MPC's bold pause: Pivoting Nigeria's economy from stability to growth

Zawya

03-03-2025

In recent years, Nigeria has embarked on comprehensive economic reforms to stabilise financial markets, achieve exchange rate convergence, and curb inflation.
At the heart of these efforts is the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), working in synergy with fiscal authorities to foster macroeconomic stability and lay the groundwork for sustainable growth.
In its efforts to tackle inflation, the CBN recently hosted the Monetary Policy Forum 2025, bringing together fiscal authorities, legislators, the private sector, development partners, subject-matter experts, and scholars. The forum, centered on the theme 'Managing the Disinflation Process,' served as a platform for collaborative discussions on strategies to curb inflation and stabilize the economy.
During the event, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso outlined the bank's primary focus on sustaining price stability, transitioning to an inflation-targeting framework, and implementing strategies to restore purchasing power and alleviate economic hardship. He emphasised that the apex bank is maintaining its disciplined approach to monetary policy, with the goal of curbing inflation and stabilising the economy in the face of ongoing challenges.
'These actions have yielded measurable progress: relative stability in the FX market, narrowing exchange rate disparities, and a rise in external reserves to over $40 billion as of December 2024,' Cardoso said.
He reiterated that the goal of the CBN is to ensure that monetary policy remains forward-looking, adaptive, and resilient. In addressing our economic challenges, collaboration is key: 'Managing disinflation amidst persistent shocks requires not only robust policies but also coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities to anchor expectations and maintain investor confidence,' the governor reiterated.
As it stands, Nigeria's economic trajectory is at a pivotal juncture. With inflation slowing, the naira appreciating, and a rebased GDP offering new insights into the economy's health, the CBN has made a bold decision — pausing its 12-month-long rate hike cycle.
A historic pause in tightening cycle
In February 2025, the MPC held benchmark interest rate at 27.5 percent, ending an aggressive rate hike cycle that saw rates soar by 875 basis points in just 12 months — the fastest tightening spree since 2001. This decision signals cautious optimism that the peak of Nigeria's inflation crisis is behind.
The results are noteworthy. According to Financial Derivatives Company (FDC), the naira appreciated by 26 percent to N1,505/$ at the parallel market between February 2024 and February 2025, driven by the CBN's high-interest rate strategy, which attracted short-term foreign portfolio investments (FPIs). Consequently, FPI inflows into Nigeria's stock market surged by 125 percent to N396.41 billion in December 2024 from N174.82 billion a year earlier.
However, like in most other spheres, there is a stark trade-off between stability and inclusive growth. Stability has come at a cost, which the apex banking sector regulator assures it is working assiduously to balance out
Lending rates hover around 30 percent, while the CBN's 50 percent Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) continues to squeeze liquidity, limiting banks' capacity to lend to productive sectors. While speculative foreign capital flows in, credit-starved businesses and households struggle to access affordable financing.
Despite that, the Johnson Chukwu-led Cowry Assets Management Limited stated:
'Beyond inflation dynamics, the MPC acknowledged stability in the foreign exchange market, with the naira appreciating
and official and parallel market rates converging. This improvement is supported by recent interventions from the CBN, including the launch of the Electronic Foreign
Exchange Matching System (B-Match) and the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code, both designed to enhance market transparency and liquidity. Post-MPC decision, the secondary market was predominantly bullish on Thursday, with the average yields of treasury bills and bonds declining to 20.21 percent and 19.79 percent, respectively, from premeeting yields of 21.96 percent and 19.92 percent.'
CBN's pursuit of single-digit inflation
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) commended the MPC for its decision to pause rate hikes.
Dr Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of CPPE, stated that the CBN's decision aligns with the centre's expectations.
However, he called for future reductions in rates and expressed reservations regarding the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR).
'Given the recently rebased inflation rate computation, we have seen a decline in inflation to 24.48 percent, which is currently lower than the monetary policy rate. It makes sense to retain the rates to avoid further exacerbating interest rate pressures on businesses and citizens with bank exposures. Going forward, we should begin to see a moderation in the rates and a relaxation of these tightening measures,' he said.
