Oil price outlook weakens on OPEC+ hikes, lingering trade concerns: poll
Analysts have revised down their oil price forecasts for the third consecutive month as swelling OPEC+ supply and lingering uncertainty around the impact of trade disputes on fuel demand weigh on prices, a Reuters poll showed.
A survey of 40 economists and analysts in May forecasts Brent crude will average US$66.98 per barrel in 2025, down from April's $68.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $63.35, below last month's $65.08 estimate. Prices have averaged roughly $71.08 and $67.56 so far this year respectively, as per LSEG data.
While tensions have somewhat eased between the U.S. and other trade partners, trade conflicts still loom as a key factor that could weaken oil demand, said Tobias Keller, analyst at UniCredit.
'On the supply side, oil prices will be heavily influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, while geopolitical tensions... pose ongoing risks of disruption and price volatility,' Keller added.
Eight OPEC+ members began unwinding output cuts earlier this year, agreeing to larger-than-expected increases of 411,000 bpd for May and June. The members may decide on a similar output hike for July at a meeting on Saturday, sources have told Reuters.
The move 'seems driven by a desire to punish non-compliant members rather than support oil prices at any specific level. Compliance will be hard to enforce, especially in Kazakhstan,' said Suvro Sarkar, lead energy analyst at DBS Bank.
Meanwhile, analysts polled by Reuters expect global oil demand to grow by an average of 775,000 barrels per day in 2025, with many pointing to elevated trade uncertainty and the risk of economic slowdown as key concerns. This compares to the 740,000 bpd 2025 average demand growth forecast from the International Energy Agency earlier this month.
With U.S. consumption and China oil demand constrained by fuel efficiency gains, economic uncertainty and the shift to electric mobility, 'demand growth is largely coming from the resource nations themselves,' said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics & next generation research at Julius Baer.
Meanwhile, Russia's war in Ukraine continues to pose a geopolitical risk premium for oil. Analysts say markets have largely priced in the uncertainty.
'Potential de-escalation efforts and the possibility of lifting sanctions on Russian oil could further lower prices,' said Sarkar.
Reporting by Sarah Qureshi and Kavya Balaraman in Bengaluru; Editing by Ros Russell, Reuters
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CTV News
a day ago
- CTV News
The U.S. said it had no choice but to deport them to a third country. Then it sent them home
Migrants deported months ago by the United States to El Salvador under the Trump administration's immigration crackdown arrive at Simon Bolívar International Airport in Maiquetia, Venezuela, Friday, July 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos) WASHINGTON — The Trump administration says that some serious criminals need to be deported to third countries because even their home countries won't accept them. But a review of recent cases shows that at least five men threatened with such a fate were sent to their native countries within weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump aims to deport millions of immigrants in the U.S. illegally and his administration has sought to ramp up removals to third countries, including sending convicted criminals to South Sudan and Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, two sub-Saharan African nations. Immigrants convicted of crimes typically first serve their U.S. sentences before being deported. This appeared to be the case with the eight men deported to South Sudan and five to Eswatini, although some had been released years earlier. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in June that third-country deportations allow them to deport people 'so uniquely barbaric that their own countries won't take them back.' Critics have countered that it's not clear the U.S. tried to return the men deported to South Sudan and Eswatini to their home countries and that the deportations were unnecessarily cruel. Reuters found that at least five men threatened with deportation to Libya in May were sent to their home countries weeks later, according to interviews with two of the men, a family member and attorneys. After a U.S. judge blocked the Trump administration from sending them to Libya, two men from Vietnam, two men from Laos and a man from Mexico were all deported to their home nations. The deportations have not previously been reported. DHS did not comment on the removals. Reuters could not determine if their home countries initially refused to take them or why the U.S. tried to send them to Libya. DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin contested that the home countries of criminals deported to third countries were willing to take them back, but did not provide details on any attempts to return the five men home before they were threatened with deportation to Libya. 'If you come to our country illegally and break our laws, you could end up in CECOT, Alligator Alcatraz, Guantanamo Bay, or South Sudan or another third country,' McLaughlin said in a statement, referencing El Salvador's maximum-security prison and a detention centre in the subtropical Florida Everglades. Far from home DHS did not respond to a request for the number of third-country deportations since Trump took office on January 20, although there have been thousands to Mexico and hundreds to other countries. The eight men sent to South Sudan were from Cuba, Laos, Mexico, Myanmar, South Sudan and Vietnam, according to DHS. The man DHS said was from South Sudan had a deportation order to Sudan, according to a court filing. The five men sent to Eswatini were from Cuba, Jamaica, Laos, Vietnam and Yemen, according to DHS. White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said the men deported to South Sudan and Eswatini were 'the worst of the worst' and included people convicted in the United States of child sex abuse and murder. 