NHL free agency deep dive: Analyzing the top wingers available

New York Times

17-06-2025

With free-agency season approaching, the big question on everyone's mind comes down to cost: How much is each player worth?
Pricing players can be an inexact science, but is an extremely worthy exercise that can save future headaches. Last year, it could've saved a team from drastically overpaying each of the top players available — Steven Stamkos, Elias Lindholm and Chandler Stephenson.
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The same will likely be true this year with the salary cap rising quickly and teams trying to figure out the market's new normal. Sometimes teams have to take risks in the market to acquire players, even at uncomfortable prices, but it's still better to understand where that bar should be set.
Our Chris Johnston has already delivered the top 50 players available. Now we're going to estimate how good they are and, perhaps more importantly, will be. That's based on each player's projected Net Rating over the duration of an expected contract that takes into account how the player likely ages and future cap growth. Net Rating isn't infallible, but it serves as a strong starting point for discussion.
Here are the top wingers available this summer.
The best player available and one of the best players to ever hit free agency, Mitch Marner is going to command a lot of money. He's one of the best wingers in the world, a player capable of scoring 100 points while providing elite-level defense. While his game does drop off a lot offensively in the postseason, his defensive work steps up considerably. Marner is worth big money.
Marner should remain a star player for the entire length of a max-term deal and the fair price for that is roughly $12.5 million. Whether he takes less or more should tell us where his priorities lie.
Of all the high-end free agents available, Nikolaj Ehlers likely has the best potential to create surplus value, even into his 30s. The reason for that is he looks perfectly on market as is, and he can potentially offer more in a bigger role.
Ehlers' usage with the Jets has long been perplexing with 2024-25 being his third straight season playing under 16 minutes. Ehlers has just one season (2021-22) where he played more than 17 minutes per night and one (2024-25) where he's been a fixture on the top power play. In both years, Ehlers scored at a near 75-point pace. That Ehlers couldn't eclipse 16 minutes last season despite the PP1 promotion is especially odd, a result of a five-on-five demotion. For whatever reason, Ehlers was Winnipeg's ninth-most-used forward at five-on-five behind players like Mason Appleton and Vladislav Namestnikov.
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More often than not, you're better off trusting a coach's intuition. It's possibly a red flag that it hasn't been just one coach using Ehlers less; it's been three (though Paul Maurice did give Ehlers more ice time in his final season with the Jets). I also understand why a player as chaotically creative as Ehlers can be frustrating at the top of the lineup.
Still, Ehlers is a player who oozes skill on every shift and is one of the league's most dynamic players with the puck. He's a transition machine who can go end-to-end with ease and creates a lot of offense in-zone. Few players enter and exit the zone better than Ehlers does. It can be a dangerous game to assume a player's production can translate perfectly with more minutes, but Ehlers has all the makings of an elite driver, not a passenger. He makes things happen on his own. His microstat profile via Corey Sznajder's All Three Zones project is consistently excellent.
Ehlers looks like a player with untapped star potential, one who has scored over two points per 60 in six straight seasons at five-on-five. Over the last three years in particular, he scores at 2.44 points per 60, a mark that ranks 17th in the league, sandwiched between Elias Pettersson and Jesper Bratt. Is it so far-fetched to believe Ehlers could have a similar offensive impact to those two — both 'softer' but dynamically skilled players — in a similar role?
That's the upside bet with Ehlers, whose projected Net Rating jumps three goals if given the same ice-time as Pettersson and Bratt (around 18 minutes). He'd be closer to a 75-to-80 player in that role with his market value jumping to $10 million per season over six years. That's a big win at Ehlers' current expected price tag.
It's no guarantee that Ehlers' value translates perfectly to a bigger role, but his skillset suggests that there's more value that can be unlocked by a team willing to trust him more. Even if he can't, $8 million is solid for what Ehlers already brings to the table.
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Over the last five seasons, Brad Marchand has been in major decline. His point pace has fallen each year from 107 to 94 to 75 to 67 to 59. That's a large drop, even if decline is to be expected at his age. The reason many assume elite players age so well is simply because they have more room to fall. A 50-point drop for an elite player still makes him first-line-caliber. A 50-point drop for a second-liner means he's out of a job.
That's where things currently stand for Marchand: an undoubtedly strong player, even at 37, but one whose value has fallen substantially from his peak. In 2024-25, Marchand was still first-line-caliber, but it looks unlikely he remains at that level for the next two to three seasons. Unless Marchand's trajectory dramatically shifts — more than possible for a once-elite player — he'll likely be closer to a second-liner during his next deal.
