Expect the capex trajectory to remain very strong, says Joe Lavorgna
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Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Wall Street's Tom Lee Says This 'Most Hated' Rally Could Be A Fortune-Maker—And Bitcoin at $250K Isn't Out Of Reach
Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. When Wall Street veteran Tom Lee speaks, investors listen. As head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Lee has built a reputation for bold predictions and contrarian calls that often prove prescient. In a recent CNBC interview, the market strategist delivered a compelling case for why current market skepticism could create generational wealth opportunities—and why his eye-popping Bitcoin price target might not be as crazy as it sounds. The Recovery Everyone Loves to Hate Lee describes the market's recent rebound as the 'most hated V-shape bounce in history,' pointing to a critical disconnect between market performance and investor sentiment. During what he calls 'April tariff Armageddon,' fear of recession drove massive liquidations, leaving most investors underexposed when markets staged their dramatic recovery. Don't Miss: Be part of the breakthrough that could replace plastic as we know it— — no wallets, just price speculation and free paper trading to practice different strategies. This positioning creates an unusual dynamic: strong fundamentals meeting widespread skepticism. 'Most investors are currently underexposed,' Lee notes, suggesting significant upside potential as sentiment eventually catches up to reality. Why the Market Is Cheaper Than You Think Challenging the narrative that stocks have become dangerously overvalued, Lee presents compelling valuation data. Despite enduring what he characterizes as 'six extinction-like events' over the past six years—including COVID-19, supply chain disruptions, inflation surges, aggressive Fed rate hikes, Trump tariffs, and geopolitical tensions—S&P 500 earnings have actually grown. More surprisingly, the equity-weighted S&P multiple has compressed from approximately 17.6 times in 2019 to 16 times currently. This suggests the market has become cheaper even as earnings demonstrated remarkable resilience through unprecedented challenges. Trending: Grow your IRA or 401(k) with Crypto – . Apple's AI Ace in the Hole While much attention focuses on the 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants, Lee offers a contrarian take on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). He believes the iPhone maker has been 'quietly ready to pounce on AI' and will 'surprise people' with its approach. Drawing parallels to Apple's transformative but late entry into smartphones with the 2007 iPhone launch, Lee suggests that when Apple decides to 'play big in AI,' it will 'change the game.' He emphasizes Apple's competitive advantages in safety, privacy, and user experience optimization—particularly valuable if large language models become commoditized. The strategist also supports speculation around Apple's potential foldable phone launch this fall, noting that larger screens drive users toward 'computing and something much higher capability,' aligning with augmented reality applications in the AI era. The Stablecoin Revolution and Ethereum's Golden Opportunity Lee identifies stablecoins as the 'ChatGPT moment for crypto,' highlighting their growing adoption by businesses, consumers, and major financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and Citigroup (NYSE:C). This trend creates significant opportunities for Ethereum, which hosts the majority of stablecoins and generates over 30% of its network fees from this Ethereum approaching a $4 trillion market valuation, Lee sees substantial upside. While technical analysis suggests near-term targets around $5,000, he believes valuation metrics similar to Circle could justify prices between $10,000 and $20,000. The $250K Bitcoin Vision Perhaps Lee's boldest call remains his Bitcoin price target of $200,000 to $250,000, which he maintains 'still makes sense.' His reasoning is straightforward: this would value Bitcoin at just 25% of gold's market size. Looking further ahead, Lee reiterates his belief that Bitcoin 'should be worth over a million per bitcoin' and that this 'could happen in the next few years.' The Bottom Line Lee's message is clear: current market skepticism, combined with resilient fundamentals and emerging technological shifts, creates compelling investment opportunities. Whether through traditional equities trading at compressed multiples, Apple's potential AI breakthrough, or cryptocurrency's institutional adoption wave, patient investors willing to look past short-term noise may find themselves positioned for significant gains. As Lee emphasizes, his goal at Fundstrat remains helping clients 'find good ideas and make money'—and his track record suggests these contrarian insights deserve serious consideration. Read Next: A must-have for all crypto enthusiasts: . Image: Shutterstock This article Wall Street's Tom Lee Says This 'Most Hated' Rally Could Be A Fortune-Maker—And Bitcoin at $250K Isn't Out Of Reach originally appeared on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
an hour ago
US and China to talk trade with eye on Trump-Xi summit later this year
