Why a 'love story' with Mark Carney is François Legault's only hope
The man who is clearly and unequivocally the most unpopular premier in Canada, according to the latest Angus Reid poll, stood before the future of his party, the members of the youth wing of the Coalition Avenir Québec, smiling and ready to fight.
'I want to fight more than ever! For a third term, to finish the job!' he roared. 'I need you to continue building Quebec for future generations,' he added.
But the polls suggest that the fight seems lost for Legault, known for years as the country's most beloved premier. And for the man who has made a punching bag of the federal Liberal government, it's a cruel twist of fate that Prime Minister Mark Carney may be the only person who can save the Quebec premier.
With nearly a year to go until the election, the man who won one of the largest majorities in Quebec's history, with 90 out of 125 seats, is facing a massacre. According to the latest Angus Reid report, only a quarter of Quebecers approve of his performance. In March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, his approval rating was 77 per cent.
'Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the CAQ wins zero seat in next year's election,' said a CAQ insider that was granted anonymity to speak more freely out of fear of repercussions.
The man behind the poll aggregator Qc125.com, Philippe J. Fournier, is almost convinced that if there were an election today, the CAQ would not have party status.
'Currently, Mr. Legault is in a situation that is similar or even perhaps a little worse than (then prime minister) Justin Trudeau in December,' he told National Post.
His government has faced numerous controversies over the past two and a half years. Right now, he is being hit on all fronts for his government mismanagement in the health, energy, transport and finances files.
The public, it seems, has simply had enough of this government and no longer trusts it.
Legault sees things differently and presents himself as the nationalist and economic candidate. But the road ahead isn't smooth.
On the one hand, the separatist Parti Québécois has comfortably taken the lead and is garnering all the attention with a leader who remains perfectly clear about his intentions during the first mandate of a PQ government. Yes, this is a referendum on Quebec independence.
With a popular leader leading the way among francophones, with a similar margin to that of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre a year ago, the PQ has now brought the separatists back home after a decade of desertion.
On the other hand, Legault will have to deal with a new leader of the Quebec Liberal Party starting Saturday, when the party chooses its candidate to become Quebec's next premier.
The QLP has been in dormancy since the 2022 election debacle and is dreaming of a massive comeback with a new leader. 'If the next election is about a possible PQ referendum, it becomes clear that we are the alternative. Nobody believes that Legault is a federalist,' said a Liberal source.
In April, interim leader Marc Tanguay dropped a bombshell by publicly declaring that he had information that preparations for a CAQ leadership convention were underway.
Last week, he claimed his information was still accurate. But Legault insisted he would seek a third term.
After all, he doesn't have what Trudeau had a few months ago: Carney as a successor.
And Carney may be the only person who can save Legault.
For weeks now, the premier has been unusually nice to the federal Liberals, a party that he wanted defeated last fall when he asked the Parti Québécois leader to tell his 'comrade' at the Bloc Québécois to overthrow the Trudeau government.
Now, Legault tells his own members that Quebec 'must work hand in hand with the federal government.'
According to him, there is 'an exceptional opportunity' with Carney in Ottawa because he is a prime minister 'laser focused' on the economy. But also, because Carney's entourage is prominently from Quebec. François-Philippe Champagne is finance minister, Mélanie Joly is the minister of industry, Marc-André Blanchard will be Carney's chief of staff and now Michael Sabia, who was Legault's pick as CEO of Hydro-Québec, is the next clerk of the Privy Council.
'It's as if the stars were aligned… So, now is the time to take advantage of it,' Legault said in his speech.
The PQ is now calling the Carney-Legault relationship a 'love story.'
'If he can seek economic opportunities at the federal level and then take credit for them, of course he will do so, so that is called a political opportunity,' said Emilie Foster, a former CAQ MNA and professor at Carleton University.
During her term as a backbencher for Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré in the National Assembly from 2018 to 2022, Foster said she never heard her premier utter the words 'military' and 'defence.'
This week, as Carney announced massive military spending to meet NATO's two per cent target, Legault quickly announced millions of dollars to support Quebec's defence industry and visited three companies.
In Ottawa, this sudden affection from Quebec City is more than welcome. Many Quebec Liberal MPs were all smiles this week.
None of them were the most popular politician in Quebec. No, the most popular 'by far' noted Fournier, is Mark Carney.
Now, Legault wants a piece of it and wants to show the electorate his record of economic success next year. So far, he's boasted of outperforming Ontario and Canada in per capita economic growth, wage growth and disposable income growth.
Legault wants major projects. Like the Newfoundland-Quebec power line, with the help of Carney, who has introduced a bill to fast track major projects.
It's his only chance of survival, according to Foster. Over the past few decades, he's pledged to be an 'economic man,' just like Carney. Yet the province has recorded the largest deficits in its history.
But Legault is making the case that the PQ won't try to achieve success with the federal government because it wants to demonstrate that Canada isn't working.
'So this is not the time to have the PQ in power, this must be very clear, and it must be explained to Quebecers,' Legault said.
He simply hopes that Quebecers will give the PQ the same treatment that Canadians gave the Conservatives.
National Post atrepanier@postmedia.com
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