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PM backs status quo on Taiwan in face of US pressure to reveal intent in case of China invasion

PM backs status quo on Taiwan in face of US pressure to reveal intent in case of China invasion

West Australian3 days ago
Anthony Albanese has declined to reveal whether Australia would join the United States in a war with China over Taiwan or commit to deploying any of the nuclear-powered submarines it obtains under the AUKUS program.
Reports that the Pentagon was urging Canberra to clarify its role in a potential conflict over the democratic island that Beijing has repeatedly threatened to invade landed with awkward timing for the Prime Minister.
He arrived in Shanghai on Saturday night for a six-day China tour focused on boosting economic and trade ties.
Sunday began with a sunny walk along the financial metropolis' iconic Bund with players and coaches from the Shanghai Port Football Club.
It was soon overshadowed, however, by a report in the Financial Times that Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby had been pushing both Australia and Japan to offer assurances about their responses if a great power conflict was triggered over the strategically located Pacific island.
Asked about the reported US demands during a press conference at Trip.com headquarters to promote the Australian tourism sector, Mr Albanese suggested a position of strategic ambiguity, while adding that 'mature' conversations were happening in private.
The Prime Minister said Australia's 'aim of investing in our capabilities as well as investing in our relationships is about advancing peace and security in our region.'
China's ruling Communist Party has made territorial claims over Taiwan, even though it has never governed there, and has threatened to take the democracy of 23.5 million by force if it refuses to unify with the mainland.
When it came to Australian deterrence strategies to avoid future conflict, Mr Albanese said it was 'important that we have a consistent position, which Australia has had for a long period of time; we support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don't support any unilateral action there,' he said.
'What's important when it comes to international relationships is that you have a stable, orderly, coherent position going forward,' he added.
'We don't want any change to the status quo. That's Australia's position today. That was Australia's position last week. That's been a bipartisan position for a long period of time.'
The Financial Times reported that Australian and Japanese officials had been caught off guard by the Pentagon's demands which went further than previous public calls from the White House for allies to raise military spending and take on more of the burden of collective defence.
The deepening pressure for a commitment to a Taiwan contingency is all the more surprising as the US itself has an official policy of 'strategic ambiguity' on Taiwan, under which it does not say if it would defend the island if attacked by China.
Mr Albanese was asked if it was 'reasonable for the United States to demand any sort of assurances from Australia on a Taiwan contingency, given the United States itself maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity?'
'You just answered the question yourself, I think, through the comments that you've made,' he responded.
Elbridge Colby, a known China hawk who has long advocated for US allies to pick up more of the collective defence burden, is currently spearheading a review of the trilateral $368bn AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine pact that is central to Australia's national security strategy.
In response to a tweet about the FT article overnight, Mr Colby neither dismissed the report nor referred directly to specific demands but he doubled down with a stern message that the US defence department was 'focussed on implementing the President's America First, common sense agenda of restoring deterrence and achieving peace through strength.'
He said this included urging allies to 'step up their defence spending and other efforts related to our collective defence,' which had been a hallmark of the Trump strategy in Asia and Europe.
'Of course, some among our allies might not welcome frank conversations. But many, now led by NATO after the historic Hague Summit, are seeing the urgent need to step up and are doing so. President Trump has shown the approach and the formula - and we will not be deterred from advancing his agenda,' he said.
In an interview on ABC Insiders on Sunday, Acting Defence Minister Pat Conroy said Australia had been advised that the much-awaited AUKUS review had not yet been completed.
But he said the Government was confident the assessment would support the defence pact.
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Sam Hawley: Well, we know, of course, that trade and business are crucial items for Anthony Albanese during this trip. Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister: And given that China is overwhelmingly, by far, the largest trading partner that Australia has, it is very much in the interest of Australian jobs and the Australian economy to have a positive and constructive relationship with China. Sam Hawley: But the thing is, Laura, we've seen before that this relationship with China is so delicate that it can fall apart in a nanosecond. We saw that, didn't we, with Scott Morrison when he called for an inquiry into COVID, trade was just cut by Beijing. So why are we trying to build it up when we know that it can fall apart so easily? Laura Tingle: Well, it can fall apart around the edges, but realistically, we still have this massive trade relationship with China. That's the reality of it. 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News report: Beyond meat, China is now refusing to accept timber from four states. Lobsters are shut out. Wine exporters face up to 200% tariff. Laura Tingle: I think there's been a bit of a change at the Chinese end. I think the whole culture of the so-called wolf warrior diplomacy was something that they ultimately decided wasn't really working in their interests. And I think once again, to mention Donald Trump, you can see, I think, that not just in their relationship with Australia, but in their relationship with countries like Vietnam. China is really pushing this message that, you know, we're the safe and steady, you know, people who make very sensible, rational, calm decisions about our trade relationships. China's playing the sort of adult in the room role, if you like. Sam Hawley: Well, Laura, of course, trade is one thing. But then there is the flip side to this relationship, and that is security, of course, and the elephant, if you like, in the room, which is Taiwan. And that is when things get really complicated, don't they, for Anthony Albanese? Laura Tingle: Well, they do and they don't get complicated in some way, Sam. If you think about sort of the domestic way this issue has to play out at some point and also then how it plays out on the international stage. Now, a story was leaked over the weekend, just as the prime minister was arriving in Shanghai, about how the Under Secretary of Defense, Elbridge Colby, was pushing Australia and Japan to say exactly what their position would be in the case of a war with Taiwan. On one level, that's sort of a bit embarrassing for the prime minister, but he's made it clear that, you know, we make our own decisions about these things. Reporter: Do you think it's important, from the point of view of deterrence, of China, that you say, yes, we're involved or no, we're not involved? Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister: I think it's important that we have a consistent position, which Australia has had for a long period of time. We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don't support any unilateral action. Laura Tingle: And it was being linked to the AUKUS submarines, the Virginia class submarines that we're supposed to be getting from the Americans. Now, it's quite clear, talking to Australian officials, that they don't regard the AUKUS deal is in any way, gives the Americans any right to tell us what we would do with the US submarines once we got them, because they'd be ours, you know, we would buy them. Now, there seems to be a fair degree of confidence that despite these stories, you know, that will all sort of settle down. And I sort of also think you've got to back engineer this a little bit. I mean, if you took Elbridge Colby's comments seriously and said, he's saying that we can't get the submarines unless we're prepared to go to war with Taiwan. Well, wait a minute. The Americans haven't said that they would go to war with China over Taiwan. It sort of doesn't all quite stack up. Sam Hawley: There was some confusion, wasn't there, when Joe Biden was president over some questioning on this, whether the US would support Taiwan militarily. Laura Tingle: Yes. Sam Hawley: That was never really cleared up, but he came pretty close to saying they would. Laura Tingle: He certainly did come close to saying that they would. Donald Trump certainly hasn't. Sam Hawley: What do you think, though, Laura, is the Trump administration justified in asking this question, asking nations if they would support the US if China did invade Taiwan? You know, China has continually been flexing its muscles, hasn't it? Military exercises around the Pacific, including almost all the way around Australia. So there's reason for concern. There's reason for discussions like this. Laura Tingle: Absolutely. There's a really legitimate reason for discussions. And I think it's really important that Australia has that discussion internally, because I don't think we've been having it until now. And it affects those decisions about whether we have a forward strategic stance in the South China Sea or not. But I think the crucial question is it's fine for the Americans to ask that question if their own position is clarified. And I think this is the dodgy bit of it, to use the technical phrase. I mean, I think the Americans don't want to say what their position is. And it's not clear that they would go to war over Taiwan with China. Reporter: Would it be reasonable for the United States to demand any sort of assurances from Australia on a Taiwan contingency, given the United States itself maintains a policy of strategic ambiguity, at least in theory, on Taiwan? Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister: Well, you've just answered the question yourself, I think, through the comments that you've made. Sam Hawley: Well, Laura, just sum this up for me. How successful do you think the prime minister's approach to China will be? Because it is remarkably different, isn't it, to the way that Scott Morrison, for instance, dealt with Beijing or Donald Trump, for that matter? Laura Tingle: Well, you'd have to say at this stage, it's certainly more successful, Sam, just because we have restored those trade links. He's here. This is another visit. You know, as you say, it's always volatile. But for now, it's quite a good relationship. And it serves both countries well in the context of this global trade war that Donald Trump has started. So I think, you know, it's a it's a good basis to be operating in this very uncertain world. Sam Hawley: But Laura, what about tensions in the relationship? What do you think? Will Anthony Albanese actually tackle those head on? Or is he going to bring some sort of softer approach for fear of backlash from China? Laura Tingle: Look, well, I suppose there are two observations on that. One of them is Penny Wong has in the last week gone out very hard on these issues, both in a speech and also in her meetings with her counterpart when she was at the ASEAN meeting. Penny Wong, Foreign Minister: China continues to assert its strategic influence and project its military power further into our region. And we have seen the worrying pace of China's nuclear and conventional military build up without the transparency that the region expects. We are realistic about China's objectives in changing the regional balance of power. Laura Tingle: So she's laid down Australia's protests on all these issues in a very forthright way. And the prime minister has said that, you know, these issues will not be avoided in his conversations with the president and premier while he's here in Beijing. But, you know, it's always the case that those leader to leader meetings, they're a little bit more diplomatic about what they might say publicly. But Anthony Albanese says that, one, he's on the case and two, that it's been successful in the interests of Australia since he's been prime minister. Sam Hawley: All right. Well, Laura, it's a true balancing act. That's for sure. The PM's trying to work with China, but he also wants to keep the US happy too. So this, I think, is one of the most complicated relationships he has to deal with as the leader of Australia, right? Laura Tingle: Absolutely. Absolutely. But I can't help but feeling that the way that the Trump administration has been behaving, if you like, in that broader description of its sort of erraticness and everything, has created both political space at home and abroad for the prime minister to establish a more assertive position with both major powers and sort of establish that more independent voice of our own. I think it's been quite useful because I think people at home are sort of, they look at what Donald Trump's been doing with a bit of confusion and concern, and it's just given him some space. And of course, also, you know, three years ago, there was this sense that the Labor Party couldn't say anything negative about the United States at all or about the alliance because they'd get absolutely pummelled by the coalition. It's harder to do that now because of the way the US has been going. But also, of course, the coalition is weakened politically and its both its capacity and its taste for, you know, fighting every last fight as a sign of, you know, being disloyal to the Americans has really subsided. So I think there's a lot of tectonic plate shifting, which give government of the day room to manoeuvre with both major powers. Sam Hawley: Laura Tingle is the ABC's Global Affairs Editor. This episode was produced by Sydney Pead and Kara Jensen-Mackinnon. Audio production by Sam Dunn. Our supervising producer is David Coady. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.

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