Fed rate cut bets to help rupee extend weekly rally
Mumbai, June 27 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to climb further on Friday, supported by weak U.S. data that has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and possibly earlier.
The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.58-85.62 range, versus 85.7050 in the previous session. The rupee has already risen 1% through Thursday and is on track for its best weekly showing in several weeks, driven largely by a plunge in oil prices after the Israel-Iran ceasefire.
The currency finally broke past the 86 handle on Thursday - a level it had been struggling to crack in prior sessions.
The break probably "unlocks the next leg lower" for USD/INR pair, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
"Interbank positioning isn't a hurdle. Price action over the next few sessions will tell us if this has turned into a sell-on-rallies market," the trader said.
U.S. first-quarter GDP contracted a bit faster than previously thought.
The downward revision was led by consumption, which was trimmed by 0.7 percentage points to a 0.5% pace entirely because of softer services spending, Morgan Stanley said in a note.
"Our economists note the tone of 1Q25 data changed and now suggests a household sector that was retrenching at the start of the year," it said
Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims declined in the week through June 21. However, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased to its highest level since November 2021.
The 10-year U.S. yield fell to its lowest in nearly two months on Thursday, amid markets pricing in more Fed rate cuts than what the June dot plot had suggested.
The dollar index remains pinned near multi-year lows, reflecting the rate expectations.
KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.70; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise
** Dollar index down at 97.3
** Brent crude futures up 0.6% at $68.2 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.26%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $99.5mln worth of Indian shares on Jun. 25
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $39.8mln worth of Indian bonds on Jun. 25
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