How Trump Primed His Base to Turn Against Him
In his first term, President Donald Trump was assiduous in courting his base of committed supporters, often at the expense of voters who were persuadable. Those decisions helped lose him the 2020 election.
Trump isn't doing much more to reach out to the center in his second term, but he is more willing to snub his core backers. In recent weeks alone, he has flouted his longtime claims of being anti-war by joining an Israeli bombing campaign against Iran; dropped his demand that Ukraine make concessions and worked to supply it with weapons against Russia; endured an acrimonious breakup with his high-profile, deep-pocketed pal Elon Musk; and used his One Big Beautiful Bill Act to slash entitlements, which he had claimed he'd never do.
Each of these has brought grumbling from subsets of his coalition, but none has been so sustained as the backlash over the administration's reversal on releasing the so-called Epstein files. Now some of Trump's most ardent backers are angry at him for purportedly hiding information, and he, in turn, is lashing out at them. 'The Radical Left Democrats have hit pay dirt, again!' he wrote in a lengthy Truth Social missive this morning. 'Their new SCAM is what we will forever call the Jeffrey Epstein Hoax, and my PAST supporters have bought into this 'bullshit,' hook, line, and sinker.' Thinking about why this schism has emerged, and whether it will last, is helpful for understanding Trump's political appeal and future.
What exactly these files might contain is not clear. One theory is that they include a list of famous men for whom Epstein, the late financier and sex offender, procured underage girls for sex. (Epstein's 2019 death in a federal jail in New York City was ruled a suicide, but public doubts about its circumstances have persisted ever since.) Although Epstein had many famous friends, some of whom flew on his plane or visited his private island, no obvious evidence that such a client list exists has emerged.
But interest in the files has been whetted largely by Trump and his allies. Before entering the government, FBI Director Kash Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino, both spread dark rumors about cover-ups related to Epstein and demanded the release of the names of his associates. Trump said during the campaign that he would publish materials related to Epstein—though in retrospect, his hesitation to fully commit during a June 2024 interview is conspicuous. In February, Attorney General Pam Bondi said that the Epstein client list was 'sitting on my desk right now to review.' Now her Justice Department says it doesn't exist. Trump claims he can't believe anyone is still talking about the story.
There are a few reasons this story has managed to stick in Trump's side in a way others have not. The first is that, unlike many of the other conspiracy theories propounded by Trump and his allies, questions about Epstein's cause of death and what secrets the government might be keeping are acceptable in polite company. Like Lee Harvey Oswald's murder by Jack Ruby, the death of a man connected to so many powerful people just seems weird, even if it was actually suicide. In a recent Economist /YouGov poll, 79 percent of Americans support releasing all the Epstein documents. Two-thirds believe the government is covering up evidence about Epstein. A separate YouGov poll found that 39 percent of Americans believe Epstein was murdered, 40 percent aren't sure, and only 20 percent believe he killed himself. And Democrats are eager to fan the flames, this week forcing House Republicans to take a vote on releasing the files. (The GOP majority voted it down.)
Second, the administration's behavior indicates that officials are hiding something, though probably not a client list. Good reasons may exist not to release all of the materials: For example, they likely contain privileged grand-jury information. They may include witnesses who testified confidentially. Very clearly, information about underage victims of sex crimes is involved.
But Trump's frenzied insistence that there's nothing to see suggests that there are secrets he'd like to keep. The men were, by Trump's account, pals for a time—and he was well aware of Epstein's reputation. 'I've known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy,' Trump told New York magazine in 2002. 'He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.' This relationship makes him a bad messenger for dismissing the story, but no other official has the credibility with MAGA voters that he does.
Earlier this month, the FBI released 'full raw' video from the jail where Epstein died, saying it showed that no one entered his area in the time around his death. But Wired reports that the video was neither raw nor full: It was edited to remove almost three minutes of footage, in the most interest-piquing splice since Watergate's 18-and-a-half-minute gap.
Third, and perhaps most important, the questions about Epstein cut directly to the core of Trump's political appeal. Although many of his supporters (or should we say 'PAST supporters'?) opposed military raids, like the Iran bombing, and support for Ukraine, their affection for him is not about policy. It's personal. His fundamental proposition to voters was: I will tell you what the other politicians refuse to tell you. That's why backers hailed his 'authenticity' and 'honesty,' even though he was the most prolific liar to ever occupy the Oval Office—no small feat.
