What Ukraine's Unprecedented Drone Attack Means For Russia's Bomber Force

Yahoo

02-06-2025

Operation Spiderweb, the large-scale Ukrainian drone strike against airbases across Russia yesterday, which you can read about in our coverage here, primarily targeted Moscow's fleet of strategic bombers. These aircraft, which have been extensively used to launch cruise missile attacks on Ukraine, have been targeted before, but never on such a scale — a reported 117 drones were launched against at least four airfields. At this point, it's unclear how many aircraft were destroyed or damaged, but there's little doubt that the Ukrainian operation will have a long-term effect on Russian strategic aviation.
According to an initial statement from the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff, the drones hit 41 aircraft. As of today, those claims have been reassessed, with Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, saying that 'at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed.'
These supposedly included examples of the Tu-22M3 Backfire-C intermediate-range supersonic bomber, Tu-95MS Bear-H long-range turboprop bomber, and A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) platform. Still unconfirmed are reports about the possible destruction of a Tu-160 Blackjack long-range supersonic bomber. The Tu-160 is very much the jewel in the crown of the Long-Range Aviation branch and is the only Russian bomber that is still in production — albeit on a very limited scale — as we will discuss later.
Russian air defense crew filming a burning Olenya airbase, with multiple Russian Tu-95 bombers seen ablaze after a Ukrainian strike this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/CAkoktnVxU
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 1, 2025
Based on open-source intelligence, including video evidence, unverified accounts suggest that two Tu-95MS were destroyed and two more damaged at Olenya Air Base (also known as Olenyegorsk), as well as one An-12 Cub transport aircraft destroyed.
At Belaya Air Base, more than 2,500 miles from Ukraine, there is satellite evidence that suggests at least three more Tu-95MS destroyed and one possibly damaged, plus as many as four Tu-22M3s destroyed.
Russian films the burning remains of Russian Tu-95s and Tu-22s at the Belaya military airfield in the Irkutsk region pic.twitter.com/GXuWfkIg9c
— Special Kherson Cat
(@bayraktar_1love) June 2, 2025
Today, Ukrainian intelligence reportedly launched 117 attack drones from trucks that had been placed near Russian air bases. I tasked several collects this morning via @umbraspace and my first images have already started processing. What a remarkable success in a well-executed… pic.twitter.com/LzXulw8jnK
— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) June 2, 2025
The revetted parking positions. pic.twitter.com/WNFYnlEZDz
— Chris Biggers (@CSBiggers) June 2, 2025
The individual identity of at least one of the Tu-95MS destroyed at Olenya has meanwhile been confirmed.
Tu-95MS Bort No. "22" Red (RF-94257), which carried the honorary name "Chelyabinsk," is one of the aircraft confirmed destroyed in today's drone attack by Ukraine on Olenya air base in Russia's Murmansk Oblast. https://t.co/BGcsBF5Szh
— Guy Plopsky (@GuyPlopsky) June 1, 2025
Olenya is located on the Kola Peninsula, south of Murmansk, and is home to the 40th Composite Aviation Regiment flying Tu-22M3s. Belaya, near Irkutsk, is also a Backfire base, accommodating the 200th Heavy Bomber Aviation Regiment. Russian bombers now frequently redeploy to different bases, in large part to try and escape Ukrainian attacks, so it's not uncommon for different types to be found at different locations. There are also suggestions that a large number of Tu-95MS aircraft may have arrived at Olenya only recently, making the timing of the Ukrainian attack even more impressive — or fortuitous.
Another two air bases — Dyagilevo and Ivanovo — were also attacked. Of these, Dyagilevo, in the Ryazan region, is a training center for Russian Long-Range Aviation, while Ivanovo, in the region of the same name, is the home base of the A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) fleet, although these aircraft are now normally forward-deployed.
The Russian Ministry of Defense admitted that FPV drone attacks had taken place in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions and that 'several' aircraft had been set on fire in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, which would indicate Olenya and Belaya.
As for the reference to the Amur region, this likely points to an attempted attack on Ukrainka Air Base, another bomber airfield. Unconfirmed reports suggest that a drone-filled truck that was intended to strike that airfield, but never reached the target, for reasons unknown. Several videos show a burning truck close to Ukrainka.
There was a fith target, but the truck supposedly never got there.Ukrainka Air Base51.1691, 128.4456https://t.co/7aQhFTCIYC pic.twitter.com/MS6U8rWRKi
— Def Mon (@DefMon3) June 1, 2025
It's worth noting, too, that the A-50 radar plane is not a part of Russia's Long-Range Aviation. These aircraft belong to Russia's sole AEW&C squadron and are primarily tasked with air defense and command and control duties. They have played an important part in the war in Ukraine, reflected in earlier efforts to target these aircraft in the air and on the ground. Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s in active service. As well as the two combat losses since then, one of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus. As it stands, prior to yesterday, the best-case scenario involved seven of these aircraft in active service.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces determined that the total cost of the damage was around $7 billion, a figure presumably based on roughly 40 aircraft being permanently put out of action. This is very hard to quantify, however, bearing in mind the uncertainty about the number of aircraft hit, the extent of the damage, and the fact that these aircraft have been out of production for decades.
