3 Reasons the Bitcoin Surge Isn't Over
If the Federal Reserve lowers its benchmark interest rate this year, it could result in investors taking on more risk.
Based on the past two halvings, Bitcoin's price could reach a fresh all-time high in the next few months.
Bitcoin's hard supply cap is what matters most over the long term.
10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin ›
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is having another fantastic year. After the leading digital asset's price soared 154% in 2023 and 119% in 2024, it is so far up 27% in 2025 (as of July 24). Investors who have been critical of Bitcoin can no longer ignore it as being a smart addition to a portfolio.
But with the price not too far off the all-time high of $123,091.61, established on July 14, it's understandable if you're worried about a potential dip in the near term. That way of thinking is logical, especially when it seems like bullish fever is taking hold of market participants.
My view, however, is to remain optimistic. Here are three reasons I think the Bitcoin surge isn't over.
1. A favorable macro backdrop
The last time the Federal Reserve cuts its benchmark federal funds rate was in December. The uncertainty brought about by the dynamic trade situation gave central bankers a reason to see how things will play out before making any further reductions. It also hasn't helped that inflation remains above the Fed's long-run 2% target.
The stock market has done remarkably well even though the fed funds rate is still at an 18-year high. However, people are waiting for a more accommodative stance. There are expectations that the central bank will start to cut rates before the end of this year, continuing as the calendar turns. Goldman Sachs sees the fed funds rate getting closer to 3% by July 2026, well below the 4.33% where it currently stands.
This backdrop can be bullish for Bitcoin. Investors will take on more risk to compensate for lower yields that they'd earn on savings vehicles. What's more, the market will quickly realize that the Fed is trying to stimulate the economy, which can result in a more positive outlook that influences how capital is allocated.
2. Post-halving cycle
About every four years, Bitcoin undergoes what's known as a halving. This critical event cuts in half the amount of new Bitcoin miners are rewarded for processing transactions. It's a predetermined schedule that's set in Bitcoin's software, and it determines the cryptocurrency's supply growth rate.
Looking at a historical price chart of Bitcoin reveals that the digital asset experiences similar cycles that center on its halving dates. Halving events happened in July 2016 and May 2020. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high roughly 18 months after these dates. The latest halving occurred in April 2024, which means a new peak could be achieved around October of this year.
Although we can look at past cycles to try and figure out what the future holds, there are no guarantees. No two cycles are exactly the same because there are many other variables that can have an impact on the price. For what it's worth, this time around, there are spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin treasury companies, and supportive regulation as reasons to be optimistic.
3. Scarcity matters over the long term
It's easy to get caught up in forecasts about Bitcoin's price trajectory during the near term. However, what investors should really focus their attention on is what could happen over the long term, say five or 10 years from now.
That perspective will force investors to think about what matters most. In Bitcoin's case, it's the simple fact that there will only ever be 21 million coins in circulation. This is a hard supply cap that separates Bitcoin from virtually any other asset on the planet. After the latest halving, Bitcoin's annual supply growth rate is lower than gold's, making the digital asset scarcer.
As more capital over time starts to gravitate toward something that can't be debased, Bitcoin's price is likely to be much higher far into the future.
Should you buy stock in Bitcoin right now?
