Delhi among eight Indian cities facing double heatwave threat by 2030: Report
Delhi is one of eight Indian cities projected to experience a two-fold increase in the number of heatwave days by 2030, according to a latest research report. Mumbai, Chennai, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are the seven other cities that are at a similar risk.
Titled 'Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate', the report was released jointly by Esri India, a geographic information systems (GIS) solutions provider, and IPE Global, an international development consultancy group, on Monday. It is co-authored by climate experts Abinash Mohanty and Krishna Kumar Vsav.
'Extended heat wave conditions are likely to trigger more frequent, incessant, and erratic rainfall events. Eight out of ten districts in India are going to experience multiple instances of incessant and erratic rainfall by 2030,' the report stated.
Delhi, which has already seen a heatwave this month, is projected to face heightened climate risks as summer conditions now increasingly spill over into the monsoon season.
'These extreme temperature events are not just limited to the peak summer months — they now increasingly overlap with the monsoon season, creating a dual threat of oppressive heat and extreme rainfall,' underlined a statement by Esri India.
The report highlights a disturbing trend of intensifying heatwaves and prolonged summer-like conditions that extend well into the monsoon.
It has warned of a 2.5-fold increase in the number of heatwave days by 2030 and a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events across India, both driven by accelerating climate change. According to the analysis, India has seen a 15-fold increase in extreme heatwave days from March to May and June to September over the past three decades (1993–2024). The last decade alone recorded a 19-fold increase in such events, underscoring the growing urgency for climate adaptation, as per the findings. In the context of Delhi, this means that extreme heat will no longer be confined to the peak summer months but may coincide with heavy monsoon rains, posing a compound risk to the city's residents.
In the report, it was further highlighted that about 72% of Tier-I and Tier-II cities are likely to face increased occurrences of both heat stress and extreme rainfall, often accompanied by storm surges, lightning, and hailstorms. Districts across diverse geographies — including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Odisha — have been flagged as vulnerable hotspots, indicating the pan-India nature of climate change risks.
Among the states in the country, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh are expected to face the greatest stress, with over 75% of their districts likely to endure this 'double whammy' of persistent heat and erratic rains by the end of the decade.
In terms of the way forward, the note recommended the establishment of a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) to provide real-time risk assessments at the national level. This system would facilitate hyper-granular risk mapping and enhance early warning systems. Another key recommendation is the development of risk financing instruments to offset the socio-economic impacts of extreme weather.
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