The only Russian bomber for which a somewhat meaningful price tag can be determined is the Tu-160, which may not even have been destroyed in the attack.
Regardless, back in 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense ordered 10 new Tu-160M2s at a cost of 160 billion roubles, making it the most expensive Russian aircraft. That equates to over $500 million per aircraft if the purchasing power parity factor is taken into account.
Russian aerospace expert Piotr Butowski told TWZ he expects that the figure was underestimated back then and, moreover, 'in the current circumstances, I would add another 50 percent.'
'This is the only aircraft that is currently in production, so its price can be estimated,' Butowski added. 'How to estimate the price of the Tu-95MS, which has not been produced for 30-plus years and has no replacement? Its value to the Russian air force is greater than money.'
The bombers of Long-Range Aviation that were primarily in the crosshairs of Sunday's drone strike are among Russia's most prized strategic aerial assets. Critically, none of these aircraft can be replaced quickly, and most of them cannot be replaced at all, since the production capabilities have long since ceased to exist. The option of bringing long-since-retired aircraft back into service is increasingly unviable. With such aircraft having been stored in the open for decades and scavenged for parts, the extent of work required to make them airworthy again would be huge.
Of Russia's bombers, the oldest design is the Tu-95MS. This unique four-turboprop, swept-wing aircraft dates back to the early 1950s. However, today's Tu-95MS was manufactured between 1982 and 1992 as a dedicated carrier for cruise missiles. A total of 88 Bear-H bombers were completed before the collapse of the Soviet Union, after which 40 were left in Kazakhstan and another 25 in Ukraine. Kazakhstan returned to Russia all the aircraft in its territory, while only the three most modern examples from those left in Ukraine made it back to Russia in 1999, the others being scrapped.
Reflecting the continued importance of the Bear-H, surviving aircraft have been steadily upgraded to Tu-95MSM standard. This provides a new radar, flight control system, and navigation suite. The cockpit is also updated, with new liquid-crystal displays.
At the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia had a force of likely a little less than 50 Tu-95MS aircraft. If reports of the destruction of five Bear-Hs prove to be correct, the loss of 10 percent of the fleet would be very significant. For all of the given totals of bomber types, it should also be recalled that, at any given time, only a portion of the entire fleet is operational, with others undergoing routine maintenance, being cycled through deeper upgrades, and so on.
The swing-wing Tu-22M3 is another Cold War design, the development of which began in the late 1960s. Unlike the Tu-95MS and the Tu-160, the Tu-22M3 is also able to carry free-fall bombs, although in the Ukraine war, it has primarily been associated with attacks using Kh-22 (AS-4 Kitchen) supersonic anti-ship missiles repurposed for use against ground targets. This weapon has proven to be very destructive, although not highly precise, for land attack applications and has resulted in significant numbers of civilian deaths.
The definitive Tu-22M3 version first flew in 1977, and a total of 268 examples were built up to 1993. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, some Tu-22Ms remained in Ukraine and were briefly operated before being scrapped between 2002 and 2006.
The Tu-22M3M upgrade is an effort to keep the Backfire relevant, although it has made only slow progress. It is primarily an avionics upgrade, adding a modernized radar, weapons control system, and navigation/communications equipment, as well as an updated cockpit. It also brings compatibility with new weapons.
The Russian Aerospace Forces started the war in Ukraine with approximately 60 Tu-22M3s in service, although there have been other incidents of combat losses and attrition since February 2022.The launch of two supersonic cruise missiles kh-22 from a long-range supersonic missile-carrying bomber Tu-22.
fighter_bomber pic.twitter.com/kAXU9pP5KW
— Massimo Frantarelli (@MrFrantarelli) May 11, 2022
Finally, the Tu-160 is the most modern and capable of Russia's bomber triad, but also its smallest fleet component. The current Russian Tu-160 fleet numbers around 16 operational aircraft. It's also the only one that can be replaced, at least in theory. For now, we also don't know for sure if any Blackjacks were destroyed in yesterday's drone strikes.
The first of two prototype Tu-160s took to the air in 1981 and was followed by 33 series-production aircraft (including one for static tests). The initial production run came to an end in 1994, with four aircraft unfinished at the factory in Kazan. Three of these have since been completed. The demise of the Soviet Union left 19 Tu-160s in Ukraine until a deal was brokered between Moscow and Kyiv, and eight of them were finally returned to Russia between 1999 and 2000. Of the other 11 aircraft in Ukraine, one was preserved, and the remainder were scrapped.
The Tu-160 is also subject to an upgrade program, and, unlike the other bombers, Russia is building additional examples to serve as a stopgap until the potential arrival of the next-generation PAK DA bomber, whenever that might happen. At this point, it's hard to envisage Russia having the funds to replace its bomber fleet with an advanced stealth flying-wing type, especially while it is being crushed by sanctions and its military has taken huge losses in equipment and manpower in a war that has no foreseeable end at this time.