'American communities are safer with these heinous illegal criminals gone,' Jackson said in a statement. The Laos government did not respond to requests for comment regarding the men threatened with deportation to Libya and those deported to South Sudan and Eswatini. Vietnam's foreign ministry spokesperson said on July 17 that the government was verifying information regarding the South Sudan deportation but did not provide additional comment to Reuters. The government of Mexico did not comment. The Trump administration acknowledged in a May 22 court filing that the man from Myanmar had valid travel documents to return to his home country but he was deported to South Sudan anyway. DHS said the man had been convicted of sexual assault involving a victim mentally and physically incapable of resisting. Eswatini's government said on Tuesday that it was still holding the five migrants sent there in isolated prison units under the deal with the Trump administration. 'A very random outcome' The Supreme Court in June allowed the Trump administration to deport migrants to third countries without giving them a chance to show they could be harmed. But the legality of the removals is still being contested in a federal lawsuit in Boston, a case that could potentially wind its way back to the conservative-leaning high court. Critics say the removals aim to stoke fear among migrants and encourage them to 'self deport' to their home countries rather than be sent to distant countries they have no connection with. 'This is a message that you may end up with a very random outcome that you're going to like a lot less than if you elect to leave under your own steam,' said Michelle Mittelstadt, communications director for the non-partisan Migration Policy Institute. Internal U.S. immigration enforcement guidance issued in July said migrants could be deported to countries that had not provided diplomatic assurances of their safety in as little as six hours. While the administration has highlighted the deportations of convicted criminals to African countries, it has also sent asylum-seeking Afghans, Russians and others to Panama and Costa Rica. The Trump administration deported more than 200 Venezuelans accused of being gang members to El Salvador in March, where they were held in the country's CECOT prison without access to attorneys until they were released in a prisoner swap last month. More than 5,700 non-Mexican migrants have been deported to Mexico since Trump took office, according to Mexican government data, continuing a policy that began under former U.S. President Joe Biden. The fact that one Mexican man was deported to South Sudan and another threatened with deportation to Libya suggests that the Trump administration did not try to send them to their home countries, according to Trina Realmuto, executive director at the pro-immigrant National Immigration Litigation Alliance. 'Mexico historically accepts back its own citizens,' said Realmuto, one of the attorneys representing migrants in the lawsuit contesting third-country deportations. The eight men deported to South Sudan included Mexican national Jesus Munoz Gutierrez, who had served a sentence in the U.S. for second-degree murder and was directly taken into federal immigration custody afterward, according to Realmuto. Court records show Munoz stabbed and killed a roommate during a fight in 2004. When the Trump administration first initiated the deportation in late May, Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government had not been informed. 'If he does want to be repatriated, then the United States would have to bring him to Mexico,' Sheinbaum said at the time. His sister, Guadalupe Gutierrez, said in an interview that she didn't understand why he was sent to South Sudan, where he is currently in custody. She said Mexico is trying to get her brother home. 'Mexico never rejected my brother,' Gutierrez said. 'Using us as a pawn' Immigration hardliners see the third-country removals as a way to deal with immigration offenders who can't easily be deported and could pose a threat to the U.S. public. 'The Trump administration is prioritizing the safety of American communities over the comfort of these deportees,' said Jessica Vaughan, policy director at the Center for Immigration Studies, which supports lower levels of immigration. The Trump administration in July pressed other African nations to take migrants and has asked the Pacific Islands nation of Palau, among others. Under U.S. law, federal immigration officials can deport someone to a country other than their place of citizenship when all other efforts are 'impracticable, inadvisable or impossible.' Immigration officials must first try to send an immigrant back to their home country, and if they fail, then to a country with which they have a connection, such as where they lived or were born. For a Lao man who was almost deported to Libya in early May, hearing about the renewed third-country deportations took him back to his own close call. In an interview from Laos granted on condition of anonymity because of fears for his safety, he asked why the U.S. was 'using us as a pawn?' His attorney said the man had served a prison sentence for a felony. Reuters could not establish what he was convicted of. He recalled officials telling him to sign his deportation order to Libya, which he refused, telling them he wanted to be sent to Laos instead. They told him he would be deported to Libya regardless of whether he signed or not, he said. DHS did not comment on the allegations. The man, who came to the United States in the early 1980s as a refugee when he was four years old, said he was now trying to learn the Lao language and adapt to his new life, 'taking it day by day.'