Dr. Yusuf noted that prices of some commodities, including energy, diesel, Petroleum Motor Spirit (PMS), and pharmaceuticals, are beginning to drop. He highlighted that maintaining exchange rate stability could lead to further price reductions in other products.
'The inflation outlook appears better, and we expect the CBN to relax some of these rates by the next MPC meeting,' he added.
Taming inflation remains a cornerstone of the CBN's monetary policy. Following subsidy removals and currency adjustments in 2023, inflation soared to 34.8 percent in December 2024.
A recent rebasing by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in early 2025 recalibrated the inflation figure to 24.48 percent for January 2025, offering a more accurate reflection of Nigeria's inflationary environment.
Cardoso expressed confidence that the downward trend will persist, with the ambitious target of achieving single-digit inflation in the medium term.
Exchange rate convergence
One of Nigeria's boldest reforms has been the unification of multiple exchange rate windows. Under President Bola Tinubu's administration, the move aimed to eliminate arbitrage opportunities and boost investor confidence. The CBN reinforced this policy by clearing a $7 billion FX backlog and recalibrating its monetary policy tools, enhancing market transparency and stability.
The launch of the B-Match Electronic FX Matching System and the Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code further strengthened market confidence. As a result, the naira's convergence across official and parallel markets has narrowed significantly.
Beyond inflation and exchange rate management, the CBN has rolled out other critical reforms: Nigeria Foreign Exchange Code: Introduced to foster transparency and ethical practices in the FX market; discontinuation of direct interventions, aligning with global best practices in monetary policy implementation.
These reforms align with Nigeria's vision of achieving a $1 trillion economy by 2030, creating an enabling environment for private sector-led growth.
Fiscal and monetary synergy: The long-awaited alignment
For the first time in decades, Nigeria's fiscal and monetary authorities are aligning policies to tackle economic imbalances. The removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, and fiscal consolidation measures are complemented by the CBN's tight monetary policy.
Finance Minister Wale Edun highlighted this synergy at the World Economic Forum in Davos, stating that Nigeria aims to double its economic growth within the next two years to lift millions out of poverty. The government's shift towards encouraging private investment over excessive borrowing signals a new era of coordinated economic management.
What lies ahead?
With the next MPC meeting slated for May 19-20, 2025, the CBN faces a defining crossroads: maintain stability or pivot towards inclusive growth. The markets are already pricing in the possibility of rate cuts, with Treasury bill and bond yields declining post-MPC decision. However, the CBN remains firm — any rate cuts will be contingent on sustained inflation deceleration.
Adetilewa Adebajo, the CEO of CFG Advisory stated that, 'Relative stability has been achieved in the economy. To build on this, we must implement deliberate industrial policies to achieve import substitution in targeted sectors of the economy. We must replicate the success with cement, fertilizer and petroleum refining.
'A suggestion is to put in place a roadmap for the three massive sugar refineries in Nigeria owned by Dangote, BUA and FMN, to stop importing raw sugar. This is a potential FX earner and AfCFTA project, as the three refineries have capacity to meet regional demand. Deliberate policies therefore must be put in place to develop local supply chain with Nigerian farmers, in an effort to boost local sugar cane production, increase agricultural productivity and create employment along that value chain. Closing the output gap is the only way to achieving the desired Trillion Dollar Economy.'
'The pause in MPR hike signals that the CBN is ready to shift gears,' said Ayodeji Ebo, MD of Optimus by Afrinvest. 'But the real question is — does the CBN have the courage to prioritise growth over hot money?'
Tosin Ige, Head of Research at Proshare, echoed this sentiment, noting that while the CBN's inflation-first strategy has yielded positive real returns, the real economy still requires a lifeline.
In the meantime, Nigeria's economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of multiple shocks. However, resilience alone is not synonymous with growth. The success of Nigeria's economic reforms will depend on the CBN's ability to pivot from stabilisation to fostering inclusive, broad-based growth.
As 2025 unfolds, the burning question remains — will the CBN loosen its grip on rates to unlock credit for businesses, or will the pursuit of single-digit inflation continue to take precedence? The answer will shape Nigeria's economic narrative in the years to come.
By striking the right balance between stability and growth, Nigeria has the potential to emerge not only as Africa's largest economy but also as one of its most dynamic and inclusive.
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