US producer prices rise modest 2.6% in May with inflationary pressures still mild
The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it its consumers — rose 2.6% in May 2024. Producer prices rose 0.1% from April to May after dropping 0.2% the month before.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, wholesale costs were up 0.1% from April and 3% from May 2024.
The readings were slightly lower than economists had forecast.
The report came out a day after the Labor Department said that consumer prices rose a modest 0.1% last month from April and 2.4% from a year earlier.
Since returning to the office, Trump has rolled out 10% tariffs on nearly every country in the world as well as specific levies on steel, aluminum and autos. Importers in the United States pay the taxes and pass them along to consumers via higher prices when they can. For that reason, economists expect inflation to pick up later this year.
So far, his tariffs don't seem to have had much of an impact on prices overall.
Wholesale prices can offer an early look at where consumer inflation might be headed. Economists also watch it because some of its components, notably health care and financial services, flow into the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index.
Inflation began to flare up for the first time in decades in 2021, as the economy roared back with unexpected strength from COVID-19 lockdowns. That prompted the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs helped bring inflation down from the peaks it reached in 2022, and last year the Fed felt comfortable enough with the progress to cut rates three times.
But it has turned cautious this year while it waits to see the inflationary impact of Trump's trade policies. The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Reuters
19 minutes ago
- Reuters
EU Russia sanctions add fuel to red-hot global diesel market
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U.S. diesel demand, based on a four-week average, has been nearly 5% higher so far in 2025 than a year ago at 3.8 million barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, India's diesel consumption in May climbed 2.1% from a year earlier and China's demand appeared to be strong in June, judging by high refinery crude processing. This is a far cry from the weak environment many imagined we might be seeing after Trump escalated his global trade war. One major support for refining margins in recent months has been low diesel stocks. Combined inventories of diesel in the United States, Europe and Singapore are around 20% below their 10-year average. Diesel stocks typically build during the northern hemisphere summer, when refinery output is at its highest. Beyond the mixed demand picture, there are a host of other reasons for the slow diesel inventory build. These include unplanned refinery outages, such as Israel's 197,000-barrels per day refinery in Haifa that was hit during the 12-day war with Iran in June, and the closure of the 113,000-bpd Lindsey refinery in northeast England following its owner's bankruptcy. The global shortage in heavy and medium crude oil grades, which have higher diesel yields, has further limited refining output. The shortage is the result of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude exports, a drop in Canadian output due to wildfires and lower exports of those grades by OPEC members. The outlook for diesel was further complicated last week after the EU adopted its 18th package of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine. The measures, aimed at limiting Moscow's revenue from oil exports, included an import ban on refined products made from Russian crude. The ban, which would likely kick in next year, seeks to close a loophole that Russia has been exploiting since the EU halted most imports of the country's crude and refined products in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia accounted for 40% of Europe's diesel imports in 2021, representing nearly a quarter of the region's total consumption. To address the shortfall following the 2022 ban, Europe increased diesel imports from China, India and Turkey. At the same time, those three countries sharply increased imports of cheap Russian crude oil, which meant Europe was effectively buying products made from Russian feedstock. Indian refiners, which accounted for 16% of Europe's imports of diesel and jet fuel last year, are set to be particularly hard hit by the latest ban, as 38% of India's crude imports in 2024 were from Russia, according to Kpler data. The ban would likely have a smaller impact on imports by Turkey, where Russian crude tends to be used by refineries that supply the domestic market. Plants that export fuel to Europe tend to process non-Russian crude. The main winners will likely be Gulf states. The new EU ban exempts countries that are net exporters of crude, even if they import Russian oil. This would allow refineries in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait to increase exports to Europe, taking market share from Indian competitors. The most likely outcome from these new sanctions, whose details have yet to be specified, is a reorganization of global diesel shipping flows. Indian refiners, including the giant 1.2 million Reliance refining complex in Jamnagar, will need to find new outlets for their fuels. This will likely include markets in Africa, where Indian operators would be competing for market share with Nigeria's newly-built 650,000-bpd Dangote refinery, the continent's largest. At the same time, Middle Eastern refiners will direct more diesel towards Europe and less fuel towards closer Asian markets. This, in turn, will likely lead to higher freight costs – and that could ultimately push up prices at the pump in Europe. This situation would get even more complicated if President Trump follows through on the threat to hit countries that buy Russian oil with a 100% tariff if Moscow doesn't agree to stop the fighting in Ukraine by September. This all means that even if oil demand begins to falter, the combination of low global diesel inventories and tightening sanctions on Russia will likely support diesel prices and refining margins in the months ahead. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI),, opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI, opens new tab can help you keep up. 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Reuters
19 minutes ago
- Reuters
Fed rates are going nowhere fast
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BreakingNews.ie
19 minutes ago
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Trump and von der Leyen agree EU-US deal on US President's Scotland visit
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