Nvidia's stock price is soaring. Could Silicon Valley home prices follow?
The Silicon Valley housing market is closely linked to the booms and busts of its tech industry, real estate agents told the Chronicle. So far this year, due in large part to the Trump administration, the industry has experienced a whirlwind of changes. That's put many would-be homebuyers on guard, resulting in a market where homes still sell quickly, but where competition isn't as fierce as before.
On the home price-boosting side of the ledger, Silicon Valley giants like Nvidia and Meta have seen soaring stock prices, making their workers and investors flush with wealth they can use to buy a $1.7 million home in cash. Plus the Trump administration's support of cryptocurrency has sent the value of Bitcoin to record highs, adding to investors' wealth.
Take Nvidia for example. The company, which is now valued at more than $4 trillion, had a closing stock price Thursday of about $164 per share, enormously more than the $10.50 price on July 10, 2020. Someone who invested $100,000 in the company five years ago would have more than $1.5 million now. And with many Nvidia employees receiving stock as part of their compensation, the company has likely single-handedly created a new stock of Bay Area millionaires, leading to a more competitive field of homebuyers.
That growth has helped make the home values in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties the highest among large counties in the U.S. And while mortgage rates are still high, keeping many potential buyers out of the market, the buyers still in the market are facing less competition for homes, said Nikki Edwards, a Realtor with Silicon Valley-based EQ1 Real Estate.
'For those who are able and willing to buy, it's a good opportunity — one of the best opportunities we've seen since the winter of 2023,' she said.
But it's not all good news for tech workers and investors. Some companies' stocks have only recently recovered after crashing in April, when President Donald Trump announced a wave of tariffs, and for most that are growing, they haven't seen close to Nvidia's level of success. Layoffs have been another concern, with Santa Clara tech company Intel announcing this week it was cutting nearly 600 Northern California jobs. Several tech giants have been downscaling since mid-2022, with Microsoft and Google conducting another round of layoffs buyouts this year.
'All the (tech) employees felt quite invulnerable and quite confident … that they were very safe (pre-2022), so they could take big swings,' said John Young, a Menlo Park-based Realtor with Golden Gate Sotheby's International Realty. 'Now, it's less so the case.'
Mortgage rates are also still high, forcing homebuyers who aren't at the top of the income range to decide whether a South Bay home is worth a five-figure monthly payment.
The result is a 'mixed bag,' said Will Klopp, managing director of Compass' Silicon Valley office. Home value growth in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties has sputtered in recent months, according to data from real estate brokerage Zillow, a trend mirrored in much of the rest of the country.
'It's kind of a split market,' Klopp said. 'Some homes are selling quickly with multiple offers, while others linger and require price reductions.'
Political uncertainty could also have a chilling effect on the Silicon Valley housing market, said Sandy Jamison, a real estate broker with Tuscana Properties in Campbell. She pointed to the Trump administration's immigration policies, noting that many of the region's residents are on work visas. With the future unclear, some workers on visas are hesitant to buy or sell a home without knowing whether they'll be able to remain in the country.
'(There's) a lot of change happening at the macro level right now that is putting a lot of people in (a state of) fear,' Jamison said. 'And what do people do when they have fear? They just freeze up and do nothing.'
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