Trump has spent a decade telling Americans that they can't trust the government. He's said a 'deep state' of unelected officials is plotting against them and hiding information. He's told them they can't trust what they've been told about vaccines, the John F. Kennedy assassination, or what they saw with their own eyes on January 6, 2021. Now Trump wants the nation to just trust a bunch of government officials without seeing evidence to back it up. (If it were true, as he claims, that the Epstein material is a hoax by government officials, you'd think he'd want to investigate that, as he has in far-less- credible instances.)
His gambit might work. The power of polarization and affective partisanship is strong and tends to draw people back to their corners. Already, some of the MAGA media are moving on and falling in line. But even if the whole flap leaves only a small dent in Trump's armor, it reveals an irreconcilable conflict in his political identity. Running against power is a smart campaign trick, but once you're in office, you can't keep blaming others for things that the government does. The buck stops with you, whether you like it or not.
Today's News
President Donald Trump said that it is 'highly unlikely' that he will fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, after indicating yesterday that he would.
The Senate is poised to pass a package that would result in a combined $9 billion in funding cuts for international aid and public broadcasting.
Israel launched air strikes on Damascus, Syria, and said it aimed to protect the Druze religious minority in the area, which has been clashing with the Syrian government.
Dispatches
Evening Read
I Left My Church—And Found Christianity
By Monty Bennett
For many Americans, gay marriage feels like a settled issue. For Southern Baptists and others who share their theology, the question of the legality of gay marriage is still open. In their view, political and theological opposition is the only possible Christian response to gay marriage, and continuing to challenge marriage equality is a moral duty. The Church they have shaped has no room for the alternative path that many gay Christians have found: not leaving our religion, but embracing our sexuality alongside our faith.
I grew up in conservative, evangelical churches. For my undergraduate degree, I attended Union University, a Southern Baptist school in Jackson, Tennessee. I graduated in 2013, and in the years leading up to Obergefell I saw how the growing cultural acceptance of same-sex relationships was haunting Southern Baptist leaders.
Shop around. Once a place of utility, the supermarket is now an object of obsession, Ellen Cushing writes. What does your favorite grocery store say about you?
Get closer. Your friends make your life better, Adrienne Matei wrote in 2023. So why not turn them into your neighbors?
Play our daily crossword.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Los Angeles Times
23 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
U.N. investigator says U.S. sanctions over her criticism of Israel will seriously impact her life
ROME — An independent U.N. investigator and outspoken critic of Israel's policies in Gaza says that the sanctions recently imposed on her by the Trump administration will have serious impacts on her life and work. Francesca Albanese, the U.N. special rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza, is a member of a group of experts chosen by the 47-member U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva. She is tasked with probing human rights abuses in the Palestinian territories and has been vocal about what she has described as the 'genocide' by Israel against Palestinians in Gaza. Both Israel and the United States, which provides military support to its close ally, have strongly denied that accusation. Washington has decried what it called a 'campaign of political and economic warfare' against the U.S. and Israel, and earlier this month imposed sanctions on Albanese, following an unsuccessful U.S. pressure campaign to force the international body to remove her from her post. 'It's very serious to be on the list of the people sanctioned by the U.S.,' Albanese told The Associated Press in Rome on Tuesday, adding that individuals sanctioned by the U.S. cannot have financial interactions or credit cards with any American bank. When used in 'a political way,' she said the sanctions 'are harmful, dangerous.' 'My daughter is American. I've been living in the U.S. and I have some assets there. So of course, it's going to harm me,' Albanese said. 'What can I do? I did everything I did in good faith, and knowing that, my commitment to justice is more important than personal interests.' The sanctions have not dissuaded Albanese from her work — or her viewpoints — and in July, she published a new report, focused on what she defines as 'Israel's genocidal economy' in Palestinian territories. 'There's an entire ecosystem that has allowed Israel's occupation to thrive. And then it has also morphed into an economy of genocide,' she said. In the conclusion of the report, Albanese calls for sanctions against Israel and prosecution of 'architects, executors and profiteers of this genocide.' Albanese noted a recent shift in perceptions in Europe and around the world following an outcry over images of emaciated children in Gaza and reports of dozens of hunger-related deaths after nearly 22 months of war. 'It's shocking,' she said. 'I don't think that there are words left to describe what's happening to the Palestinian people.' The war began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 people captive. Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed over 60,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between combatants and civilians but says more than half the dead are women and children. Nearly 21 months into the conflict that displaced the vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people, the United Nations says hunger is rampant after a lengthy Israeli blockade on food entering the territory and medical care is extremely limited. Zampano writes for the Associated Press.
