Goldman Sachs expects OPEC8+ to raise oil output by 0.55 mb/d in September
The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is expected to keep its production quota unchanged after September, the investment bank said in a note.
(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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Arabian Post
5 minutes ago
- Arabian Post
OPEC+ Output Boost Sparks Worries Over Oversupply Impact
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced plans to raise its production output by 547,000 barrels per day, effective from September. The decision, which came in line with market expectations, has raised fresh concerns about the potential for a global oversupply, especially as fears mount over the long-term impact of economic challenges driven by the US-led trade war. Brent crude dipped toward $69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $67, reflecting a sharp pullback following the announcement. The decision to increase output marks a shift in OPEC+ strategy, after several months of production cuts aimed at stabilising oil prices during periods of uncertain demand. However, with global economic headwinds, particularly from trade tensions and slowing growth in major economies, questions are now being raised about whether this increase in supply could overwhelm demand. ADVERTISEMENT Analysts have pointed out that the ongoing US-China trade conflict may be having a profound effect on global energy consumption. The trade war, which has led to tariffs and retaliatory measures between the two largest economies, continues to disrupt global supply chains and dampen business activity. Slower growth in industrial production and manufacturing in key markets has prompted concerns that energy demand could continue to weaken in the face of broader economic struggles. The increase in production from OPEC+ countries, particularly from the likes of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, comes at a critical juncture for global oil markets. While the move was made to ease rising prices and provide some breathing room for oil-dependent economies, the effect of this policy shift is complex. Economists argue that by adding more barrels to an already fragile market, OPEC+ could inadvertently drive down prices further, straining the economic recovery in various parts of the world. For the time being, the immediate impact of the decision has been reflected in market reactions, with investors showing caution. Oil futures have displayed heightened volatility in response to these developments, as traders remain uncertain about how the oil market will balance the twin pressures of increased supply and potential demand weakness. The decision was met with mixed reactions from within OPEC+ itself, with some members pushing for a more aggressive increase in output, while others expressed concerns about the potential for exacerbating the supply glut. The divergence of views within the coalition underscores the challenges facing the organisation as it attempts to navigate global economic headwinds. Some member states with economies heavily reliant on oil exports may welcome the production increase as a means to inject more revenue into their national coffers. However, the overall effect on oil prices may ultimately prove counterproductive, especially as the US energy sector continues to grow and exert pressure on global markets. The decision by OPEC+ to increase output by this amount is also raising questions about the future of production cuts and supply management. The group has made strides to curtail output in recent years in a bid to boost prices, but with uncertainty surrounding demand forecasts, it remains to be seen whether these additional barrels will be absorbed by the market or contribute to further price erosion. Some market watchers have speculated that the OPEC+ move could be an attempt to pre-emptively counterbalance a potential slowdown in demand as a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions. The trade war, for instance, has prompted governments to enact policies aimed at reducing energy consumption and shifting toward greener, more sustainable energy sources, all of which could place long-term downward pressure on fossil fuel consumption. Amid these shifting dynamics, some experts are also questioning whether OPEC+ will be able to continue its production increase strategy without facing backlash from consumers and governments alike. With many nations already feeling the strain of high fuel prices, there is a growing sentiment that increasing output may not be the best course of action, particularly in light of concerns about the broader economic slowdown.
Economy ME
33 minutes ago
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Crude oil prices decline to $69.4 as OPEC+ increases production levels
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Zawya
an hour ago
- Zawya
China's independent oil firms elbow into Iraq's majors-dominated market
SINGAPORE/BAGHDAD - China's independent oil companies are ramping up operations in Iraq, investing billions of dollars in OPEC's number two producer even as some global majors have scaled back from a market dominated by Beijing's big state-run firms. Drawn by more lucrative contract arrangements, smaller Chinese producers are on track to double their output in Iraq to 500,000 barrels per day by around 2030, according to estimates by executives at four of the firms, a figure not previously reported. For Baghdad, which is also seeking to lure global giants, the growing presence of the mostly privately run Chinese players marks a shift as Iraq comes under growing pressure to accelerate projects, according to multiple Iraqi energy officials. In recent years, Iraq's oil ministry had pushed back on rising Chinese control over its oilfields. For the smaller Chinese firms, managed by veterans of China's state heavyweights, Iraq is an opportunity to leverage lower costs and faster development of projects that may be too small for Western or Chinese majors. With meagre prospects in China's state-dominated oil and gas industry, the overseas push mirrors a pattern by Chinese firms in other heavy industries to find new markets for productive capacity and expertise. Little-known players including Geo-Jade Petroleum Corp , United Energy Group, Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas Group and Anton Oilfield Services Group made a splash last year when they won half of Iraq's exploration licensing rounds. Executives at smaller Chinese producers say Iraq's investment climate has improved as the country becomes more politically stable and Baghdad is keen to attract Chinese as well as Western companies. Iraq wants to boost output by more than half to over 6 million bpd by 2029. China's CNPC alone accounts for more than half of Iraq's current production at massive fields including Haifaya, Rumaila and West Qurna 1. PROFIT-SHARING, RISK TOLERANCE Iraq's shift a year ago to contracts based on profit-sharing from fixed-fee agreements - an attempt to accelerate projects after ExxonMobil and Shell scaled back - helped lure Chinese independents. These smaller firms are nimbler than the big Chinese companies and more risk-tolerant than many companies that might consider investing in the Gulf economy. Chinese companies offer competitive financing, cut costs with cheaper Chinese labour and equipment and are willing to accept lower margins to win long-term contracts, said Ali Abdulameer at state-run Basra Oil Co, which finalises contracts with foreign firms. "They are known for rapid project execution, strict adherence to timelines and a high tolerance for operating in areas with security challenges," he said. 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Muwafaq Abbas, former crude operations manager at Basra Oil, expressed concern about transparency and technical standards among Chinese firms, which he said have faced criticism for relying heavily on Chinese staff and relegating Iraqis to lower-paid roles. To be sure, some Western firms are returning to Iraq: TotalEnergies announced a $27 billion project in 2023, and BP is expected to spend up to $25 billion to redevelop four Kirkuk fields in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, Reuters reported. (Reporting by Chen Aizhu in Singapore, Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad, and Aref Mohammed in Basra; Editing by Tony Munroe and William Mallard)