With that in mind, the existing bomber force becomes an even more critical asset.
In January 2018, Moscow ordered 10 new-build Tu-160Ms, each of which was expected to cost around $270 million, with the first example planned to be ready in 2021. While the Russian Ministry of Defense has said it wants to receive at least 50 new-build Tu-160M aircraft, no further orders have been placed since then.
In January 2022, the first new-build Tu-160M took to the air, as you can read about here.
Confusingly, the Tu-160M designation is applied to both new-build aircraft and upgraded versions of the older aircraft. As we have discussed in the past, the Tu-160M is based around an entirely new mission system and avionics. This includes a new radar, digital cockpit displays, flight control system, navigation equipment, and communication suite. A new self-protection suite is also installed.
The effort to build new Blackjacks has been far from easy. Only around three new-build Tu-160Ms had been completed as of early last year, and none of these were in operational service. Therefore, while Russia has a theoretical ability to introduce new-build bombers to service, and to make good losses sustained by drone strikes, or other attrition, this is not something that can be done rapidly and not without great cost.
Even taking one or two bombers out of operation will impact the Russian Aerospace Forces. The bomber triad has played a key role in launching the barrages of cruise missiles that have regularly struck targets across Ukraine.
At the same time, these aircraft are a integral part of Russia's nuclear deterrent. This makes them a matter of great prestige, but also a critical element in Russia's ability to launch nuclear or conventional airstrikes against targets outside of Ukraine. These aircraft are also regularly used for long-range patrols over Europe and Asia, also venturing as far as the coast of Alaska, and for irregular visits to strategic allies.
Wiping out a significant portion of one prong of the nuclear triad — the most flexible part of it — has an impact on the credibility of Russia's overall deterrent. It's also worth noting that Moscow has repeatedly said that attacks on strategic targets would constitute a red line for them, although, strategic bombers and critical locales have been attacked on numerous occasions in the past, too. None of these strikes have been as widespread and possibly successful as this operation though. Regardless, even if a handful of bombers met their demise, it's a blow to Russia's nuclear deterrent posture.
Russia just lost an unknown number of strategic aircraft that are directly tied to validity of their nuclear deterrent. We don't know if this was four or 40 aircraft. The strategic nature of the effects of this attack puts it into uncharted territory. And YES, these aircraft…
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) June 1, 2025
Even before yesterday's massed drone strikes, the vulnerability of Russia's bombers to Ukrainian attack was abundantly clear. Until now, however, attacks on these aircraft have tended to target only one base at a time, using smaller numbers of long-range one-way attack drones.
The repeated nature of these Ukrainian attacks had led to Russian air bases dispersing their aircraft for protection. There have been other measures, too, as TWZ has reported in the past:
The Russian Aerospace Forces have also taken further precautions at their bases. Initially, they installed blast walls between active aircraft. This was an attempt to contain any damage to one aircraft in an attack, designed to prevent both fire and shrapnel from spreading. More recently, construction work at multiple bases has been adding many dozens of new hardened aircraft shelters to better shield aircraft from drone attacks and other indirect fire. However, the size of the bombers means they cannot be provided with the same kinds of protection.
As well as the physical hardening of airfields, Russia has arranged discarded aircraft as decoys. More unorthodox measures have included placing car tires on the upper surfaces of aircraft and painting aircraft silhouettes on concrete airfield surfaces. The tires, specifically, were intended to confuse image-matching seekers on Ukrainian-operated standoff weapons.
At the same time, anti-aircraft defenses have been set up at Russian airfields, although their effectiveness has clearly been mixed, despite Moscow's claims to the contrary.
With that in mind, it's far from clear how Russia will respond to the latest drone attacks on its airbases. One immediate change could be to move to an even more highly dispersed positioning model, which will severely limit the bombers' effectiveness for Ukraine operations. At the same time, attacks on its bases can be launched even from great distances, making any effort to prevent them much harder.
Added to this is the prospect of more capable drones being used for attacks in the future, including examples with enhanced countermeasures, or AI-infused drones that will be immune to jamming and will not need a man-in-the-loop for dynamic targeting. Longer-term, Russia might look to protect its bombers under enormous hardened aircraft shelters (HAS). This is a measure that is already being undertaken for Russian tactical jets at bases closer to Ukraine, and we recently also saw a plan that envisaged a HAS large enough to accommodate a Tu-160.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov was shown a model of a hangar for Tu-160 strategic bombers during a visit last week.https://t.co/1ectH4iB5t https://t.co/OnCu7GUQkX pic.twitter.com/OFApvt0qhG
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) June 2, 2025
Moscow's immediate response to the Ukrainian operation has been to launch more of its own drones against Ukraine: the Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 472 drones overnight, claimed to be the highest nightly total of the war so far, as well as seven missiles. While that was a predictable outcome, it remains to be seen what longer-term measures Russia will adopt to better protect its bombers and other high-value aircraft against future attacks while sitting idle on the ground.
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