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Forbes
18 minutes ago
- Forbes
A Big, Beautiful Fiction - Does The EU/US Trade Deal Make Sense?
James Thurber's famous book 'The Secret Life of Walter Mitty' is yet another book I would recommend to readers, to continue a recurring theme of recent weeks. It is especially apt in the context of the US-EU trade deal. Walter Mitty appeared at the end of the 1930's, a decade that was shaped by Herbert Hoover's tariff policy, and that was marked by profound economic and geopolitical tensions. Mitty's fantasies were provoked by the reality of his pedestrian, harangued life – which will appeal to European leaders who care to dream of better days. Equally, the giddiness of Mitty's fantasies has its equivalent in the promises that Donald Trump has elicited from the EU – namely, to buy and invest hundreds of billions of dollars in energy. One week on, reaction to the US-EU trade deal is still mixed, and it is not quite clear who has 'won'. This may be because it is not a trade deal in the classical sense – at least in the sense of the laborious trade deals that the EU is used to striking, partly because a large facet of the 'deal' is based on a promise and also because the optics of the deal are quite depressing for Europe. At the headline level, EU exports into the US will be met with a 15% tariff to be paid by the US consumer, not unlike the Japanese 'deal'. Auto companies will not be displeased with a 15% tariff. Wines and spirits, steel and notably pharmaceuticals have yet to have tariff levels finalised and there will be some relief on the confirmation of 15% tariffs on pharmaceuticals, though the investigation into pharmaceutical exports back to the US is a tail risk. Interestingly, the EU has resisted attempts to water down its digital regulations. Politically the spin that the EU is putting on the agreement is that it was the best possible outcome in a difficult geopolitical climate (recall that the recent EU-China summit was a damp-squib). While there were some public expressions of dismay, notably from the French prime minister Francois Bayrou – these can be seen to be largely aimed at the public, rather than Brussels. Though Ursula von der Leyen is unpopular with EU governments for the singular way she runs her office – it is populated with officials who are close to national government (i.e. Alexandre Adam one of von der Leyen's key deputies is an arch Macronist) – there is no sense that the large countries were left out of the negotiation process, and any effort to isolate von der Leyen for blame, is ignoble. However, amongst the professional trade staff, there is still some despair at the humiliating optics of the deal, the fact that it is in many ways not binding, and the risk that there is no undertaking that it is final in the sense that another round of tariffs is imposed later. On the positive side for Europe, and flipping to the 'Mitty-esque' part of the deal, two of the key undertakings in the deal – that European companies invest USD 600 bn in the US, in addition to a commitment to purchase microchips, as well as a commitment from the EU to buy USD 750bn in energy from the US over the course of the Trump presidency – are not at all clear in their implementation, and very much open to a fudge, with the right accounting treatment. In particular the energy purchase commitment is unrealistic because it exceeds what the EU spends on energy in a given year and US energy firms do not have the capacity to service a commitment of USD 250bn in demand from Europe, whilst also serving other markets. In my view there are several aftershocks to watch for. The first is that the deal further damages trans-Atlantic relations, and the level of trust between the EU and the US is likely the lowest it has ever been, and this has strategic implications as far afield as Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East. One other implication may be a drift, by government and consumers, away from US brands – as this may well be an effect that is seen in other regions. Two financial market implications are that the dampening of growth in Europe will maintain downward pressure on rates in Europe. More importantly, in the context of a very oversold dollar, there is now an incentive for EU policy makers to try hard to talk down the euro, and we may see a short-term rebound in the currency pair. On the whole, if this is a 'final' deal and the topic of tariffs does not re-emerge in the next three years, it is not a bad deal for the semi's, autos and aerospace sectors in Europe, though the public optics are not good for the EU. The best parts of the deal for Europe are the fantastical claims of incoming European investment and energy purchases in the US. This is a Mitty style fairy tale that the Europeans hope Mr Trump believes in. The telling factor is that this deal has now emptied all goodwill from the trans-Atlantic relationship, and effectively completes another diplomatic rupture by President Trump. From a European point of view, this is yet another 'wake up call' and the best that can be hoped for is that it accelerates projects like the savings and investment union and 'strategic autonomy'. European leaders and the European policy elite keep talking about this, but until we see hard evidence (for example, German real GDP over the last five years is close to zero), they are the fantasists. Have a great week ahead Mike
CNN
25 minutes ago
- CNN
