New poll shows Zohran Mamdani beating Andrew Cuomo in NYC Democratic mayoral primary
There's good news for the Zohran Mamdani campaign Monday morning as New Yorkers get set to vote in Tuesday's Democratic mayoral primary election.
A new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill poll has Mamdani neck and neck with Cuomo, with Cuomo slightly ahead in the first round. But Mamdani ultimately beats Cuomo in its ranked choice voting simulation after eight rounds.
The poll has Cuomo with 35% in the first round, followed by Mamdani with 32%. Comptroller Brad Lander is the only other candidate with double digit support at 13%, followed by City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams with 8% and Scott Stringer with 3%.
The poll finds Mamdani's support has grown month-to-month from 22% to 32%, whereas Cuomo gained one point in the same period, 34% to 35%.
The trouble for Cuomo occurs in the ranked choice voting simulation, which the Emerson poll shows Mamdani picking up 18 points as the rounds go by, as opposed to 12 points for Cuomo. That's enough to put Mamdani over the 50% threshold by the eighth round, according to the poll.
The poll has a first round margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%, and a final round margin of error of 3.6%.
"Over five months, Mamdani's support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. "In the ranked choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo's 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll."
A separate Marist poll released just last week had Cuomo remaining the front runner in the increasingly tight race. In that poll, Cuomo remained the first-choice candidate for 38% of likely Democratic primary voters, followed by Mamdani at 27%, which was up from 18% from the prior month.
The Marist poll had Cuomo passing the 50% threshold in the seventh round of ranked choice voting.
All of this adds to the uncertainty and anticipation in this race, where it may take several weeks before we finally know the winner.
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