That's still valuable — just not $8 million valuable as some are currently throwing out there. In order for Marchand to be worth that price, he would have to experience exactly zero aging over the next two seasons (a Net Rating of around plus-seven) which is a tough bet to make on most 37-year-olds.
Marchand might be different, though, and it's not hard to see him charting his own path as the spotlight shifts away from him as a team's focal point. One reason Marchand's decline in Boston had been so sharp is that he had to be a top guy, second-in-command to David Pastrnak. That's a role he no longer seems suited for. In Florida, Marchand has shifted to a complementary piece and his game has thrived as a result.
That's been on full display during the playoffs, where Marchand has turned back the clock with 20 points in 22 games and some absurdly dominant five-on-five numbers. He's been a matchup nightmare for opposing teams, leading to a playoff Net Rating of plus-13.7 per 82 games. That's in line with the level he was at three seasons ago and a mark that's easily worth $8 million.
Marchand's ability to elevate in the playoffs is not new. In fact, it's always been a consistently impressive part of his game. That's worth more than his expected value above and I would price it similarly to Sam Bennett's playoff pedigree bonus (around $500-750K).
What's different about Marchand's situation is what this year's playoffs suggest about how he ages: the projection above may be too harsh. It's one premised on Marchand's trajectory being The Guy. Shift his role and Marchand's trajectory may see a second wind. Unlike some former elite players who may not do well with such a shift, Marchand's game (and demeanour) appears well-tailored to support great players. It's more than possible he retains more value than expected away from the spotlight.
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Marchand would be an expensive complementary piece, no doubt, but a potentially worthwhile one if he can keep up just half of what he's delivered with the Panthers.
Arguably one of the most worrying free agents on the market. Brock Boeser's potential price tag of $8.5 million puts him close to core player territory and his value arguably skews closer to complementary top-six scorer (and not nearly to the same degree as Marchand). Aside from scoring, which does carry value, Boeser is a bit of an offensive passenger and doesn't add much defensively. His age profile looks a little scary, too.
At the right price, Boeser can be a valuable piece of a team's scoring puzzle. But his current contract projections look far too pricey for what he brings to the table.
One simple trick to get the most out of Andrei Kuzmenko: put him on a line with other good players.
That's what made him an immediate difference-maker with the Canucks until he was moved away from Elias Pettersson. And that's exactly what we saw initially with Calgary (on a line with Nazem Kadri) and after the trade deadline with the Kings (on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe). Kuzmenko is a skilled player who thrives with other skilled players and, on the whole, grades out as a decent second-line player. On a three-year deal, that's worth $5 million.
There is a concern with Kuzmenko that he wore out his welcome with both Vancouver and Calgary, struggling in his second seasons with each team. I'm not sure what to make of that, but it does suggest there may be some baggage there that creates risk. When Kuzmenko is quiet, he's really quiet, and that can be frustrating to watch. He doesn't seem to respond well to those slow times either.
Kuzmenko is a real boom or bust player, but in the right situation, he can spark offense in the top six — as long as a team can accept his inconsistencies. His work with the Kings was intriguing enough to be a worthy gamble on a short-term deal.
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How good is Jonathan Drouin? That's difficult to answer considering how dire his career looked two seasons ago and how effective he looked next to Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado.
Did Drouin's former Halifax teammate help rejuvenate a dormant skill set, allowing Drouin to finally reach his potential? Or did MacKinnon carry him completely to a height that Drouin would have zero chance of reaching on his own?
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Drouin is probably not the first-line talent last year's 71-point pace would suggest, given who he played with. He probably also isn't some random dude off the street that MacKinnon carried like a backpack, given what he accomplished.
In that respect, calling Drouin an average second-liner is probably most fair. His market value closely aligns with his contract projection: right around $5 million.
I'd be wary of giving out term for the 31-year-old, and some skepticism is probably warranted given his environment. But it is nice to know Drouin can handle being a complementary player to a star at the top of the lineup, especially given the defensive question marks within his game before he went to Colorado. You can't put just anyone next to MacKinnon and expect the same production Drouin put up. For what it's worth, Drouin's points per 60 with MacKinnon over the last two years (1.98) was actually lower than without (2.04).
Drouin may not be a driver, but there's probably a decent number of teams that could use him as a skilled playmaker next to their own star.