Globe and Mail
2 days ago
- Globe and Mail
Chevron (CVX) Q2 Revenue Tops Estimates
Key Points Adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 topped analyst expectations in Q2 2025 and GAAP revenue was $44.4 billion, beating estimates in Q2 2025. Year-over-year, both adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) and net income (GAAP) declined, reflecting lower oil prices and costs from the Hess acquisition. Free cash flow (non-GAAP) more than doubled compared to last year, while record production was achieved in the Permian Basin and across Chevron's global operations. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Chevron (NYSE:CVX), a global integrated energy company with operations spanning oil, gas, and renewables, reported its second quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 1, 2025. The company delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.77 in Q2 2025, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1.73 (non-GAAP) for Q2 2025. GAAP revenue reached $44.4 billion in Q2 2025, also exceeding the estimated $43.9 billion (GAAP) for Q2 2025. Despite exceeding forecasts, both adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) and net income (GAAP) were lower than the same period last year, mainly due to commodity price declines and special items linked to the Hess acquisition. For the quarter, Chevron achieved record production and robust cash generation, and continued to prioritize shareholder returns, even as key profitability metrics faced pressure. Metric Q2 2025 Q2 2025 Estimate Q2 2024 Y/Y Change EPS (Non-GAAP) $1.77 $1.73 $2.55 (30.6 %) Revenue (GAAP) $44.4 billion $43.9 billion N/A N/A Net Income (GAAP) $2.5 billion $4.4 billion (43.2%) Adjusted Earnings (Non-GAAP) $3.1 billion $4.7 billion (34.7 %) Free Cash Flow (Non-GAAP) $4.9 billion $2.3 billion 113.0 % Source: Analyst estimates for the quarter provided by FactSet. Business Overview and Strategic Focus Chevron is a large integrated energy company. It operates major upstream activities, such as exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as downstream activities, including refining and marketing petroleum products and chemicals. This integrated model helps Chevron manage changing commodity prices and drive value across the energy supply chain. The company's recent focus has centered on four priorities: strengthening its integrated energy operations, driving lower carbon initiatives, expanding its global presence, and investing in technology. Key to its current strategy is adopting lower carbon solutions and new energy sources, expanding production in the Permian Basin, and delivering consistent shareholder returns. Quarter Review: Operations, Segment Performance, and Special Items Chevron achieved new records in both U.S. and global oil-equivalent production. Output reached 3,396 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 2025, up 123 thousand barrels per day from a year earlier. The Permian Basin, which produces both oil and natural gas, surpassed the 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day mark for the first time. Permian Basin production increased by 14%. This region is critical as it offers short-cycle projects, allowing Chevron to respond efficiently to market demand shifts. Upstream operations, focused on oil and gas extraction, reported earnings of $2.73 billion in Q2 2025, a decrease from $4.47 billion (GAAP) in Q2 2024. U.S. Upstream realized a higher production rate, with Gulf of America output up 22% in Q2 2025. However, lower crude prices significantly impacted profitability. The average realized price for liquids was $47.77 per barrel in Q2 2025, down from $59.85 in Q2 2024. International Upstream production decreased slightly in Q2 2025 due to asset sales in Canada and Congo, partially offset by increased output in Kazakhstan following a successful ramp-up of TCO's Future Growth Project. Downstream, which covers refining and the sale of finished products like gasoline and diesel, recorded earnings of $737 million in Q2 2025 In the U.S, refinery processing rates rose to 1,051 thousand barrels per day in Q2 2025, reflecting expansion projects and stable operations at major refineries. Margin improvements in product sales helped offset some of the low earnings in oil and gas extraction. The international segment also saw modest gains despite minor declines in refined product sales and some headwinds from foreign currency effects and local tax changes. The quarter included several notable transactions and one-time items. The acquisition of Hess, which closed in July, brought Chevron access to offshore assets in Guyana and the Bakken region in North Dakota. Special charges totaled $215 million in Q2 2025, tied to the fair value adjustment of Hess shares and pension-related curtailment. A further $348 million reduction in earnings resulted from unfavorable foreign currency movements in Q2 2025. Despite these challenges, Free cash flow was $4.9 billion in Q2 2025, more than doubling from $2.3 billion in Q2 2024, supported by strong operational cash generation of $8.6 billion in Q2 2025, and lower capital expenditures over the period. Chevron declared a quarterly dividend of $1.71 per share, payable September 10, 2025. This continues its record of regular dividend payments and returns to shareholders. Total shareholder returns in Q2 2025 reached $5.5 billion, including $2.6 billion in share repurchases. This marks the thirteenth consecutive quarter of $5 billion or more in shareholder distributions as of Q2 2025. Business Portfolio, Products, and Ongoing Initiatives Chevron's product portfolio covers crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum products, and specialty chemicals. Notably, its operations span upstream projects (exploration and production), downstream facilities (refining and marketing), renewables, and new energy ventures. In the upstream segment, the company's evolving mix includes investments in conventional resources and renewable energy. The Permian Basin stands out for its flexibility and scale, while major international projects in Kazakhstan and deepwater Gulf of America contribute to steady, low-decline output. The newly completed acquisition of Hess adds high-quality reserves and positions Chevron for broader international growth, particularly in offshore Guyana. On the downstream side, Chevron has invested in refinery expansions, such as the Pasadena facility, to boost processing capacity and capture synergies between its different sites. For example, the refinery can now process more oil and feed more finished products into key U.S. markets. This integration enhances flexibility and margin capture at Gulf Coast refineries. The company's lower carbon business made key advances this quarter. The Geismar renewable diesel plant increased capacity to 22,000 barrels per day in Q2 2025. Chevron also entered the U.S. lithium sector, acquiring 125,000 net acres for lithium extraction. Long-term contracts now support up to 7 million tonnes per year of U.S. Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity. These moves support Chevron's efforts to diversify and lower the carbon intensity of its products. Financial Outlook and What to Watch Chevron reported $3.7 billion in capital expenditures in Q2 2025, with $7.6 billion spent year-to-date (YTD 2025), both down from YTD 2024. Leadership expects to keep annual buybacks within the $10 to $20 billion range, adjusted for market conditions. Total debt was $29.5 billion as of June 30, 2025 (GAAP), and Net debt ratio climbed to 14.8% as of June 30, 2025, reflecting cash outflows linked to completing the Hess transaction. Free cash flow improvements and record production may help offset these balance sheet pressures if oil prices remain stable and project execution continues at pace. Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted. Where to invest $1,000 right now When our analyst team has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,036%* — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 181% for the S&P 500. They just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025
Toronto Sun
2 days ago
- Toronto Sun
SNOBELEN: What happened to peace, order and good government?
