Marathi manoeuvres
UBT Sena's Uddhav Thackeray, a practitioner of fluid politics, joining hands with MNS boss cousin Raj, a far-right hardline Marathi-Maratha politician, is unsurprising – the bros want to win elections to India's richest civic body, BMC. Shiv Sena has won BMC polls since 1985, barring 1992-1996. Raj broke away in 2005 after Uddhav inherited the party. Shiv Sena split in 2022 – Eknath Shinde toppled Uddhav govt and walked away with CMship, sainiks, party and symbol. Cut to the present: MNS has zero electoral relevance, Uddhav is floundering. After Lok Sabha and state polls, elections to BMC – the jewel in Sena's crown – will be Uddhav's third test. He has struggled to articulate his idea of a more inclusive Sena within the secular camp. When he resigned his post ahead of a floor test, it was a principled stand for a politician. It however cost him a potential return to office in the Supreme Court case that followed. Uddhav won the people's sympathy, sweeping LS polls, only to come a cropper in state elections.
Mahayuti (BJP+Shinde Sena) has held strong as a unit. UBT Sena long announced it wouldn't contest BMC polls as part of MVA. In tying up with MNS, Uddhav has turned another corner. Is there a meeting ground? If anything, it was Raj who raised eyebrows. He created an opening for a patch-up when he criticised Centre's reaction to Pahalgam attack. MNS brings sainiks, UBT Sena brings Uddhav. Will it be enough? In 2021-2022, OBC quota within BMC was a contentious issue – in 2021, under Uddhav, delimitation increased the number of wards from 227 to 236. Shinde scrapped that in Aug 2022. As the process for the election gets underway, it's such issues that will influence outcomes. The stakes are high for both Shinde Sena-BJP and UBT Sena-MNS. But for Uddhav personally, a loss can be hard to recover from. In the last BMC polls in 2017, undivided Shiv Sena won 84 seats, junior ally BJP 82. No one got a majority in the 227-seat BMC. Sena retained mayor's post. But eight years on, BJP's the Big Bro, and CM Fadnavis is aggressively if quietly calling the shots.
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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
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