After an injury-riddled 2022-23 campaign, Patrick Kane looked a lot closer to his usual self the last two seasons with Detroit: a lot of points thanks to strong playmaking coupled with suspect defense.
His next team can expect more of the same, but one thing to consider is Kane's role.
With the Red Wings, Kane had a cushy gig on the top power play, where he scored 29 of his 59 points last season. Kane is still genuinely elite with the man advantage and helped power the Red Wings to a top-five finish on the power play. But he probably won't offer top-six-caliber value at five-on-five next season with an expected offensive drop-off due to age and the usual poor play defensively.
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AFP Analytics projects a one-year deal at $3.5 million and while that price is probably fine even without top power-play time (Kane's market value drops to $3.2 million), the most bang-for-your-buck hinges on Kane being a power-play merchant. That's not a role not every team will have available.
After an unbelievably good postseason in 2024, Jamie Benn and his three points in 18 games in 2025 left a lot to be desired.
There's still a lot to like about Benn's game, given what he adds offensively at five-on-five, but it's fair to wonder how much gas is left in the tank after an uninspiring playoff run. For a player who has generally brought his fair share of playoff heat in the past, it could be a troubling sign of what's to come. Benn has a lot of miles on his body as a power forward and is at an age where there's a good chance it's starting to break down.
Furthering the issue is Benn's defensive game, which has been steadily porous in four straight seasons. His minus-1.8 Defensive Rating is one of the league's lesser marks and that does make him a little harder to trust down the lineup in a checking role if that's where his career heads.
A short deal closer to $4 million should be fine for the veteran, but anything approaching $5 million would likely be too much.
Hot take: I don't think Mikael Granlund has changed all that much from his seemingly awful 2022-23 season and his seemingly stronger work since. Yes, he's been better, but the degree to which is likely overstated. It's easy to be fooled by points and Granlund is a prime example of that.
What's changed for Granlund over the last two seasons is that he's treated defense as completely optional. That's allowed him to bounce back to being a 60-point player, but it's come at a tremendous cost the other way. Some might argue that was because he played for the Sharks, but his xGA/60 was actually worse in Dallas (3.61 compared to 3.24 with San Jose) this season. Granlund was never really a strong play-driver, but he was never this much of a liability either.
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Given his age, Granlund's next deal has all the makings of a regrettable one. Under the right circumstances, he can work well as an offensive force on a sheltered line. But that does make him a tough fit and a tough sell at $5 million, as AFP Analytics projects. Anything over $4 million will probably be too much.
Points can make a player rich, but when there's no substance underneath them they can be a red herring toward actually winning games. One of Granlund's best comps being post-Penguins Phil Kessel speaks for itself.
Last season felt like the end for Claude Giroux as an impact player. Kudos to him for lasting as a top-line player for as long as he did, but in his late 30s I would guess Giroux will be closer to a middle-six talent. That's based primarily on how much Giroux's game dropped off last season.
At five-on-five, Giroux scored just 1.37 points per 60 and saw his relative xG rates drop to below average for the first time in eight seasons to minus-0.29 per 60. That was the 54th worst forward mark in the league. Among Ottawa's forwards, Giroux's 48 percent xG rate was one of the lowest despite being stapled to Tim Stützle (54 percent xG) for most of the year.
AFP Analytics' projection of $5.2 million would be fine for what Giroux was last season, but at 37 it's fair to expect further decline next season and beyond.
Last season could be viewed through two perspectives for Ryan Donato: why he's long deserved a bigger role and why he's never received it.
Offensively, Donato has long had some juice going back to his days on the Kraken's super-charged fourth line. Back then, he scored over a goal per 60 in back-to-back seasons and scored over two points per 60 for Seattle — both were top-six rates. If he could translate that up the lineup, a 50-to-60 point season wouldn't be surprising. And that's exactly what he delivered for the Blackhawks last year.
The problem with Donato is that it comes at the expense of defense. There's a reason he was always sheltered, and that manifested last year where he was on the ice for 2.92 xGA/60, a below-average rate on one of the league's worst defensive teams. It ended up being a worthy trade-off — Donato's Offensive Rating eclipsed his poor Defensive Rating — but that's not a profile many coaches put up with in the top six.
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With his rise up the lineup, Donato has at least proven he's more than a bottom-six scorer, but finding a good fit for him won't be easy. Last year could just be a contract-year flash, but even if it wasn't, those plush offensive opportunities Donato earned in Chicago might prove difficult to find elsewhere. And if he's not getting those, is he worth $4 million?
