The GNU has failed the only test that matters: growing the economy and delivering jobs

Daily Maverick

3 days ago

The national coalition is entering yet another week it may not survive. While there have been real mistakes of leadership – and the ANC and the DA cannot give up their patterns from the past – it is becoming increasingly obvious that what is missing is a sense of mission. Because the parties involved are not focusing on the economy, and particularly youth unemployment, the coalition can give the impression that it is doomed.
When the national coalition was formed and the ANC and the DA agreed to work together, along with eight other parties, there was some discussion about how to assess, in the future, whether the coalition was a success.
Because the lived experience of so many South Africans has become so much tougher so quickly, it was pretty obvious, back in June 2024, that the real test was the economy.
As has been said many, many, many times before, our youth unemployment is now so bad that it is easily the biggest long-term problem we face.
Despite this obvious fact, disputed by nobody, the coalition has done nothing.
At the same time, it appears the coalition is missing a sense of unity around a purpose. There appears to be no sense of 'mission' that could help bring people from different political backgrounds together.
Instead, it can give the impression of a group of people united only by their belief that they should be in Cabinet and the MK party and the EFF should be out of it.
If the coalition had created a sense of mission by focusing on youth unemployment, perhaps this could have brought them together.
Surely parties as far apart politically as the PAC and the FF+ agree that helping young people into jobs and giving them hope is vital for our future.
If the coalition had this sense of mission, perhaps it would have been able to overcome the lack of leadership and personal chemistry that is currently on display.
It would have been much easier to overcome disagreements over the Budget, or the still-strange firing of the DA's Andrew Whitfield, if there had been another ultimate aim.
But that is curiously lacking. And, strangely, it is not just the coalition.
Direction unknown
While there are many differing views about whether a National Dialogue would really be constructive, one of the most powerful arguments against it is that it will lack focus.
It appears to include people from almost all parts of our public life. And their job is to discuss pretty much everything.
This will probably be fatal to the process. It is hard to see what can really be achieved. Surely no decisions will be made that will alter the nature of our economy.
Instead, it appears that many of our politicians, whether they are a part of the coalition, or supporting a dialogue, are more comfortable discussing issues other than the economy.
There is a curious lack of focus.
Of course, Operation Vulindlela and the progress it is making should not be ignored. Some of its measures, dealing with load shedding and the progress it's made at Transnet, are making slow changes to our economy that should be celebrated.
But our politicians appear to lack the will to make the real changes that will matter. This is part of a pattern which took hold some time ago.
Fifteen years ago, I made the same point about the ANC's lack of focus on the economy.
At least eight years ago, ANC members made the same point on these pages. Government itself said back in 2020, even before the pandemic, that the economy was not going to grow unless there was action.
This lack of focus obviously predates President Cyril Ramaphosa. Rather, it may be a feature of how the ANC has governed over the years.
In 2007, days after winning the ANC leadership at Polokwane, Jacob Zuma gave very few clues on governance priorities. In 2009, the ANC said it had five 'apex priorities'.
During the Zuma era in government, this lack of focus revealed itself in interesting ways. For example, in 2014 he appointed inter-ministerial committees to deal with particular issues. These committees were huge.
The committee appointed to work against corruption (this was in the relatively early days of the Zuma era – the full irony of this committee would emerge later) included nine ministers.
The committee on information and publicity had 12 (twelve!) members. It should be no surprise to anyone that nothing constructive was done here.
Too many cooks
There is, of course, a structural reason for all of this. As our society is so diverse, with so many different constituencies, politicians often struggle to be involved in discussions that will involve trade-offs. They do not want to be seen to be losing a single vote.
The fact that the ANC set the tone for this may well be because it had the most diverse group of constituencies of all our parties. Simply put, it was always too broad a church to create economic policy that could include trade-offs.
Something similar might well be happening today. The coalition is simply too broad to make the decisions that matter. For this reason, the National Dialogue might well appear to fail as well.
It is true that there are many other factors holding our economy back.
They include the fact that so many people have literally been betrayed by our education system, that inequality generally harms economic growth and that our infrastructure has been allowed to rot.
None of this will be overcome without political will. For the moment, members of the national coalition are displaying none of the will, and the unity, necessary to change this.
There will be many casualties as a result of this inaction.