Bonta's bad bet: Fantasy sports ban could further alienate young male voters
Their latest bad bet: California Attorney General Rob Bonta's recent verdict that fantasy sports games are illegal in the state, a move that one prominent Democrat called 'boneheaded' and 'tone-deaf' and that has inspired commercial gaming sites to rally their users in opposition.
And there's a lot of them. Roughly 5 million to 7 million Californians play daily fantasy sports, and about 70% are under 35, according to the Coalition for Fantasy Sports.
The vast majority of sports bettors are under 40, 'and about 90% are men,' said Ryan Butler, senior news editor at Covers.com, a sports betting information hub.
The message young men are getting from this ban: Democrats represent the nanny state. The No Fun Police. Who'd want to be associated with that crew?
The answer is: a dwindling number of young people, which is making it harder for Democrats to regain any grasp on power as President Donald Trump's fascistic reign surges forward. In 2020, 48 percent of male voters supported Joe Biden. That fell to 42% in 2024 for Kamala Harris, according to an analysis by Catalist, a left-leaning data analysis firm. Support dropped 16 points over that period among Latino men, 9 among Black men and 8 points among white men. Among all voters under 29, Democrats lost 6 percentage points to Republicans between 2020 and 2024.
'It's a boneheaded idea. It's culturally out of touch,' said Rep. Ro Khanna, D-San Jose, a potential 2028 presidential candidate who has been critical of the party's performance in the last cycle. 'It's just tone-deaf. I feel like almost every guy has played fantasy football at some point. Even people who weren't football fans. Are we going to ban Coke Zero next?'
Notably, Gov. Gavin Newsom — another potential 2028 aspirant who has been spending a lot of time critiquing the party's performance last year, especially with men — smelled a skunk and quickly sprinted away from Bonta's decision.
'The attorney general, in his independent capacity, issued this opinion — not the governor's office,' Newsom spokesman Izzy Gardon said. 'While the governor does not agree with the outcome, he welcomes a constructive path forward in collaboration with all stakeholders.'
Translation: Don't blame me. Blame Bonta.
It may be too late. While Newsom had nothing to do with this decision, the gambling sites are already blaming the ban on 'Sacramento politicians' and are sending thousands of texts, emails and push notifications to their customers making sure that they know who is responsible.
'Sacramento politicians are trying to ban fantasy sports in California. We need YOU to stop them,' gaming site Prize Picks said in a push notification to its users directing them to 'take action.'
The ban was an own goal by Bonta, a collegiate soccer star. He was asked by Assembly Member Tom Lackey, R-Palmdale (Los Angeles County), for his assessment. But his predecessors, Kamala Harris and Xavier Becerra, were also asked similar questions and neither offered an opinion.
So why did he? Bonta, 52, who decided not to run for governor in 2026 after exploring the idea, still has a potentially long political future in California. He doesn't want to get on the wrong side of one of the most powerful political forces in California: its native tribes, whose 'lifeblood' is the casinos on their land — and which have contributed more than $400,000 to him as attorney general and previously as a state legislator.
'Why is he doing this?' Khanna said. 'Is it the tribes that are pushing this, or what?'
Newsom, in contrast, can more easily shrug off pressure from the tribes, as he's termed out of office in 2026 and the tribes aren't as powerful outside of California.
'Such games constitute wagering on sports' in violation of state laws dating back to 1909, Bonta said in a formal opinion issued by his office.The law defines illegal betting as 'promises to give money or money's worth upon the determination of an uncertain or unascertained event in a particular way,' the attorney general wrote, and that definition applies to fantasy contests as well as real-life sporting events.
For the tribes, this question is existential. The only places where people can legally gamble in California are at cardrooms, racetracks, and casinos on tribal land — in addition to playing the state lottery. The tribes are constantly feeling the pressure from commercial gaming sites like FanDuel and DraftKings, which want to see all sports gambling legalized in California, where Butler estimates $40 billion to $50 billion could be bet annually (and the companies would take about a 10% cut of that).
The tribes are trying to insulate and solidify their hold on the market. Last year, when Bonta was seeking public input on his ruling, the California Indian Nations Gaming Association, composed of 52 member tribes, said in a Jan. 31 letter that daily fantasy supports 'do not qualify as lawful fantasy sports or contests but illegal sports wagering.'
The tribes are not afraid to spend to defend their turf. In 2022, the tribes and their allies spent a combined $463 million on two ballot measures that would have legalized online gambling. They see the future and want a seat at the table when gambling is legalized here.
Shortly before the 2022 vote on Proposition 27, which would have legalized online gambling in California and sent 85% of the money it generated through a 10% tax on gross online sports betting revenue toward homeless services, Mark Macarro, chairman of the Pechanga Band of Luiseño Mission Indians, told the Chronicle's editorial board, 'It's inevitable that mobile gaming is going to be upon us some day. Where do we fit in? And the conclusion that many of us have reached is we should, at a minimum, be at the table helping develop the legal framework for when mobile gaming arrives.'
Macarro was a Prop. 27 opponent who emphasized that some of his fellow tribal chairs 'aren't as far down the road in terms of the inevitability of mobile gaming.'
If online gambling were to be legalized through Prop. 27, Macarro said, there is a concern that it could damage 'the brick-and-mortar casinos' that are what he called 'our lifeblood, fundamentally.' Tribal gambling has created over 150,000 jobs in California and $27 billion in economic impact, according to the tribes.
That is the politics behind Bonta's decision, which notably was released right before the July 4 weekend, when unflattering news typically gets released in the hope that it goes unnoticed. It may have done that. But the damage it might have inflicted on the Democratic Party's cultural reputation will linger long after.
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