After the S.F. exodus, these are the groups of people who are coming back
Between 2020 and 2022, thousands of people left San Francisco as part of a pandemic- and remote work-fueled exodus from the city. And while recent state data suggests the recovery is stalled out, a new dataset from the Census says otherwise.
It also shows what kind of people have been most likely to return.
The Chronicle analyzed detailed data from the U.S. Census Bureau released today that estimates populations each year by age, sex, race and ethnicity. To determine the demographic groups most likely to have come back from their pandemic exodus, the Chronicle examined percent changes in population groups between 2020 and 2022 — the year the city's population hit a low — and again between 2022 and 2024.
Overall, San Francisco's estimated 2024 population of just under 828,000 is still about 6% lower than April 2020's 878,000. But it's 1.6% higher than its 2022 low of just over 814,000.
Not all growth came from back-migration. The group that grew the most between 2022 and 2024 was Asian females between 70 and 79 — a group whose population also grew between 2020 and 2022, part of a trend in aging populations in both San Francisco and nationwide.
But the next few fastest growing demographic groups suggest some 'bouncing back'.
Top among those were Hispanic females between 25 and 29. The cohort's population declined by 14% in the two years that the pandemic shut down much of city life — part of a trend among all racial and ethnic groups in the late twenties age bracket.
But since July of 2022, the number of Hispanic females between 25 and 29 increased by almost 10%. While that leaves the total number still about 5% below what it was in 2020, it's one of the largest gains in the last two years among groups that lost people during the pandemic.
Broadly, all kinds of people aged 20 to 24 also returned in large numbers in the last two years as well, likely due to a bounce back in the number of college students on campuses in the city.
And some types of people returned in such numbers that they actually gained population between 2020 and 2024: Asian females between 35 and 39 and Asian males between 40 and 44 each lost population between 2020 and 2022 — both around just 4% — but gained even more in the two years after. That increase meant both groups saw 2% increases between 2020 and 2024.
Still, at least one group that left largely stayed away: younger white people. Around a quarter of white residents in their late 20s and early 30s, and to a lesser degree Asian residents in the same cohort, left and haven't returned to the city.
From 2020 to 2024, the non-Hispanic white population declined nationwide too — but only by about 1%.
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