WASHINGTON -- When top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm, they are almost certain to agree to at least leaving tariffs at the current levels while working toward a meeting between their presidents later this year for a more lasting trade deal between the world's two largest economies, analysts say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to hold talks for the third time this year — this round in the Swedish capital, nearly four months after President Donald Trump upset global trade with his sweeping tariff proposal, including an import tax that shot up to 145% on Chinese goods. 'We have the confines of a deal with China,' Trump said Friday before leaving for Scotland. Bessent told MSNBC on Wednesday that the two countries after talks in Geneva and London have reached a 'status quo,' with the U.S. taxing imported goods from China at 30% and China responding with a 10% tariff, on top of tariffs prior to the start of Trump's second term. 'Now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance,' Bessent said. He was referring to the U.S. running a $295.5 billion trade deficit last year. The U.S. seeks an agreement that would enable it to export more to China and shift the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumer spending. The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing hopes 'there will be more consensus and cooperation and less misperception' coming out of the talks. With an eye on a possible leaders' summit, Stockholm could provide some answers as to the timeline and viability of that particular goal ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. 'The meeting will be important in starting to set the stage for a fall meeting between Trump and Xi,' said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'Beijing will likely insist on detailed preparations before they agree to a leaders' meeting.' In Stockholm, the two sides are likely to focus on commercial announcements to be made at a leaders' summit as well as agreements to address 'major irritants,' such as China's industrial overcapacity and its lack of control over chemicals used to make fentanyl, also to be announced when Xi and Trump should meet, Cutler said. Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said Stockholm could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for U.S. companies. What businesses will be seeking coming out of Stockholm would largely be 'the atmosphere' — how the two sides characterize the discussions. They will also look for clues about a possible leaders' summit because any real deal will hinge on the two presidents meeting each other, he said. In Stockholm, Beijing will likely demand the removal of the 20% fentanyl-related tariff that Trump imposed earlier this year, said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center. This round of the U.S.-China trade dispute began with fentanyl, when Trump in February imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing that China failed to curb the outflow of the chemicals used to make the drug. The following month, Trump added another 10% tax for the same reason. Beijing retaliated with extra duties on some U.S. goods, including coal, liquefied natural gas, and farm products such as beef, chicken, pork and soy. In Geneva, both sides climbed down from three-digit tariffs rolled out following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April, but the U.S. kept the 20% 'fentanyl' tariffs, in addition to the 10% baseline rate — to which China responded by keeping the same 10% rate on U.S. products. These across-the-board duties were unchanged when the two sides met in London a month later to negotiate over non-tariff measures such as export controls on critical products. The Chinese government has long protested that American politicians blame China for the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. but argued the root problem lies with the U.S. itself. Washington says Beijing is not doing enough to regulate precursor chemicals that flow out of China into the hands of drug dealers. In July, China placed two fentanyl ingredients under enhanced control, a move seen as in response to U.S. pressure and signaling goodwill. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, said he doesn't expect any tariff to go away in Stockholm but that tariff relief could be part of a final trade deal. 'It's possible that Trump would cancel the 20% tariff that he has explicitly linked with fentanyl, but I would expect the final tariff level on China to be at least as high as the 15-20% rate contained in the recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam,' Wildau said. China's industrial overcapacity is as much a headache for the United States as it is for the European Union. Even Beijing has acknowledged the problem but suggested it might be difficult to address. America's trade imbalance with China has decreased from a peak of $418 billion in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. But China has found new markets for its goods and as the world's dominant manufacturer ran a global trade surplus approaching $1 trillion last year — somewhat larger than the size of the U.S. overall trade deficit in 2024. And China's emergence as a manufacturer of electric vehicles and other emerging technologies has suddenly made it more of a financial and geopolitical threat for those same industries based in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea. 'Some enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, feel more deeply that China's manufacturing capabilities are too strong, and Chinese people are too hardworking. Factories run 24 hours a day,' Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Thursday when hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing. 'Some people think this will cause some new problems in the balance of supply and demand in world production.' 'We see this problem too,' Li said. Bessent also said the Stockholm talks could address Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. However, Wildau of Teneo said China could demand some U.S. security concessions in exchange, such as a reduced U.S. military presence in East Asia and scaled-back diplomatic support for Taiwan and the Philippines. This would likely face political pushback in Washington. The Stockholm talks will be 'geared towards building a trade agreement based around Chinese purchase commitments and pledges of investment in the U.S. in exchange for partial relief from U.S. tariffs and export controls,' Wildau said. He doubts there will be a grand deal. Instead, he predicts 'a more limited agreement based around fentanyl.' 'That,' he said, 'is probably the preferred outcome for China hawks in the Trump administration, who worry that an overeager Trump might offer too much to Xi.'