Dead whales surface on Japan shore amid tsunami warnings
Dead whales surface on Japan shore amid tsunami warnings A drone recorded images of four whale carcasses that were found stranded off the coast of Tateyama, Japan, Reuters reported. This follows tsunami warnings in several parts of Japan. The video contains disturbing images. 00:44 - Source: CNN United Nations' Relief Chief: If anyone can shift Israeli Government, 'It's of course, the Americans' UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher tells CNN's Christiane Amanpour that if anyone can shift the Israeli government, it's the US, and addresses reports of how food aid is being intercepted. 02:09 - Source: CNN Amusement park ride splits in half in Saudi Arabia At least 23 people were injured, three of them critically, when a fairground ride buckled in Saudi Arabia, sending passengers crashing to the ground, according to state media. 00:33 - Source: CNN Soldiers in Ukraine battle Russian drones CNN's Nick Paton Walsh reports from the frontlines of Ukraine, where soldiers rush to bring in the wounded as drones constantly look for a target. 01:38 - Source: CNN US diminished a key weapons stockpile fighting Iran The US used about a quarter of its supply of high-end missile interceptors during the Israel-Iran war, exposing a gap in supplies, and raising concerns about US global security posture. CNN's Tamara Qiblawi reports. 01:35 - Source: CNN Carney says Canada will recognize Palestinian state Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has joined France and Britain in announcing plans to recognize a Palestinian state in September at the United Nations, as international pressure builds on Israel over the ongoing war and starvation crisis in Gaza. President Donald Trump reacted to the announcement by threatening to derail trade talks with Canada. 00:30 - Source: CNN Two leading Israeli human rights groups accuse Israel of genocide Two leading Israeli human rights groups have accused Israel of 'committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza,' becoming the first such organizations to make the claim. B'Tselem's Executive Director Yuli Novak and Physicians for Human Rights Israel's Executive Director Guy Shalev tell CNN's Christiane Amanpour what was behind their groups' decisions to use the word genocide. 04:59 - Source: CNN Watch F-18 fighter jet perform evasive maneuvers to avoid crashing into audience at airshow A video verified by Reuters shows the moment when a Spanish F-18 fighter jet was forced to perform "evasive maneuvers" to avoid crashing into attendees during the Gijón Air Festival. The military praised the pilot's actions which ensured the safety of the attendees. 00:35 - Source: CNN Mothers risk their lives to get food in Gaza Palestinian women face an awful choice between risking their own lives, which could deprive their families of their only remaining provider, or watching their children starve. CNN's Paula Hancocks reports. 01:33 - Source: CNN Medics perform surgery during earthquake Video shows medics in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia, continuing a surgery on a patient despite a powerful magnitude 8.8 earthquake that struck off Russia's far eastern coast on July 30. 00:47 - Source: CNN Tsunami warnings triggered after major earthquake The strongest earthquake on the planet since 2011 has triggered tsunami warnings for parts of Russia, Japan, and Alaska, as well as all of Hawaii. CNN's Will Ripley reports on the 8.8-magnitude quake. 00:41 - Source: CNN Israeli settler kills activist who worked on Oscar-winning film Odeh Hathalin, a prominent Palestinian activist who had worked on an Oscar-winning documentary, was killed on Monday during an attack by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank, according to local journalists and officials. CNN's Jeremy Diamond explains video circulated on social media that shows the gunman firing a hand gun in the vicinity of where Hathalin was said to be killed. 01:36 - Source: CNN Fans in England celebrate Women's Euro 2025 final win Fans celebrate in London as England has been crowned champion of Europe for the second successive time after defeating Spain 3-1 on penalties in the Women's Euro 2025 final. 00:30 - Source: CNN Breaking down Israel's aid drops into Gaza In the midst of a hunger crisis in Gaza, Israel and other countries have begun dropping aid by plane into the area. CNN's Nic Robertson breaks down how much effect this measure can offer, while the UN calls for substantial relief to come from aid trucks moving in quickly through open corridors. 01:15 - Source: CNN People fight for scraps of food in Gaza CNN's Nic Robertson reports on the scarce food conditions in Gaza, with children and mothers fighting off starvation as soup kitchens face shortages. 01:46 - Source: CNN 18 people dead after Peru bus accident At least 18 people have died and 24 were injured after a bus overturned in the Province of Junín, in Central Peru. The cause of the accident is still being investigated. 00:28 - Source: CNN Rare snow leopard baby born at UK zoo Video released by Chester Zoo in the United Kingdom shows a rare snow leopard cub taking its first steps. The baby was the first of its kind born at the facility in its 94-year history. Snow leopards are currently listed as 'vulnerable' on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. 01:14 - Source: CNN
CNN
31 minutes ago
- CNN
Live Aid co-organizer's warning on Trump Admin's funding cuts
