HCLTech Share Price: Nuvama downgrades stock to Hold and cuts target after Q1 results, sees limited valuation upside and modest EPS growth
Nuvama Institutional Equities has downgraded HCL Technologies to 'Hold' following what it called a 'mixed' set of Q1FY26 results, citing weak EBIT margins and a sharp drop in deal wins. The brokerage also cut its target price to ₹1,630 from ₹1,700, maintaining its valuation multiple of 23x FY27E EPS.
In constant currency (CC) terms, HCL Technologies reported a 0.8% sequential decline in revenue to USD 3,545 million, which was slightly better than Nuvama's and Street estimates of a 1% decline. However, operating profitability disappointed, with EBIT margin falling sharply by 170 basis points QoQ to 16.3%, below expectations.
The bigger concern, however, was the company's total contract value (TCV) for Q1FY26, which stood at USD 1.81 billion — down 39% QoQ and 8% YoY, suggesting sluggish deal inflows at a time when peers are stabilizing their pipelines.
While HCL Tech narrowed its revenue growth guidance for FY26 to 3–5%, implying some optimism around faster deal ramp-ups in the second half of the year, it also revised its EBIT margin guidance downward, indicating near-term cost pressures. Management expects margins to normalise only by Q4FY26, making the near-term trajectory uncertain.
Nuvama has accordingly trimmed its FY26E/FY27E EPS estimates by 5.7% and 3.1%, respectively. The brokerage flagged the muted growth momentum and falling margins as headwinds and now expects a modest 5% EPS CAGR over FY25–27.
'Given the limited upside from current levels and a soft earnings growth profile, we downgrade HCL Tech to 'Hold',' the brokerage said in its note.
The downgrade comes amid a broader recalibration of expectations in the Indian IT sector, which has seen a tepid start to FY26 amid macroeconomic uncertainty in key markets like the US and Europe. HCL Tech's Q1 also marked a sharp sequential drop in order wins, which could weigh on revenue conversion in the coming quarters.
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