It probably wouldn't be wise to give 34-year-old Reilly Smith a deal that starts with a four. But I do believe he's been a bit unfairly maligned the last two seasons. He may not be the 50-point scorer he once was, but Smith is still a dependable player that can fit into a lot of different roles due to his varied skill set. Smith may not have any elite traits, but he doesn't have many bad ones either. It's boring, but it works. When Smith is on, the puck usually travels in the right direction — even if it doesn't look like he's doing much out there.
Smith's defensive aptitude is the main selling point at this stage of his career. It's a legitimate asset and could serve him well as he transitions into a bottom-six role going forward. At the right price, around $3.5 million, Smith is a worthwhile get for a team in need of defensive stability.
Last summer it felt like the Capitals got a good one in Andrew Mangiapane, a play-driving top-six forward who can chip in 40 points and be a sound defensive player. He looked like a needle-mover under the hood.
Things didn't quite work out that way. He was mostly marooned in the bottom six leading to a disappointing 28-point season. Mangiapane played well defensively, but the offensive touch wasn't manfiesting anymore.
Mangiapane's points per 60 has now dropped in four straight seasons from 2.24 in 2021-22 to 1.33 last year. and he's not shooting the puck as frequently either. Those are likely red flags that the top-six version of Mangiapane isn't returning and data tracked by Corey Sznajder seems to support that. His involvement and efficiency with the puck has also dropped over the last few years.
The right team could spark a bounce-back for Mangiapane, but for now the safest bet is that he's merely an adequate third-liner. Nothing wrong with that, and a price-tag in the mid-3s feels fair for what Mangiapane currently is.
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If Brandon Saad's turn with the Vegas Golden Knights is any indication, he's still got a lot of game left in him from a play-driving perspective. With Vegas, Saad earned 62 percent of expected goals and 59 percent of actual goals — both extremely strong relative to teammates. At five-on-five he also scored 1.96 points per 60, right in line with his 2023-24 rate. Saad looked rejuvenated, all he needed was a change of scenery.
AFP Analytics is projecting just a $2.6 million cap hit for the next two years for Saad and that feels light for what he can still offer. Saad may not be an everyday top-six player anymore, but he looks like he can be a high-end third-liner — one easily worth $3 million, or even a shade more.
The Dustin Brown comp looks especially interesting as a potential best-case scenario path. Brown, a former top-six star on a championship team at the time, found a second wind in his mid-30s buoyed by his still-strong ability to drive play at 33. A new home as a solid third-liner is most likely. But if Saad's work in Vegas is legit, there could be room for him to bounce back to his former level, similar to what Brown was able to do at the same age.
It can take a long time for a player to get back on track from a serious injury. A long time. Connor Brown is a perfect example of that.
His dip in 2023-24 and subsequent bounce-back in 2024-25 shows a very common trajectory for a player returning from a lengthy absence, one where patience is often rewarded. Brown's projected value on the chart above doesn't even do his bounce-back justice as it includes data from the season prior to smooth out the forecast. His actual Net Rating during the 2024-25 season was plus-0.1 — right in line with the player he was before injury. Brown's plus-3.3 Defensive Rating was one of the top marks among forwards, making him a viable checking line option for a contending team — as he's shown with the Oilers this spring.
If that's who Brown can be going forward, a $3 million deal could be a bargain for an average forward (where the cost can rise above $4 million) rather than the poor deal shown above. Because of last year's dip, some caution should be exercised. But given we know why that dip occurred, there's good reason to believe it's merely a momentary roadblock on the road to recovery. It wouldn't be a shock to see Brown's path veer towards the upside of his expected trajectory.
After years of being a defensive liability for the Sabres, Victor Olofsson had a career year in that department for Vegas. The Golden Knights allowed just 1.98 xGA/60 with Olofsson on the ice, 0.43 better than his teammates. The latter was the 11th best mark in the league. If you believe the numbers above all else, it sure looks like Olofsson has turned a defensive corner. Given his track record, I'm not as convinced — not until he proves it again.
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At the very least, it does show what Olofsson is capable of in the right situation. Pair that with a great shot that seriously cooks on the power play, and he can be an intriguing addition as a top-nine scorer. I would just be wary that his defensive glow-up was a flash-in-the-pan more than a suddenly unlocked skill.
Vegas was right to add him last summer and did well to to get more out of Olofsson's game. But I'd be a bit cautious to give him more than $3 million. Or much term, for that matter.
