How are Dolphins in this spot in Year 7? Weren't these supposed to be the glory years?

Miami Herald

2 days ago

These were supposed to be the 21st Century halcyon years of Miami Dolphins football, a blissful four- or five-year run of sustained winning that would validate the 2019 semi-tank and restore the franchise to greatness or at least, semi-goodness.
That was the plan, at least, when owner Stephen Ross decided to sacrifice the 2019 season and to an extent, 2020, because he had grown weary of 9-7 and 7-9 seasons and prioritized building a foundation for a long-term Super Bowl contender.
The 2024 and 2025 seasons were projected to be the culmination of those efforts, with a team constructed around seven years of draft picks and key acquisitions via trade and free agency.
Many of these 14 players were supposed to comprise that nucleus: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Christian Wilkins, Zach Sieler, Jevon Holland, Andrew Van Ginkel, Terron Armstead, Austin Jackson, Jaylen Waddle, Connor Williams and Jonnu Smith. Most would still be in their prime.
But then a crushing concoction of bad decisions, salary cap problems and bad luck torpedoed Super Bowl dreams: Tagovailoa's concussions; an unwillingness and to a lesser extent, an inability, to pay Wilkins, Holland, Van Ginkel and Hunt; a contract disagreement with Smith, who was jettisoned to Pittsburgh; Ramsey's general surliness and unhappiness, leading to a trade request; Williams' devastating knee injury, ending the Dolphins' best year of center play since the Mike Pouncey era; Armstead's knee problems, prematurely ending his career; a bit of a mystifying regression by Hill and Waddle and devastating longterm injuries to Phillips (two of them) and Chubb.
And oh yes, don't forget Pro Bowl cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones teetering out, due to age and injuries.
Now let's be clear: The salary cap would not have permitted Miami to keep all 14 of those players. But whether they kept the rights ones is the question; the Dolphins this season are allocating $54 million in cap space to players not the roster, including Ramsey, and $33 million of dead money on next year's cap, per overthecap.com.
And that speaks to the No. 1 factor that helped ruin another era of Dolphins football: poor decisions — at backup quarterback, the offensive line, the free agents prioritized and now, seemingly, at cornerback, where Miami entered the week woefully short of merely adequate.
So instead of constructing a team built to stack up with Baltimore and Buffalo and Kansas City, Miami begins training camp this week with nothing more than a fringe wild card contender, a team with arguably more questions than answers.
A panel of ESPN experts ranked every team this week and placed the Dolphins 24th, between Las Vegas and Indianapolis.
The team that takes the field on Wednesday features too many potential starters who haven't earned the type of trust than any team that fashions itself a genuine contender should.
That's not to suggest that offensive linemen Patrick Paul and Jonah Savaiinea, tight ends Darren Waller and Julian Hill, cornerbacks Cam Smith and Storm Duck and safeties Ifeatu Melifonwu and Ashtyn Davis are bad players. There's hope that Paul and Savaiinaea will be above-average linemen, and the two safeties have played generally well for other teams when healthy.
Waller — who has a $2 million non-guaranteed base salary — has much to prove after a year in retirement.
But none of those eight — five of whom might start — have yet earned trust (though Waller was a very good player five years ago). With Melifonwu and Davis, the lack of complete trust stems from a history of injuries and the lack of a track record as starters. They're missed 47 games over seven combined seasons — 31 for Melifonwu and 16 for Davis.
For Smith and Duck (who are competing for a starting cornerback job), it's shaky production at the core of the distrust. Smith had a 122.4 passer rating in his coverage area last season and hasn't been able to stay healthy. Duck flashed early as an undrafted rookie but closed with a bloated 104.5 passer rating in his coverage area.
The salary cap makes it impossible for any team to field sure things at every position. But the Dolphins could have easily created the cap space to sign above average starters at safety (Jeremy Chinn) and cornerback (Byron Murphy)..
They could have prioritized Wilkins (who is now out for Oakland with a foot injury) and Van Ginkel instead of, say, Waddle and giving an extension to a player who had a history of being a malcontent (Ramsey).
Remember, the Vikings gave Van Ginkel only $2 million more guaranteed than Miami gave Shaq Barrett, who retired before training camp last season while Van Ginkel had 11.5 sacks in a Pro Bowl season for Minnesota.
They could have found a better third defensive lineman than Benito Jones.
With an unproven starter in Paul, they could have signed a better left tackle than Larry Borom, who allowed seven sacks in just 237 pass blocking snaps last season.
They could have waited out the backup quarterback market instead of immediately giving $6 million guaranteed (and up to $10 million) for underachieving Zach Wilson, who has the third-worst career passer rating among active quarterbacks.
They could have spent to the cap or higher instead of spending well under the cap this season, which is unusual for them.
Instead, they're left with a roster that Pro Football Focus and ESPN both say is the 24th best (or ninth worst) in football. FanDuel has the Dolphins over/under for wins at a sad 8.5.
So this is we are in Year 7 of this overhaul?
There's still a chance the Dolphins can beat out the Chargers, Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, New England and maybe the Colts for one of three wild card spots.
But it would take a laundry list of ifs to fall their way — if all of the aforementioned players (and first-round pick Kenneth Grant) play well; if Chubb and Phillips and Jackson — who have all had multiple major injuries — stay healthy; if James Daniels comes back seamlessly from a torn Achilles; if Jaylen Wright, Ollie Gordon II or Alexander Mattison emerges as a very good No. 2 back behind De'Von Achane; if Kader Kohou plays like he did in years one and years three and not like he did in year two; if Hill and Waddle return to their vintage forms and eliminate the drops…
and most importantly:
4). If Mike McDaniel can find an answer to combat defenses that took away the big play last season, especially against good teams and on the road…
3). Cornerback can somehow be augmented in seven weeks before the season starts. (The Dolphins on Monday remained in negotiations with free agent and former Bills starter Rasul Douglas.)
2). If this offensive line suddenly becomes a strength after (as analytics guru Warren Sharp noted) two years of finishing in the bottom-10 of pass block win rate and second in holding penalties and after a 2024 season in which they had the highest rate of negative runs and the worst short yardage conversion rate in football.
1). If Tagovailoa can finally thrive against good defense and stay healthy, something he has done only once in his football life and yet something the team overlooked in giving him a $212 million extension, including $167.2 million guaranteed.
'They have a quarterback that's a starting level quarterback, but they play in the division with a league MVP and play in a conference with quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes,' ESPN's Tim Hasselbeck lamented on air a week ago. 'That's what they're dealing with as much as anything else.'
The rebuild hasn't been an unmitigated disaster, because there were two playoff appearances and nothing worse than 8-9.
But it has been a disappointment and it will be a failure unless there's a playoff win this season.
Perhaps a 21st century of low achievement finds a bolt of serendipity in year 7 of whatever this rebuild was and produces the single playoff win that should be the bare minimum of what's acceptable for all the hundreds of millions of dollars spent and draft resources allocated to this overhaul.
For now, that's wishful thinking, with vegasinsiders.com giving the Dolphins the 13th-longest odds to make the playoffs and a cornerback group that ESPN's Mina Kimes justifiably calls the worst in football.
Give the Dolphins another quarter century and maybe they will get it right.