How long can Koizumi stay frenemies with the agriculture lobby?

Japan Times

11-06-2025

Three weeks have passed since Shinjiro Koizumi was named agriculture minister, and it's hard to think of a day when he didn't make the headlines — for anything from an impromptu announcement to the press to a visit to a local supermarket.
It's not just about his photogenic looks and deft use of traditional and social media. What's often depicted is a man taking on one of the most politically influential groups in the country — Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA).
'Never in my life have I thought about rice so much every day, from morning to night,' he said in an interview published in Bungei Shunju, a monthly magazine. 'I am prepared to take any measure without being bound by precedents.'
Since his tenure as chairman of the agricultural panel of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party from 2015 to 2017, Koizumi, 44, has advocated for a reform of the agriculture sector.
In the grand scheme of things, his previous attempts at transforming the industry were largely seen as inconsequential. This time around, his performance as farm minister will likely have an impact on his future career plans.
Three key sources of potential friction loom over Koizumi and his relationship with the agriculture lobby: government policy over rice production, the structure of agriculture cooperatives, and the logistics of rice distribution.
So far, Koizumi has taken an aggressive stance by advocating for a different approach to rice production and greater international competitiveness in the domestic rice industry.
This reform-oriented approach was what led Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to name him farm minister after his predecessor's rice gaffe. Both Koizumi and Ishiba share an appetite to overhaul practices that have long dominated Japan's farm sector — so much so that Ishiba was even called , in his own words, the 'worst farm minister' during his one-year tenure in the post in 2008-09.
While the Cabinet has just launched a probe to find out the reasons behind the latest rice price surge, experts have cited decadeslong government-led acreage reduction as a factor.
Amid declining consumption of rice, farmers were encouraged, through the provision of subsidies, to convert rice paddies to other crops. That endeavor sought to stabilize prices and protect the livelihoods of farmers. Imports of foreign rice was also kept low for a long period of time.
In exchange for votes, politicians representing rural constituencies promoted the interests of the agricultural sector to the central bureaucracy, fighting with the finance ministry to obtain budget concessions.
JA, the country's largest confederation of small and midsize farmers, backed the acreage reduction policy before it was discontinued in 2018 in favor of a switch to production 'in line with demand.'
However, despite the reversal, rice production continued to decline. But to this day, LDP lawmakers elected in rural constituencies still voice their fears over overproduction and a consequent drop in the price of rice that could hit farmers.
In this context, Koizumi has said that he would not rule out raising imports of foreign rice — a real bugbear for domestic farmers — or pushing for a pivot to rice exports.
Koizumi inspects a warehouse storing stockpiled rice in Kanagawa Prefecture on May 30. |
REUTERS
Despite a low overall food self-sufficiency rate of 38% in fiscal 2023, Japan produces most of the rice it consumes.
Koizumi is not just taking issues with the way rice is produced in the country, but also the business model of agriculture cooperatives as a whole.
Since his appointment, he has stressed JA should give priority to the interests of consumers.
'I would like to see farmers explore markets where they can sell their higher-value products,' he recently told a news conference. 'The group should rely on its business activities to make money, not on financial services.'
Sales of agricultural products under JA amounted to ¥4.5 trillion ($31 billion) in 2023, according to the most recent data. This is equivalent to 47% of the entire sector, including farmers who don't belong to any of JA's cooperatives.
It is also only a fraction of the funds JA handles through the financial services it provides, such as mutual aid insurance and credit. In the same year, the group respectively controlled a total of ¥79 trillion in holdings — a sum higher than those held by more well-known insurance companies — and ¥108 trillion in savings.
While a declining number of confederated farmers under JA has affected overall production and sales over the years, the group's insurance and credit business segments have been performing well.
Consistent with his 'consumer-first approach,' Koizumi has also set his sights on the rice distribution network, calling it opaque.
The initial delay in the sale of stockpiled rice was traced to bottlenecks in the distribution of the first batch in the hands of JA.
Late last month, in coordination with the agriculture ministry, the transport ministry set up a task force to facilitate the transportation of stockpiled rice to remove bottlenecks.
'The distribution of rice is way too complex, and there's something unclear in it,' Koizumi told reporters after a meeting with Ishiba last week. 'It's essential to thoroughly review all aspects of the current distribution system and reassess how it functions.'
Koizumi's often direct style of communication — in which he bypasses official channels of communication and directly addresses his followers on social media platform X — stands in sharp contrast with that of the JA, an association that has long operated under the radar of most consumers.
So far, the two sides have avoided any public flare-up, displaying an intent to work together to stabilize rice prices.
'We are very worried about the decline in rice consumption,' Toru Yamano, chairman of the Central Union of Agricultural Cooperatives and the face of JA, said last week. 'It's important to build an environment where consumers can purchase rice easily.'
Yamano crucially avoided any direct reference to the price of rice — based on the apparent conviction that it should be set by the market.
This was unlike Koizumi, who — just days into receiving his mandate — said consumers should be able to buy a 5-kilogram bag of stockpiled rice at ¥2,000.
'At this stage, it would be a mistake to make policy decisions because we need to be careful not to offend certain groups,' Koizumi told reporters during his first news conference at the farm ministry.
In another news conference, Koizumi fended off insinuations over his alleged clash with the lobby, blaming the media for stirring up such a perception.
'I understand that stoking anxiety works better as a business model,' he said. 'But we don't do business here. We are committed to policies that bring joy, and inspire and encourage farmers.'