Men's March Madness projections 2025: NCAA Tournament odds to win in the Final Four
Welcome to The Athletic's 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament projections, where you'll find every team's chances of advancing through each weekend of March Madness and cutting down the nets in San Antonio on April 7. These projections are based on 200,000 simulations of the 68-team bracket, which factors in a team's projected strength as well as its path to the national title. All projections are rounded to the nearest whole number. You can read more about the model at the bottom of the page. The projections will be updated after the completion of every tournament game.
The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Jacob Kupferman, Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
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Did Jon Rahm Cross Line With Outburst At LIV Golf UK Event?
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an hour ago
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an hour ago
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The Bounce Newsletter | This is The Athletic's daily NBA newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Bounce directly in your inbox. Chances are, if we have an in-person basketball conversation, I will steer it toward Ricky Davis, Jamal Crawford or Ronald 'Flip' Murray at some point. Today is Flip's 46th birthday. He was a walking bucket. There is a dearth of career highlight mixes on YouTube for him, but let this be a great entry to a fun rabbit hole. Happy birthday, Flip! Luka got shredded, LeBron is masterminding It would make sense if, after two-plus decades of LeBron James being a main figure (or the main figure) in NBA discourse (whether genuine or forced for ratings/clicks), one might be a little LeBron'd out at this point. At the same time, I find my LeBron fascination rejuvenated because of the awkwardness we see between him and the Lakers. James is entering his 23rd year in the NBA, and the Lakers have moved on to the Luka Dončić era after trading for the latter last season. The 26-year-old superstar gives the franchise a massive runway to work with, while the 40-year-old superstar is trying to figure out how to position himself to finish his career. And it doesn't seem like that will be with the Lakers, based on this offseason so far. Advertisement The Lakers seemingly ended up with Luka because Mavericks executive Nico Harrison did not believe Luka was committed to being in the proper shape to fit into the exec's ideal basketball identity. Following a nagging calf injury and perhaps deciding to jump in the gym with extra care for a little 'revenge body' glow-up (we've all been there after a breakup), Dončić now finds himself looking completely shredded and muscular on the cover of Men's Health magazine. Yup, that's Luka Dončić on the cover of Men's Health Mag 👀 [image or embed] — The Athletic (@ July 28, 2025 at 10:36 AM Normally, the 'best shape of his career' stuff is just preseason fodder and entirely laughable. 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Kuminga appears to be wanting a four-year deal, roughly in the $25 million annual zone — and more importantly, off the Warriors, to explore expanding his role elsewhere. Kuminga and coach Steve Kerr haven't exactly meshed. In another poll of front office personnel, Giddey's prospects were seen as something you'd rather invest in. His annual average was roughly $22.3 million. But 10 of the 16 executives polled said he should get a four- or five-year deal. Giddey had the best season of his young career, putting up 14.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game. But the career bests in 3-point percentage (37.8, previously 33.7) and true shooting percentage (57.0, previously 54.7) show why the intrigue and trust might be there more. Regardless, it feels like Giddey will eventually get his commitment from the Bulls, while we're not sure what is in store for Kuminga, Thomas and Grimes for long-term money or place of business. Maybe the qualifying-offer gamble ($7.9M for Kuminga, $6M for Thomas, $8.7M for Grimes) is worth the risk after all? Streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. ( Photo: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
