Tariff revenue is spiking. But who exactly is paying?
Why it matters: Knowing who is paying the tariffs will help investors gauge which companies will see profits squeezed — or protected — as trade tensions continue.
By the numbers: The government generated an extra $20 billion for each of the last two months, which could total $240 billion in additional revenue this year, according to Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities.
Where it's from: Motor vehicles brought in $3.4 billion, or over 14% of the $24.2 billion in total tariff revenue for May, according to data reviewed by Jason Miller, interim chair of supply chain management at Michigan State University.
Vehicle parts added $1.2 billion in tariff revenue, while lithium-ion electric vehicle batteries contributed nearly $480 million.
Case in point: GM disclosed $1.1 billion in tariff costs for the second quarter, which aligns with government data, Miller noted.
European automaker Volkswagen reported a $1.5 billion tariff hit and cut its outlook, citing fallout from President Trump's trade war.
Zoom out: What matters isn't just the tariff rate, but who pays along the chain: a foreign exporter, a U.S. importer, a distributor, or ultimately, the American consumer.
Within autos, "there just isn't the demand right now in order to justify essentially charging higher rates," Miller told Axios, which means that companies like GM and Ford may struggle to pass costs to consumers.
Zoom in: There are potential winners and losers in this trade war.
Industrials are exposed, said David Bianco, chief investment officer for the Americas at DWS, with $1 trillion in managed assets.
The biggest retailers will "gain market share" because they can negotiate favorable terms with suppliers, while smaller firms will struggle, he told Axios.
Health care, the worst-performing sector year-to-date, may continue lagging as inflation weighs on consumers.
Nvidia and other high-margin technology companies with carveouts are less vulnerable, according to Miller.
How it works: Who ultimately pays for the tariffs depends on supply and demand dynamics. There are two key factors.
Consumer demand: Weak demand means less pricing power, and companies may have to absorb the cost or risk losing customers.
Exporter supply: Retailers have more flexibility to shift supply chains, while manufacturers of complex goods are often locked in. Data show retailers more often eat tariff costs than exporters of machines, which require more intricate work and quality control, leaving exporters in a power position on pricing.
Yes, but: Pricing isn't static. Many companies set prices annually, which means the full effect may not be clear until next year.
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