Los Angeles Times
23 minutes ago
- Los Angeles Times
French ministers condemn ‘excessive use of force' after Jewish youths were removed from a flight
PARIS — A summer camp counselor has accused Spanish law enforcement officers of using brute force against her during the removal of a group of French Jewish teenagers from a plane bound for Paris from Spain, French government ministers and her lawyer said Wednesday. Ministers Aurore Bergé and Benjamin Haddad met with the counselor on Tuesday after French authorities last week contacted the CEO of the Spanish low-cost airline Vueling and the Spanish ambassador to France to determine whether the youngsters had been discriminated against on the basis of their religion. Forty-four minors and eight adult French passengers were kicked off flight V8166 from Valencia to Paris on July 23, for what Spanish police and the airline described as unruly behavior. But the ministers said the counselor, who asked to remain anonymous and is described as 'shocked,' disputed that account. They say she described the crew as hostile from the outset, saying a child briefly sang but stopped when asked, and claimed no behavior warranted the group's removal or the Civil Guard's response. 'No action justified the disembarkation or the excessive and brutal use of force by the Civil Guard against the young woman, who has just been notified of 15 days of total incapacity to work,' the ministers said in a statement, adding that her testimony had been corroborated by other passengers on board. The counselor's lawyer, Muriel Ouaknine Melki, told the Associated Press that she was left with bruises on her legs, arms and body after she was brutally handcuffed and held in an arm lock. Ouaknine Melki said her team is collecting evidence before lodging a complaint. The Club Kineret association, which organized the summer camp, did not immediately answer requests from The Associated Press for direct testimonies from people who were removed from the plane. A Vueling spokesperson said the passengers were removed after the minors repeatedly tampered with the plane's emergency equipment and interrupted the crew's safety demonstration. A Civil Guard spokesperson said the plane captain ordered the group's removal at Valencia's Manises Airport after they repeatedly ignored crew instructions. Bergé and Haddad also lashed out at a statement from the Spanish Minister of Transport 'equating French children of Jewish faith with Israeli citizens, as if that somehow justified the treatment they received.' Spanish Transport Minister Óscar Puente has deleted a tweet from July 26 in which he called the minors 'Israeli brats.' 'At a time when antisemitic acts have been on the rise across Europe since the terrorist attacks carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, in Israel, the ministers call on Vueling and the Spanish authorities to fully investigate and clarify the events,' Bergé and Haddad said. 'We will never accept the normalization of antisemitism. We will always stand with our fellow citizens who suffer from antisemitic hatred, and we will never compromise.' Vueling has denied that the incident was related to the passengers' religion. Some Israeli news outlets reported that the students were Jewish and that their removal was religiously motivated, a claim that was repeated by an Israeli minister online. The Civil Guard spokesperson said the agents involved were not aware of the group's religious affiliation. Petrequin writes for the Associated Press.
The Hill
23 minutes ago
- The Hill
Texas GOP unveils new planned congressional map
Texas Republicans on Wednesday unveiled a proposal for new congressional maps as a redistricting battle heats up across the country. The maps are expected to create five new House seats that President Trump won by double digits in November. Trump had pressed Lone Star State Republicans to redraw the lines to protect the party's narrow 219-212 House majority in next year's midterms. State Rep. Todd Hunter (R) filed the proposal as Texas lawmakers met for a special session. The maps could endanger Democrats' efforts to take back the lower chamber next year. In response to the moves in Texas, Democrats in California and elsewhere have floated their own redistricting possibilities, heating up a redistricting war ahead of the midterms.
