If Trump has his way, the next Bond will be set in California

Telegraph

05-05-2025

The next James Bond movie might have to be filmed in California. Producers will have to find somewhere in Massachusetts or Maine that can double up for Hogwarts for the new Harry Potter series. And Notting Hill II, if it ever happens, might have to shift Hugh Grant's bookshop to Greenwich Village.
In a move that was audacious even by his standards, President Trump has announced plans for 100pc tariffs on films shot outside the US – which would be devastating for what has emerged as one of the UK's most successful industries, and one that has already been subsidised by billions in tax breaks.
If Trump follows through with his threat, it will illustrate just how high a price the UK is paying for Sir Keir Starmer's failure to land a trade deal – because the film industry could soon be wiped out.
If the UK has had an industrial policy over the last decade – and you would need a pretty big magnifying glass to have much chance of finding one – supporting the British film industry has been one of its main planks.
Over many years, successive chancellors have handed out generous tax breaks to films shot in the UK, regardless of whether the story has anything to do with Britain at all. The result? Studios such as Pinewood have expanded massively.
Amazon shot much of its Lord of the Rings series – the most expensive TV show of all time – in Britain, while movies such as 'Wicked', 'Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore' and 'Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning' were all filmed at least partly in the UK.
Indeed, while Rachel Reeves hammered most businesses in her Budget last year, she handed out a helpful new tax credit to the sector. With all that help, the UK has built a globally successful film industry, with spending estimated at more than £5bn a year.
President Trump has now put all that at risk. After the likes of George Clooney and Meryl Streep campaigned so passionately against him, Trump could be forgiven for not having much affection for Hollywood.
However, the president clearly has an affection for the golden age of American film-making. 'The movie industry in America is dying a very fast death. WE WANT MOVIES MADE IN AMERICA, AGAIN!', the US president wrote on a Truth Social posting, slipping into the characteristic capitals that he reserves for his most strongly held opinions.
His solution to this problem? A draconian new tax on the industry. Any movie that is not filmed in the United States could soon be subject to a 100pc tariff. That won't just apply to a handful of French or Korean art house movies, which probably don't do much business in the multiplexes of Tennessee or Texas anyway, but to all the blockbusters filmed elsewhere.
It is, of course, only a threat right now. President Trump often does not follow through on his more eccentric tariff proposals, or reverses them once a few billionaire friends point out how much damage they might do. By the end of the week, Jeff Bezos, whose Amazon now owns the MGM studio and the rights to Bond, might well have managed to get the policy reversed.
That said, Trump has a point. There has been a huge decline in American film production – as not just the UK but Canada, Spain, Hungary and many other countries lure production away with generous tax breaks. It is one of the many ways in which the US faces competition that is often far from fair.
But if the film tariff goes ahead, it poses two major risks to the British economy.
First, it will wipe out the industry here faster than the villain's lair is demolished in the final scene of a Bond movie. Sure, you might be able to get some generous tax breaks when you shoot a film in the UK. But if you have to pay a tariff of 100pc when it is shown in the US, it simply won't be viable.
No one will want to pay an extra $10 (£7.52) at the multiplex for a Marvel film that appears completely American just because it happened to be shot in Buckinghamshire instead of Hollywood.
The industry will be destroyed. The huge investment in sound stages, in post-production facilities, in props, costumes and special effects will all go up in smoke. All the well-paid jobs the industry creates will disappear, along with the roles for the actors. And of course, all the tax breaks that the Treasury has lavished on the industry will turn out to have been for nothing.
The industry might still be able to make the occasional niche movie for Channel 4. but the blockbusters will all be gone.
Next, and just as seriously, Trump's targeting of films suggests that services may be next in line. Until this weekend, President Trump had only imposed tariffs on stuff. But a film is much more like a 'service', especially if it streamed.
Will the rest of the media be next? Or financial services, or consultancy? The UK has a surplus in services with the US worth £68bn annually – and we know the president hates surpluses. If Trump targets this imbalance, it would come as a devastating blow to an already fragile economy.
In reality, the Starmer government has been far too slow to wrap up a trade deal with the Trump White House. It has spent far too much time obsessing over the relationship with the EU, and it has not been willing to offer up the headline concessions – such as allowing chlorinated chicken or scrapping the tech tax – that would get a deal over the line.
A deal might well have exempted the UK from film tariffs and rescued the industry. But right now, it looks as if an inept government has blown it, and risks leaving the British industry to wither as a result.