Reliance Industries shares recede after testing 52-week high range: Is it a breather or trend reversal?
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After staging a sharp 24% rally in 2025 and nearing record highs, shares of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) have begun to retreat, a move that comes amid growing investor unease over delayed IPO timelines and signs of near-term fatigue on the charts. The stock, once within 1% of its 52-week peak, has now slipped nearly 6% from that level, raising the question: is this a healthy pause or the start of a trend reversal?On Thursday, July 10, RIL shares were trading 0.7% lower at Rs 1,508.10 on the BSE. The slide comes just a day after the stock fell nearly 2% on Wednesday, July 9, following a Reuters report that Reliance Jio Platforms had shelved its widely anticipated IPO for 2025, with Reliance Retail's listing also pushed further out. While long-term fundamentals remain intact, powered by a pivot to green energy and rising Street targets, the short-term picture is looking more clouded.Despite the pullback, RIL remains above six of its eight key simple moving averages, signalling bullish momentum over the medium term. However, it has slipped below its 5-day and 10-day SMAs, indicating bearish undertones in the immediate short-term.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62.2, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The MACD, at 29.3, continues to hover above both the center and signal lines, reinforcing a broadly positive trend.The recent cooling in the stock follows a report on July 9 that said Reliance Jio Platforms, valued at over $100 billion, will not go public this year. The company aims to 'further grow revenue and its subscriber base before hitting the public markets,' said sources quoted in the report. Jefferies and IIFL peg Jio's valuation at $136 billion and $111 billion, respectively.The setback has compounded concerns around Reliance Retail's listing, which is now unlikely before 2027 or 2028. Operational challenges and underwhelming metrics like earnings per square foot have prompted RIL to restructure its Rs 11,500 crore FMCG business into a standalone unit called New Reliance Consumer Products Ltd. According to the NCLT's June 25 order, the move aims to bring 'specialised and focused attention' to the business and attract 'a different set of investors.'Brokerages, however, remain bullish on RIL's longer-term prospects. Nuvama has assigned the Street's highest target of Rs 1,801, citing the company's aggressive New Energy push. RIL has operationalised its first 1GW Heterojunction Technology (HJT) solar module line and plans to scale this to 10GW by early 2026.'RIL's modules business (20GW capacity) yields an EV of $20bn, which could trigger a valuation re-rating for RIL — similar to the trend seen post-RJIO's launch in 2017,' wrote Nuvama's Jal Irani and others. The brokerage expects New Energy's PAT to grow at a 140% CAGR over FY26–30, contributing 9% of total PAT by FY30.CLSA, which has a Rs 1,650 target on the stock, sees the upcoming Q1FY26 results later this month as a potential catalyst. 'Reliance Industries is entering into an exciting period, beginning with its 1QFY26 earnings, where we expect to see notable improvements in KPIs across its key businesses,' said analyst Vikash Kumar Jain.Jio added 2.6 million mobile subscribers in April, and broadband additions, including AirFiber, could total 9–10 million in Q1, surpassing the full-year FY25 count. Meanwhile, operational streamlining in retail is expected to translate into high-teens EBITDA growth, and CLSA's gross refining margin (GRM) tracker points to a sequential gain of $1.1/bbl in the Oil-to-Chemicals business.Whether Reliance's recent pullback marks the start of a longer consolidation or simply a breather ahead of fresh catalysts will likely depend on how the July earnings and New Energy ramp-up unfold in the months ahead.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
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