Manipulated chart misleads on migration rate in Canada
The image spread online throughout June on Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and X, where it was shared by controversial influencer Mario Nawfal and news aggregator Visegrád 24, which frequently posts misinformation.
As anxiety heightened in recent years over housing shortages and employment opportunities, Canada's years-long pro-immigration consensus broke as some argued welcoming more newcomers contributed to scarcity.
While certain analysts say employers are exploiting the temporary foreign worker program and immigration officials warned that Canada is bringing in more immigrants than it can house, AFP still regularly debunks rumors misleadingly claiming the system helps new arrivals take jobs, food assistance and social benefits from citizens.
These concerns were accompanied by a documented increase in the rate of new arrivals to the country, but the chart seen in the social media posts exaggerates the phenomenon.
Text claims the graph in the image was sourced from the Statistics Canada dataset "Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly" (archived here).
But the government statistics agency told AFP the chart does not align with its data.
"The figure is not an accurate picture of Canada's migration patterns," said Statistics Canada spokeswoman Jasmine Emond in a June 27 email.
The graph circulating in June was credited to the account "@FinanceLancelot" (archived here), which shared the chart with the striking increase to X on May 31. Following the thread of that post leads to another graphic, this time credited to "@AlymerTH" (archived here), depicting a slightly less extreme increase going up to 2023 posted on October 8, 2024.
Emond said Statistics Canada was uncertain about the source of the numbers in the chart but @AlymerTH claimed in a post they used a code to scrape the "components of international migration" dataset and create the chart.
Statistics Canada's dataset is broken down into departures and arrival categories such as emigrants, immigrants -- or permanent residents -- and inflows and outflows of non-permanent residents, which includes anyone coming in on a work or study permit. @AlymerTH's code appears to take the sum of categories that denote departures and subtracts them from all the arrival categories.
However, Emond said an equation calculating recent net migration should have used the "net non-permanent residents" category over a subtraction of outflows from inflows. The data breaking down non-permanent residents' comings and goings is only available from the end of 2021.
Comparing @AlymerTH's formula and the one suggested by Statistics Canada produces similar results for high net international migration in 2023, but the X user's equation also leads to an increase in 2020. The formulation from the government agency showed a decrease that year when many left during the coronavirus pandemic (archived here).
Statistics Canada consolidates data from the "components of international migration" set into its own graphic, broken down by quarters, which again shows the net decrease in 2020 and increases between 2021 and 2023 (archived here).
Unlike the June social media posts, which show net international migration supposedly taking off to over 2.5 million people per year by 2025, Statistics Canada's representation of its most recent immigration data actually shows a decrease in the category after a peak in the third quarter of 2023.
The chart with the steep increase appears to show a 2.5 million data point tacked on to @AlymerTH's graph in reaction to the recently elected Canadian government's proposed immigration targets.
Canada's latest Immigration Levels Plan (archived here), says the government intends to allow the entry of around 2.8 million people, but this is over the course of multiple years between 2025 and 2027 as opposed to just within 2025.
Net migration levels will likely be further decreased by the number of non-permanent residents who leave when their permits expire -- a number not yet known or reflected in the chart on social media.
The Canadian government announced reductions to its immigration targets in late 2024.
According to Statistics Canada data, the country saw its lowest net migration levels since 2021 in the last quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025 (archived here).
Read more of AFP's reporting on misinformation in Canada here.
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