (honourable)' in their respective speeches, Uddhav and Raj dismissed apprehensions over their unity.
Attacking Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Raj remarked, 'Fadnavis did what even Balasaheb Thackeray (Shiv Sena founder) could not — he reunited us.' Uddhav also hinted at their alliance, saying, 'We have come together now after many years to remain together.'
With the local body elections, including the high-stakes Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls, round the corner, it remains to be seen how Uddhav and Raj would work out an alliance. While a merger of the Sena (UBT) and the MNS seems unlikely, they may have a tie-up through seat-sharing and joint campaign, which would allow both parties to retain their respective leaderships.
Rift to possible reunion
In the 1990s, it was Bal Thackeray, Uddhav's father, who had groomed his nephew Raj. There was then a widely-held perception that Raj would be the political heir to the Sena founder. Raj followed in his uncle's footsteps, becoming a cartoonist before joining politics. His oratory also echoed his uncle's speeches, as it was marked with a direct approach mixed with anecdotes, mimicry and humour. In contrast, Uddhav remained in the background, focusing instead on the organisational work.
In 2003, when the Sena chose Uddhav as the party working president, it came as a shock to many including Raj. Though he initially backed Uddhav's elevation, the two were unable to work together. In 2005, Raj quit the Sena, and went on to launch the MNS in 2006.
Though the MNS got off to a promising start, its graph steadily declined. But, Raj still continued to make his presence felt on the state's political scene as a fiery leader.
With Eknath Shinde's revolt in June 2022 – which led to the split in the Shiv Sena – dealing a body blow to Uddhav, who lost the party symbol and name to the Shinde-led breakaway faction, the Sena (UBT) now faces the task of rebuilding the party organisation in what is now a crowded political field in Maharashtra.
In such a scenario, with the Sena(UBT) and the MNS at record lows electorally, the tried-and-tested Marathi manoos plank could be key to their revival.
Beyond the political appeal of the Thackeray brand, however, both the Sena (UBT) and the MNS will have to reach out to diverse segments to retain their hold in Maharashtra. While Saturday's rally, and Uddhav's call to 'rise above caste and politics', give them a start, it remains to be seen how their moves play out.
Poll numbers
Data shows the combined strength of the Sena (UBT) and MNS has had the potential to corner a significant chunk of the vote share in the elections to the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, though this combined strength may not hold in the coming polls.
In its debut Assembly elections in 2009, the MNS won 13 seats and a 5.71% vote share. The then undivided Shiv Sena, allied with the BJP at the time, won 44 seats and 16.26% of the vote share.
Five years later, in the 2014 Assembly polls that saw all major parties contest separately, the Sena won 63 seats and a 19.35% vote share, but the MNS was reduced to just one seat and a 3.15% vote share.
In the 2019 Assembly polls, when the Sena and BJP had allied again, the Shiv Sena won 56 seats and 16.41% of the vote share, while the MNS won just one seat and fell to a 2.25% vote share.
By the 2024 Assembly polls, the Shiv Sena had split into two factions. Uddhav's Sena (UBT) won 20 seats with a 9.96% vote share, while the MNS failed to win any seats and managed just 1.55% of the vote share.
How their possible alliance would work across Maharashtra, which has a Marathi speaking population of 70%, remains to be seen depending on how the political landscape would change in the run-up to the 2029 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
Over the years, the MNS has often played the role of vote-divider, with even the undivided Sena fighting to keep its Marathi vote bank intact. If the Sena (UBT) and MNS were to join hands, they could corner a sizeable section of Marathi voters, who account for 30% to 35% of Mumbai's population, at least in the BMC polls.
The results of past elections to the BMC, India's richest municipal corporation, show that the MNS peaked in 2012 when it won 28 seats in the 227-member body, before dropping to just seven seats in 2017.
The Shiv Sena, however, has retained its dominance in the BMC over the last three decades. Between the 2012 and 2017 polls, the undivided Sena went from 75 to 84 seats but faced a fierce fight against the BJP in 2017, which rose to 82 seats from 31 in 2012.
Challenges from BJP
After the 2019 Assembly polls, when Uddhav quit the NDA to form the MVA government with the Congress and undivided NCP, the BJP leadership at the Centre and in the state had pledged to win the next BMC polls 'at any cost'.
With just short of a majority in the Maharashtra Assembly and Fadnavis's infrastructure and development pitch, the BJP poses a significant challenge to Uddhav in the BMC polls. Though there have been multiple attempts – both by the BJP and the Shinde Sena – over the past few months to make the MNS contest independently, Uddhav and Raj coming together could give the BJP a tough fight in the local body polls, especially in the BMC.
The dispute over 'Hindi imposition' has given the Thackerays a potential issue to target the BJP, which is often seen as a North Indian party – a charge dismissed by Fadnavis who cites his party's 132-seat tally won in the 2024 Assembly polls. 'They (Uddhav and Raj) believe they are the custodians of Marathi manoos. They should not live in this myth. I am also Marathi. We also got elected with the support of Marathi manoos,' Fadnavis said.
Some BJP insiders argued that a Uddhav-Raj alliance is merely intended for the BMC polls. 'In the absence of a concrete agenda, an emotive plank is not going to work. Such politics of fits and starts has a short shelf life,' they said.