It's extremely rare for two players to match as closely as Jack Roslovic does to 2017-18 Mikkel Boedker, a fairly telling comp and a potential warning sign. Boedker was an empty-calorie scorer who faded into a depth role around this age, and it wouldn't be a shock to see something similar happen to Roslovic.
When Roslovic is on, he can be a very productive player. But he also has too many dry spells where he doesn't look like he's contributing at best and where, at worst, he's a defensive liability. Roslovic's ability to retrieve pucks and exit the zone was a major weakness last year. It's a bit damning that the Hurricanes, a savvy team that's often desperate for goals, felt the 22-goal scorer was not one of their 12 best forwards for a decent chunk of the playoffs. Roslovic's defensive issues were probably one reason why.
It's possible Roslovic has more to give as a high-end third-line scorer where $4 million makes sense. But it feels more likely he fits closer to the lower end of the third-line spectrum where a $3 million deal is more fair. That's the price Carolina paid last summer and I don't believe a raise is warranted.
A prototypical third line player. Mason Appleton isn't much of a scorer, but he does play well without the puck. Appleton's work in retrieving pucks and clearing them from the defensive zone is above-average and he parlays that into strong forechecking in the offensive zone. He's fine, though $3.2 million per year is probably stretching things a touch. Getting Appleton under $3 million would be a bit more palatable.
One interesting comp for Appleton: Pascal Dupuis, before his Crosby-induced glow-up. While a Viktor Stalberg-like trajectory is far more likely, the remote possibility that Appleton can take a leap doing grunt work next to a star carries some intrigue — even if he never showed it playing with any of Winnipeg's best.
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After a heavy drop-off in 2023-24 and an epic bounce-back one year later, it's hard to know who the real Anthony Beauvillier is. Given the player he used to be, I'm tempted to say the model's skepticism is probably a little too harsh on Beauvillier's current level — he looked legitimately good for the Penguins and Capitals last season. He didn't look out of place in the top six either. Beauvillier's value goes beyond the box score, where he's seemingly reinvented himself as a defensively sound player.
Considering Beauvillier has never had such a reputation before, it's fair to remain cautious over how real that reinvention is and whether or not it's sustainable. But at $3 million, Beauvillier feels like a fine bet as an everyday top-nine player. Given his elevated playoff scoring rate, Beauvillier might even have some dawg in him, too.
The 2023-24 season was an interesting late-career surge for Gustav Nyquist, but he fell back to earth last year. Going into his age 36 season, expect further decline for Nyquist who likely slides firmly into third-line territory. Nyquist remains a gifted passer with decent defensive instincts, which could make him serviceable in such a role, and a two-year deal that pays $3.2 million per season feels fair.
In each of the last two seasons, Evgenii Dadonov has been a productive depth scorer, putting up 1.65 points-per-60 at five-on-five. But he's also on the wrong side of 35, where each year carries bigger risk for a larger drop-off. If Dadonov keeps up last year's work, a $3 million deal works to be a third-liner. But it's far more likely he drops off further and struggles to live up to that price. His best comps being past-their-prime scorers who retired at this age — Marian Gaborik, Jason Pominville — probably doesn't bode well.
At some point, the bottom will fall out for Corey Perry; Father Time is undefeated. Based on his work in this year's postseason, though, Perry sure looks like a player who still has a lot of game left. With 10 goals and 14 points in 21 games — an unfathomable stat line for a 40-year-old — Perry has been a rockstar for the Oilers.
AFP Analytics projects a one-year deal just under $1 million for Perry next season and even after accounting for aging, that's an easy call for Perry. He shouldn't have much problem playing at a fourth-line level for one more season, and certainly fits the style well on top of that.
Two seasons ago, Brandon Tanev was one of the top defensive depth players in the league, a legitimate asset in the bottom six. Now, it's unlikely a team is getting that version of Tanev, whose game has slipped considerably since 2022-23. He's probably not the defensive player he used to be.
With that being said, his work in Winnipeg — where he had a 63 percent xG rate — does leave room for optimism. On the fourth line of a good team, it's possible Tanev can still make an impact. Given his larger recent body of work in Seattle, though, it's probably not work that should be overpaid for. Unless his next team is certain of a bounce-back, a $2.2 million deal looks a little too pricey for a fourth-liner.
— Data via Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Stat Cards, AFP Analytics and All Three Zones
(Top photo of Nikolaj Ehlers and Mitch Marner: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)