MPs have convened in Ottawa for a weeks-long spring session of the House of Commons Photo by Chris Wattie / Reuters I'll confess that a couple of decades ago, my younger eyes found Canada kind of dull. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada. Unlimited online access to articles from across Canada with one account. Get exclusive access to the Toronto Sun ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition that you can share, download and comment on. Enjoy insights and behind-the-scenes analysis from our award-winning journalists. Support local journalists and the next generation of journalists. Daily puzzles including the New York Times Crossword. REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account. Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments. Enjoy additional articles per month. Get email updates from your favourite authors. THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK. Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience. Access articles from across Canada with one account Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments Enjoy additional articles per month Get email updates from your favourite authors Don't have an account? Create Account Americans had the inspirational notion of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. The French had the gallant Liberty, Equality, Fraternity. By comparison, the Canadian governing mantra of Peace, Order and Good Government felt a little beige. Peace, Order and Good Government is the sort of organizing principle you might expect of a country that had a prime minister named Lester. Think pocket protectors and slide rulers. But the world has devolved and words like equality and liberty have lost a little shine through disabuse, while the prospect of good government, once table stakes in the business of governing, now seems aspirational. Heck, the simple act of separating what is real from what someone deems to be true is a daunting challenge. In a more innocent time, people assumed that governments spoke with responsibility and authority, tempering their words to align with reality. But the days of governments being tethered to fact are long gone, fatally severed by the ludicrous truths of COVID. Your noon-hour look at what's happening in Toronto and beyond. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. Please try again This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Five years on from the pandemic, the 'science-based' decisions of government during the COVID lockdowns seem just as random as the opposing 'truths' of social media experts. Fear trumped common sense. Being able to take the government at its word should be a given. It's not. People should also be able to count on governments to reliably provide basic services in a reasonable time frame. Sadly, that is not the case. Need some proof? Take a ride on Toronto's Eglinton Crosstown LRT. This multi-billion-dollar rapid transit project was scheduled to open in 2020 after a decade of tangled traffic during construction. Except it didn't. Hopelessly behind schedule and way over budget, the yet-to-open Eglinton LRT is the antithesis of good government. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. Need more proof? Drive the non-existent road to the heart of Canada's mineral wealth, the Ring of Fire. The Ring of Fire has held the promise of being, as then-Treasury Board president Tony Clement noted over a decade ago, the oil sands of Ontario. It's a big deal. More than two decades after consultations to open the region for mining began, and through a succession of governments making bold announcements, the Ring of Fire remains a dim promise locked in endless cycles of delay. We can't, it seems, get a mining project off the planning table. A couple of years ago, every level of government was fixated on solving one vexing problem — the lack of housing. The problem was so acute that governments took immediate action with bold promises and urgent legislation. Build baby, build. This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below. The result of all that bluster is a reduction in the number of houses being built. That sure isn't good government. If good government seems a stretch, the idea of peace and order is also under siege. We seem unable or unwilling to constrain protests that clearly stretch into civil disobedience, quell sectarian violence, protect minorities and control our borders. These are cornerstones of a civil society. And so, peace, order and good government now have reached aspirational status. We need governments that are serious about what they say and capable of executing on their promises. In other words, we need thoughtful, competent governance. A few decades on, my now-older eyes focus less on ideology and more on competence. After all, life, liberty and happiness don't mean much without peace, order and good government. Canada Toronto Blue Jays Celebrity Toronto & GTA Columnists
