Will Scottish teams avoid European co-efficient abyss?

Yahoo

22-07-2025

The Premier Sports Cup group stage is already in full swing, but big-time football is truly back this week as three of Scotland's five representatives begin what appears to be an increasingly hazardous journey through European qualifiers.
Rangers host Panathinaikos in the Champions League's second qualifying round on Tuesday.
On Thursday, Hibernian visit Midtjylland in the same stage of the Europa League, with Dundee United entertaining Strassen in the Conference League.
Celtic are seeded in Champions League play-off round, while Aberdeen await at the same stage of the Europa League.
But what are the chances of the others at least joining them in the play-offs and how crucial might it be for Scottish clubs' European standings?
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Scotland at co-efficient cliff edge
As the Scotland's Coefficient website states, the country's clubs face the European abyss if they do not perform well enough this season to improve their joint standings.
Only champions Celtic and Scottish Cup winners Aberdeen are guaranteed league phase football this season.
Rangers and Hibs can follow should they win their opening ties, but since finishing ninth in Europe in 2022-23 for a second successive season - the country's best since seventh in 1988 - Scotland's co-efficient has dropped so far that it starts the new campaign in 17th.
Unless Scotland can, like last season, improve that by the end of the season to 14th, its clubs would go into future campaigns in their worst position since 2012.
Representation would drop from five to four clubs in two years' time.
In addition, future champions would have three Champions League qualifiers instead of one, the runners-up would have three Conference League qualifiers - along with the team finishing third - instead of three in the Champions League, while the Scottish Cup winners would have four Europa League qualifying ties instead of one.
Falling out of the top 12 already means that next season's Scottish Cup winners will enter the Europa League third qualifying round instead of the play-offs and will not be guaranteed group stage football.
Meanwhile, the team finishing third in the Premiership will now enter in the Conference League in the second qualifying round instead of the same stage of the Europa League.
The pressure is on this season's five representatives, with Scotland's Coefficient predicting: "We will not finish in the top 15 unless we have four teams in the league phase."
So what are the chances for the first three as they start their campaigns?
Greek side full of internationals
Rangers put the disappointment of losing to Dynamo Kyiv in the Champions League third qualifying round last season behind them to reach the Europa League quarter-finals before losing to Athletic Bilbao.
On the way, they drew 1-1 with eventual winners Tottenham Hotspur as they finished eighth in the league stage.
Having reached the last 16 the season before, Rangers are now ranked 30th in Europe - 60 places above Panathinaikos.
However, the Greek Superleague runners-up have a decent recent record of their own, having progressed through two rounds before losing to Braga in the play-offs two years ago.
Last season, they thumped Botev Plovdiv 6-1 on aggregate in the Europa League second qualifying round before losing on penalties to Ajax.
They would then beat Lens in the Conference League play-off before finishing 13th in the league stage and reaching the round of 16, losing to eventual semi-finalists Fiorentina.
Panathinaikos have never lost to Scottish opponents in seven matches, although - after beating Aberdeen in the group stage - it was Rangers who progressed in the 2008 Europa League round of 32 on away goals after a 1-1 draw at Ibrox was followed by a goalless draw in Athens.
Five years earlier, they also drew 1-1 in Athens but won 3-1 at Ibrox in the Champions League group stage, while their most recent meeting with a Scottish club in qualifying was a 5-0 defeat of Motherwell in 2011.
Portuguese head coach Rui Vitoria, appointed in October, won seven trophies with Benfica, led Al-Nassr to the 2020 African Champions League semi-finals, while Spartak Moscow won their Europa League group ahead of Leiceister City and Napoli while he was in charge.
Former Liverpool youth midfielder Pedro Chirivella, the Spaniard signed from Nantes, is one of three summer purchases along with left-back Giorgos Kyriakopoulos, who left Monza after their relegation from Serie A.