Live Aid co-organizer's warning on Trump Admin's funding cuts CNN's Chief Climate Correspondent Bill Weir remembers the iconic 1985 Live Aid concert, a fundraiser for Ethiopian children in crisis that drew tens of thousands to attend what became a defining historical moment for Generation X. Concert co-founder Bob Geldof warns Weir that funding cuts under the Trump administration indicate a concerning turning point for American humanitarianism. 02:22 - Source: CNN United Nations' Relief Chief: If anyone can shift Israeli Government, 'It's of course, the Americans' UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher tells CNN's Christiane Amanpour that if anyone can shift the Israeli government, it's the US, and addresses reports of how food aid is being intercepted. 02:09 - Source: CNN Amusement park ride splits in half in Saudi Arabia At least 23 people were injured, three of them critically, when a fairground ride buckled in Saudi Arabia, sending passengers crashing to the ground, according to state media. 00:33 - Source: CNN Soldiers in Ukraine battle Russian drones CNN's Nick Paton Walsh reports from the frontlines of Ukraine, where soldiers rush to bring in the wounded as drones constantly look for a target. 01:38 - Source: CNN US diminished a key weapons stockpile fighting Iran The US used about a quarter of its supply of high-end missile interceptors during the Israel-Iran war, exposing a gap in supplies, and raising concerns about US global security posture. CNN's Tamara Qiblawi reports. 01:35 - Source: CNN Carney says Canada will recognize Palestinian state Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has joined France and Britain in announcing plans to recognize a Palestinian state in September at the United Nations, as international pressure builds on Israel over the ongoing war and starvation crisis in Gaza. President Donald Trump reacted to the announcement by threatening to derail trade talks with Canada. 00:30 - Source: CNN Two leading Israeli human rights groups accuse Israel of genocide Two leading Israeli human rights groups have accused Israel of 'committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza,' becoming the first such organizations to make the claim. B'Tselem's Executive Director Yuli Novak and Physicians for Human Rights Israel's Executive Director Guy Shalev tell CNN's Christiane Amanpour what was behind their groups' decisions to use the word genocide. 04:59 - Source: CNN Watch F-18 fighter jet perform evasive maneuvers to avoid crashing into audience at airshow A video verified by Reuters shows the moment when a Spanish F-18 fighter jet was forced to perform "evasive maneuvers" to avoid crashing into attendees during the Gijón Air Festival. The military praised the pilot's actions which ensured the safety of the attendees. 00:35 - Source: CNN Mothers risk their lives to get food in Gaza Palestinian women face an awful choice between risking their own lives, which could deprive their families of their only remaining provider, or watching their children starve. CNN's Paula Hancocks reports. 01:33 - Source: CNN Medics perform surgery during earthquake Video shows medics in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia, continuing a surgery on a patient despite a powerful magnitude 8.8 earthquake that struck off Russia's far eastern coast on July 30. 00:47 - Source: CNN Tsunami warnings triggered after major earthquake The strongest earthquake on the planet since 2011 has triggered tsunami warnings for parts of Russia, Japan, and Alaska, as well as all of Hawaii. CNN's Will Ripley reports on the 8.8-magnitude quake. 00:41 - Source: CNN Israeli settler kills activist who worked on Oscar-winning film Odeh Hathalin, a prominent Palestinian activist who had worked on an Oscar-winning documentary, was killed on Monday during an attack by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank, according to local journalists and officials. CNN's Jeremy Diamond explains video circulated on social media that shows the gunman firing a hand gun in the vicinity of where Hathalin was said to be killed. 01:36 - Source: CNN Fans in England celebrate Women's Euro 2025 final win Fans celebrate in London as England has been crowned champion of Europe for the second successive time after defeating Spain 3-1 on penalties in the Women's Euro 2025 final. 00:30 - Source: CNN Breaking down Israel's aid drops into Gaza In the midst of a hunger crisis in Gaza, Israel and other countries have begun dropping aid by plane into the area. CNN's Nic Robertson breaks down how much effect this measure can offer, while the UN calls for substantial relief to come from aid trucks moving in quickly through open corridors. 01:15 - Source: CNN People fight for scraps of food in Gaza CNN's Nic Robertson reports on the scarce food conditions in Gaza, with children and mothers fighting off starvation as soup kitchens face shortages. 01:46 - Source: CNN 18 people dead after Peru bus accident At least 18 people have died and 24 were injured after a bus overturned in the Province of Junín, in Central Peru. The cause of the accident is still being investigated. 00:28 - Source: CNN Rare snow leopard baby born at UK zoo Video released by Chester Zoo in the United Kingdom shows a rare snow leopard cub taking its first steps. The baby was the first of its kind born at the facility in its 94-year history. Snow leopards are currently listed as 'vulnerable' on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species. 01:14 - Source: CNN
