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New York Times
17 minutes ago
- New York Times
Live Updates: U.S. Hiring Remains Solid, Sign of a Resilient Economy
When the Federal Reserve sets monetary policy, it has two goals in mind: Keep inflation at 2 percent and ensure that the labor market is healthy. A stable labor market fortifies the Federal Reserve's case that it does not need to be in a hurry to lower borrowing costs, keeping the central bank on course to extend its pause on interest rate cuts when it meets later this month. June's jobs report, which showed employers adding 147,000 jobs for the month and the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.1 percent, underscores the economy's resilience and helps to dispel the notion that it is in need of immediate support. 'There is no urgency,' said Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 'They can keep pushing it out in the future,' she added on the timing of the Fed's next rate cut. The latest sign of a relatively sturdy labor market comes as President Trump directs a litany of attacks at Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, and the central bank more broadly for resisting his demands to immediately lower borrowing costs by a significant amount. Just in the last week, Mr. Trump called on Mr. Powell to resign and penned him a handwritten note blaming him for costing the country a 'fortune.' Part of the president's ire stems from the Fed keeping interest rates at current levels at a time when the government is trying to pass a massive package of tax cuts that is expected to balloon the deficit and increase what it costs the government to cover interest payments on the national debt. Already, the United States spends around $1 trillion a year to service those obligations. Mr. Powell has so far remained undeterred, telling an audience of policymakers, economists and investors at the European Central Bank's annual conference in Sintra, Portugal on Tuesday that as long as the economy is in 'solid shape,' the central bank thought it 'prudent' to wait and collect more data about how the economy is evolving in light of Mr. Trump's policies before taking any action. Asked directly about the president's pressure campaign on Tuesday's panel, Mr. Powell said he was 'very focused on just doing my job.' To restart interest rate cuts after an extended pause, which has been in place since January, officials at the Fed have laid out clear criteria. Either inflation, which is still elevated and at risk of moving higher because of tariffs, appears well enough contained or the labor market starts to meaningfully weaken. Inflation has stayed surprisingly mild in recent months, but most economic forecasters expect price pressures from Mr. Trump's tariffs to accelerate this summer. The threat of new levies continues to hang over the country's trading partners as the administration races toward a July 9 deadline to mint various deals. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump announced a preliminary pact with Vietnam. Tariffs are expected to raise inflation and also hurt growth, but Fed officials have started to diverge in terms of what the magnitude of the economic fallout might be. That has caused divisions regarding the timing of when the central bank should restart interest rate cuts, with two Trump-appointed officials in recent weeks making the case for a July cut if inflation stays muted. But other policymakers do not appear to be on board. Projections released in June showed that almost half of Fed officials forecast no cuts at all this year. A slim majority stuck to earlier estimates of half a percentage point worth of cuts. Thursday's jobs report wiped out any expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates in July, according to the federal funds futures market, and pushed back the projected timing of the first reduction to October. But economists have no yet ruled out interest rate cuts this year altogether. That is because there are nascent signs that the economy, while still solid, is slowing down. Private-sector hiring slowed in June overall, and the range of sectors still adding jobs stayed narrow. Health care, leisure and hospitality and state government accounted for a large share of the gains. The labor force also shrunk. One complication is that getting a clear read on the health of the labor market is likely to get more difficult in light of sweeping efforts by the Trump administration to limit the flow of people entering the United States, as well as its campaign to drive out immigrants already deeply rooted in the country. Monthly jobs growth is expected to slow, but later this year a more significant pullback in the pace may simply reflect a smaller labor force as opposed to weak demand for workers. Ms. Misra warned that immigration restrictions, coupled with tariffs, are likely to exacerbate price pressures, giving the Fed another reason to stand pat. 'They're going to want to see more data,' she said.
Bloomberg
18 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Volatility Gauge Hovers Near Lowest In Four Months on Strong Jobs Data
The Cboe VIX Index touched its lowest level in more than four months in early trading Thursday, after jobs data showing the US labor market is doing better than expected added to a rally that has pushed stocks to records. The volatility gauge was at 16.43 as of 10:41 a.m. in New York, as the S&P 500 puhsed higher by 0.8%. Wall Street's fear gauge opened below 16 at the lowest since Feb. 20.
Forbes
18 minutes ago
- Forbes
How To Create An Investment Offering To Raise Real Estate Capital
Aerial view of Willamet River running through downtown Portland Skyline, Oregon. (Photo by: Joe ... More Sohm/Visions of America/Universal Images Group via Getty Images)Once you've acquired a property and are generating consistent cash flow, you may begin thinking about how to scale. Whether you want to expand into larger deals or simply bring on new investors, building a strong investment offering is one of the most important tools you can have. It serves as a professional introduction in this world. It communicates who you are, what your deal is, and why others should join you. An effective investment offering is set up like a pitch and includes your business plan along with details showing your credibility. It shows that you can identify opportunities, execute a project, and deliver results. I've seen successful investors use these to build long-term relationships with investors and partners who buy in to the vision and opportunity. Start with the Story Every good pitch begins with a compelling story. What problem are you solving? Is there an underserved neighborhood that needs more retail or modern office space? Have you identified a mismanaged multifamily property in a prime location? Investors want to understand both the deal and why it matters. Explain to them why now may be the best time to act. Your story sets the tone, as it will lay out the opportunity and show that you've done your homework. Make sure to highlight your connection to the location, market insights, or anything unique that gives you an Insider's Edge. The more specific and grounded your story is, the more believable and compelling it will be. Introduce the Team Next, introduce who's behind the deal. If you're preparing a first investment offering, it can be a good idea to have a great partner and third party professionals. You'll be able to leverage their success to bring in capital. Even if you're newer to investing, lean into your strengths. Perhaps you've underwritten dozens of deals, walked countless properties, or have mentors guiding you through the process. These things can build confidence. Investors want to know that you take this seriously and have the support needed to succeed. Break Down the Deal Once the story and team are in place, you'll need to clearly explain the deal itself. This includes: Keep the numbers honest and conservative, as it will show you are transparent and realistic, which investors will appreciate. Provide context for your assumptions and back them up with market comps, construction estimates, or demographic trends. Define key financial terms as needed, especially if your investors aren't industry professionals. You should also clearly explain your exit strategy. Are you planning to hold long-term and refinance, or sell in five years? What's the projected timeline for investors to receive distributions, and what returns should they expect? Include a summary table or visual that clearly lays this out. Use a Professional Design Include easy-to-read fonts, consistent branding, and easy-to-read layouts so that it is easy for investors to review. Add visual elements like property photos, location maps, and financial charts. Tools like PowerPoint, Canva, or even a graphic designer can help you make it look professional. Finally, be ready to include additional materials in an appendix or data room. This might include detailed financial models, site plans, or sales comps. Some investors may want to look more closely at details before making a decision. Your investment offering is an important tool to have as you invest in commercial real estate. It can help you communicate clearly and build trust. If it's done well, it could attract plenty of investors to your deal. You'll be well positioned to attract the capital and partners needed to grow your real estate business.