Midfielder Manolis Siopis, signed from Cardiff City in January, is another of their five Greece internationals, while they have nine others capped for their countries.
Among them are Uruguay winger Facundo Pellistri, who played a handful of games during four years with Manchester United, one time Southampton loanee midfielder Filip Duricic and United States centre-back Erik Palmer-Brown, once of Manchester City.
Whether Rangers, in the early stages of rebuilding under new head coach Russell Martin, beat the Greeks to progress to the Champions League third qualifying round or drop to its Europa League equivalent, teams with similar recent European pedigree await.
In the top tournament, it is Viktoria Plzen of the Czech Republic or Servette of Switzerland, while Besiktas of Turkey or Shakhtar Donetsk of Ukraine are arguably more formidable opponents in the Europa equivalent.
Even if Rangers do reach the Champions League play-offs, Benfica, Brann, Club Brugge, Nice, or Salzburg will still need to be overcome.
Midtjylland favourites against Hibs
Hibs will head to Denmark on Thursday as underdogs given their relative recent European results.
The Leith side have failed in six attempts to progress through the qualifiers in the last 15 years, although they did come closest two years ago until Aston Villa ended their dream with an 8-0 aggregate thrashing in the Conference League play-offs.
Hosts Midtjylland, meanwhile, navigated two rounds before losing to Slovan Bratislava in the Champions League play-offs last season - then finished 20th in Europa League, qualifying for the play-off round, where they lost to Real Sociedad.
That explains why the Danes are ranked 71st in Europe - 166 places above Hibs.
Having lost 7-3 on aggregate to Rangers in Europa League qualifying in 2019, their improvement was such that they knocked Celtic out of the Champions League qualifying, 3-2 on aggregate, two years later.
Thomas Thomasberg is in his second spell as head coach and has gathered together a squad with international experience from around the world.
Up front he has Poland's Adam Buksa, South Korea's Cho Gue-sung and Guinea-Bissau's Franculino Dju, who is reportedly of interest to several Premier League clubs.
Zambia's Edward Chilufya is joined in midfield by Denil Castillo, who has just made his Ecuador debut, while another 21-year-old, winger Darío Osorio, plays for Chile and centre-back Lee Han-beom recently debuted for South Korea.
Although Kevin Mbabu did not make it even to Rangers' bench on loan from Newcastle United in 2015, the 30-year-old right-back has since played for Young Boys, Wolfsburg and Fulham while earning 25 caps for Switzerland.
Midtjylland are captained by former Brentford centre-back Mads Bech Sorensen, while veteran goalkeeper Jonas Lossl also played for the Premier League club, as well as Huddersfield Town and Everton.
Like Rangers, David Gray's Hibs have an added incentive to remain in their current competition, with next opponents Fredrikstad of Norway having limited European pedigree.
Drop to the Conference League and they will face one of two sides who finished runners-up in their domestic league - Oleksandriya of Ukraine or Red Star Belgrade of Serbia.
No room for 404 error by United
United will be kicking themselves if they do not at least reach the Conference League third qualifying round.
It is nearly 40 years since the Tannadice club followed up their place in the European Cup last-four by reaching the Uefa Cup final.
They have failed to win a European tie in six attempts since their last win - against Principat of Andorra in 1997 - and they languish at 238th in the current rankings.
However, that is still 166 places above opponents Strassen, who have only ever played one other tie in European competition - when they lost 5-0 to Finnish side Kuopion Palloseura (KuPS) after a goalless draw at home in last season's first qualifying round.
Arno Bonvini's side have since finished runners-up in their domestic league - their best-ever performance - but they are a squad without notable names, with six summer exits being replaced with six additions, all from within Luxembourg.
Jim Goodwin's United ought to progress, but Rapid Vienna, who reached the Conference League quarter-finals last season, or Decic, who won the Montenegrin title two seasons ago, lie in wait.
Celtic will at least drop to the Europa League and Aberdeen to the Conference League if they lose their play-off ties, but the other clubs three face a rocky road to follow them into the league stages on what Scotland's Coefficient fears is a European "cliff edge".