The Hill
2 hours ago
- The Hill
US and China to talk in Stockholm on trade with eye on Trump-Xi summit later this year
WASHINGTON (AP) — When top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm, they are almost certain to agree to at least leaving tariffs at the current levels while working toward a meeting between their presidents later this year for a more lasting trade deal between the world's two largest economies, analysts say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to hold talks for the third time this year — this round in the Swedish capital, nearly four months after President Donald Trump upset global trade with his sweeping tariff proposal, including an import tax that shot up to 145% on Chinese goods. 'We have the confines of a deal with China,' Trump said Friday before leaving for Scotland. Bessent told MSNBC on Wednesday that the two countries after talks in Geneva and London have reached a 'status quo,' with the U.S. taxing imported goods from China at 30% and China responding with a 10% tariff, on top of tariffs prior to the start of Trump's second term. 'Now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance,' Bessent said. He was referring to the U.S. running a $295.5 billion trade deficit last year. The U.S. seeks an agreement that would enable it to export more to China and shift the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumer spending. The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing hopes 'there will be more consensus and cooperation and less misperception' coming out of the talks. With an eye on a possible leaders' summit, Stockholm could provide some answers as to the timeline and viability of that particular goal ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. 'The meeting will be important in starting to set the stage for a fall meeting between Trump and Xi,' said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'Beijing will likely insist on detailed preparations before they agree to a leaders' meeting.' In Stockholm, the two sides are likely to focus on commercial announcements to be made at a leaders' summit as well as agreements to address 'major irritants,' such as China's industrial overcapacity and its lack of control over chemicals used to make fentanyl, also to be announced when Xi and Trump should meet, Cutler said. Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said Stockholm could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for U.S. companies. What businesses will be seeking coming out of Stockholm would largely be 'the atmosphere' — how the two sides characterize the discussions. They will also look for clues about a possible leaders' summit because any real deal will hinge on the two presidents meeting each other, he said. Fentanyl-related tariffs are likely a focus for China In Stockholm, Beijing will likely demand the removal of the 20% fentanyl-related tariff that Trump imposed earlier this year, said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center. This round of the U.S.-China trade dispute began with fentanyl, when Trump in February imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing that China failed to curb the outflow of the chemicals used to make the drug. The following month, Trump added another 10% tax for the same reason. Beijing retaliated with extra duties on some U.S. goods, including coal, liquefied natural gas, and farm products such as beef, chicken, pork and soy. In Geneva, both sides climbed down from three-digit tariffs rolled out following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April, but the U.S. kept the 20% 'fentanyl' tariffs, in addition to the 10% baseline rate — to which China responded by keeping the same 10% rate on U.S. products. These across-the-board duties were unchanged when the two sides met in London a month later to negotiate over non-tariff measures such as export controls on critical products. The Chinese government has long protested that American politicians blame China for the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. but argued the root problem lies with the U.S. itself. Washington says Beijing is not doing enough to regulate precursor chemicals that flow out of China into the hands of drug dealers. In July, China placed two fentanyl ingredients under enhanced control, a move seen as in response to U.S. pressure and signaling goodwill. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, said he doesn't expect any tariff to go away in Stockholm but that tariff relief could be part of a final trade deal. 'It's possible that Trump would cancel the 20% tariff that he has explicitly linked with fentanyl, but I would expect the final tariff level on China to be at least as high as the 15-20% rate contained in the recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam,' Wildau said. US wants China to dump less, buy less oil from Russia and Iran China's industrial overcapacity is as much a headache for the United States as it is for the European Union. Even Beijing has acknowledged the problem but suggested it might be difficult to address. America's trade imbalance with China has decreased from a peak of $418 billion in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. But China has found new markets for its goods and as the world's dominant manufacturer ran a global trade surplus approaching $1 trillion last year — somewhat larger than the size of the U.S. overall trade deficit in 2024. And China's emergence as a manufacturer of electric vehicles and other emerging technologies has suddenly made it more of a financial and geopolitical threat for those same industries based in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea. 'Some enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, feel more deeply that China's manufacturing capabilities are too strong, and Chinese people are too hardworking. Factories run 24 hours a day,' Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Thursday when hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing. 'Some people think this will cause some new problems in the balance of supply and demand in world production.' 'We see this problem too,' Li said. Bessent also said the Stockholm talks could address Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. However, Wildau of Teneo said China could demand some U.S. security concessions in exchange, such as a reduced U.S. military presence in East Asia and scaled-back diplomatic support for Taiwan and the Philippines. This would likely face political pushback in Washington. The Stockholm talks will be 'geared towards building a trade agreement based around Chinese purchase commitments and pledges of investment in the U.S. in exchange for partial relief from U.S. tariffs and export controls,' Wildau said. He doubts there will be a grand deal. Instead, he predicts 'a more limited agreement based around fentanyl.' 'That,' he said, 'is probably the preferred outcome for China hawks in the Trump administration, who worry that an overeager Trump might offer too much to Xi.'
