Red Bull's real emergency as Max Verstappen to Mercedes reality comes to light
Red Bull have an emergency on their hands – but not the one that the whole Formula 1 paddock is talking about. Because, unless he has a huge change of heart, Max Verstappen is probably not going to join Mercedes ahead of 2026.
There are certainly some people in his camp who would like to see that happen. Where else do you think the rumours claiming the four-time champion is ready to quit Red Bull came from? And it's true that Verstappen is frustrated with Red Bull's current position – he wants to win the title every year but they cannot compete with McLaren on that front.
But, for the Dutchman, the idea of completing his whole F1 career with Red Bull is appealing. If they tumble completely away from contention at the front of the grid, then it will be a tougher decision. But right now he is still competing for and securing pole positions and victories, as he did at Silverstone on Sunday.
And, at Mercedes, they look set to end the argument once and for all. They have made George Russell wait but at no point has he doubted that his future lies with the Silver Arrows. "The likelihood I'm not at Mercedes next year is, I think, exceptionally low," he said ahead of the British Grand Prix.
And his patience is set to be rewarded in the coming weeks with the potential for a deal to be agreed by the next race in Belgium at the end of this month. Russell has made no contact whatsoever with Red Bull or other teams about a 2026 seat, further evidence of his belief that he has nothing to worry about.
Red Bull's actual problem is their car, which remains far too temperamental. There are certain tracks and conditions where it is good enough for Verstappen to wrestle it into contention, as he did at Silverstone. But, just a week earlier in Austria, even before he was punted off by Kimi Antonelli on the first lap, Red Bull were nowhere at the circuit which bears their name.
The situation is not being helped by their ongoing search for a second driver who can even get close to Verstappen. Swapping out a floundering Liam Lawson for the more experienced Yuki Tsunoda made sense at the time. But Red Bull are still without a second driver who can provide lap times that their engineers can use as a comparison to Verstappen's data.
And that makes it very tough to develop their car. Tsunoda qualified 12th at Silverstone on Saturday with a lap time half-a-second slower than Verstappen's effort in Q2. The Dutchman's pole lap was almost a full second quicker than his team-mate's best effort.
It is, of course, not a problem exclusive to Tsunoda. He, Lawson, Sergio Perez, Alex Albon and Pierre Gasly have all wilted under the spotlight over the last six years. And then there is the engine. Red Bull are building their own for 2026, which they have never done before.
Senior figures at the team truly believe it will be "competitive" – that's the word they're using a lot. But sources don't seem particularly confident that it will be good enough to win races next year. And if that happens, perhaps they will then truly have to worry about Verstappen's future.
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