Before you buy stock in Bitcoin, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,628!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,063,471!*
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,041% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 183% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025
Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
3 Reasons the Bitcoin Surge Isn't Over was originally published by The Motley Fool
登入存取你的投資組合
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Asian shares are mixed after US stocks fall on weakened hopes for a September interest rate cut
MANILA, Philippines (AP) — Asian shares were mixed on Thursday after most U.S. stocks slipped, as doubts rose on Wall Street about whether the Federal Reserve will deliver economy-juicing cuts to interest rates by September. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9% to 41,020.91 after the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.5% and raised inflation projections. The move follows Tokyo's trade deal with Washington. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1% to 24,920.67, while the Shanghai Composite Index slid 0.7% to 3,588.73. In Seoul, the Kospi edged down 0.3% to 3,244.40 after South Korea reached a 15% tariff deal with the U.S., with no levies on American goods like cars, trucks and farm products. The deal also includes South Korea's purchase of $100 billion U.S. energy imports and $350 billion worth of investments in the U.S. Australia's S&P ASX 200 shed 0.1% to 8,743.80. India's BSE Sensex added 0.2% to 81,481.86. Taiwan's TAIEX rose 0.4% to 23,551.92. Rabo Bank, citing the U.S. trade deals with other countries, including Bangladesh, said in a commentary that 'it appears to be only a matter of time before India agrees to terms to ensure that it retains favorable access to the US market and all of those other markets that (U.S. President Donald) Trump has demonstrated he has the power to direct through economic coercion.' Rabo added that the terms of a U.S.-India trade deal would almost certainly include Indian purchases of U.S. arms and energy products and preferential access to U.S. agricultural goods. 'A potential loser in all of this is Australia. With the US sending more wheat to Indonesia and Bangladesh and more LNG to Japan and South Korea, Australian exports stand to be displaced from their traditional markets,' it added. Trump on Wednesday announced a 25% tariff on imports coming from India, along with an additional tax because of India's purchases of Russian oil, beginning on Aug. 1. That's when stiff tariffs Trump has proposed for many other countries are also scheduled to kick in, unless they reach trade deals that lower the rates. But the U.S. president said the two countries were still in negotiations. On Wall Street on Wednesday the S&P 500 edged down by 0.1%, coming off its first loss after setting all-time highs for six successive days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 171 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.1%. Stocks felt pressure from rising Treasury yields in the bond market after the Federal Reserve voted to hold its main interest rate steady. The move may upset Trump, who has been lobbying for lower interest rates, but it was widely expected on Wall Street. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have surprised investors by pushing back on expectations that the Fed could cut rates at its next meeting in September. Besides Trump, two members of the Fed's committee have also been calling for lower rates to ease the pressure on the economy, and they dissented in Wednesday's vote. But Powell would not commit to a September cut in rates, pointing to how inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, while the job market still looks to be 'in balance.' A cut in rates would give the job market and overall economy a boost, but it could also risk fueling inflation when Trump's tariffs may be set to raise prices for U.S. consumers. The Fed's job is to keep both the job market and inflation in a good place. In other dealings on Thursday, U.S. benchmark crude oil lost 4 cents to $69.96 per barrel while Brent crude, the international standard, shed 13 cents to $72.34 per barrel. The U.S. dollar fell to 148.87 Japanese yen from 149.44. The euro rose to $1.1422 from $1.1412. ___ AP Business Writer Stan Choe contributed. Teresa Cerojano, The Associated Press Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Microsoft's Xbox Shoots to PlayStation Top?10
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) saw shares tick up after six of the ten best?selling games on Sony's PlayStation turned out to be Xbox titles. You read that right; Forza Horizon 5, The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, Doom: The Dark Ages, Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, plus Minecraft all cracked PlayStation's top ten. Only MLB: The Show 25 and Death Stranding 2: On the Beach were Sony exclusives. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 7 Warning Sign with MSFT. This crossover success highlights how Microsoft's multi?console strategy and Game Pass ecosystem are reshaping gaming habits. With Game Pass topping 37 million subscribers, Microsoft bundles day?one Xbox releases into a $16 monthly subscription, while Sony's $10 PlayStation Plus still lacks first?party day?one titles. On top of that, Xbox Cloud Gaming is live in over 25 markets, letting you stream blockbuster games on phone or tablet without a console. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Yahoo
20 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Altria (MO) Extends $3B Credit Line Amid Strong Dividend History
Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) is one of the defensive stocks that billionaires are buying amid US trade tariff uncertainty. On July 23, Altria Group announced an extension of its $3.0 billion five-year revolving credit agreement, shifting the expiration date from October 2028 to October 2029. The deal, originally signed in October 2023, involves JPMorgan Chase and Citibank as administrative agents. All other terms remain unchanged. Altria continues to maintain a strong financial position, offering a robust 6.83% dividend yield and making payouts for 55 consecutive years. The involved lenders already provide Altria with financial services, including investment banking, trust operations, and cash management. Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO) is a leading American tobacco company known for producing and marketing cigarettes and related products worldwide, while also expanding into innovative nicotine alternatives like electronic vaping devices and oral nicotine pouches as part of its strategy to diversify its portfolio and adapt to shifting consumer preferences. While we acknowledge the potential of MO as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 11 Best 52-Week High Stocks to Buy Now and 10 Best Biotech Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Steve Cohen. Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
