ASX to fall; investors fret Iran attack will upend long bull run
The price of oil will spike as markets open and could even soar beyond $US100 a barrel after the Trump administration's intervention into a weeks-long war between Israel and Iran unsettles financial markets.
While the price of Brent crude has drifted more than 10 per cent higher since Israel first launched an attack on Iranian nuclear assets two weeks ago, traders fear US President Donald Trump's authorisation of bombing at the weekend will lead to a rapid escalation in the conflict.
In particular, traders are worried that Iran could constrict travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil that connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. If this closes, prices could increase significantly, pushing inflation higher and disrupting expectations that central banks including the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep cutting rates.
'For markets, this shatters the illusion of containment. What was a regional proxy conflict is now a high-stakes, US-driven air war targeting [weapons of mass destruction] infrastructure – with unpredictable spillovers across energy markets, global shipping lanes, and risk sentiment,' wrote SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes of the bombing of nuclear facilities.
'This is no longer a waiting game – it's a market moment that demands positioning, not passivity,' he said in his Dark Side of the Boom newsletter.
The S&P/ASX 200 is priced to open 0.2 per cent lower on Monday, although those futures were set before the weekend strikes. Wall Street had ended the last week mostly lower, although traders had hedged their bets and markets had remained largely flat for days. The S&P fell 0.2 per cent, while the Dow and the Nasdaq rose 0.1 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. The ASX 200 eased 0.5 per cent last week, the first weekly drop in three months.
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SBS Australia
an hour ago
- SBS Australia
Signs of progress on a Gaza ceasefire as Iran says it will 'never stop' nuclear program
Listen to Australian and world news, and follow trending topics with SBS News Podcasts . Days after the announcement of an Iran-Israel ceasefire - and the US strikes on Iran that preceded it - the answer to one question remains unclear. How much was Iran's nuclear program set back by the damage from the US strikes? A leaked early assessment from US intelligence came to a different conclusion from that reached by US President Donald Trump and the White House. Instead of a setback of years, the leaked report said the timeframe was months. Rafael Grossi is the director general of the UN's nuclear monitoring group, the International Atomic Energy Agency - or I-A-E-A, which has been assessing Iran's compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. He told C-B-S, his view aligns with that of the US Defense Intelligence Agency. "Describing this as a very serious level of damage. What happened in particular in Fordo, Natanz, Isfahan, where Iran used to have and still has, to some degree, capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree. Some is still standing. There is, of course, an important setback in terms of those of those capabilities. This is clear. And now the important issue - the important thing is - what are the next steps?" Earlier this month, [[on June 12]], the agency formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. On the same day, Israel launched a military operation targeting Iran's nuclear sites, saying Iran must not be allowed the capacity to build a nuclear weapon. In the aftermath, Iran's Supreme National Security Council has banned inspectors from the I-A-E-A, saying it wants assurances the country's nuclear facilities will not be attacked again. Mr Grossi says it is important that the agency's inspectors continue to have access to monitor Iran's nuclear program. "The work will have to continue. Otherwise, nobody will have an idea of what is happening in Iran. Iran will continue with a nuclear program - the contours of which are still to be seen. And will be - I am sure - part of this negotiations which I hope will be resuming soon." After the leaked intelligence report, the US President spent the past week insisting the US strikes 'obliterated' Iran's three nuclear facilities, rendering long-term damage. Now, he is taking a new approach. He says his focus is finding out who leaked the intelligence report, which he called incomplete and biased. Mr Trump told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo, his administration may prosecute journalists who don't give up their sources on the leaked report. Maria Bartiromo: "The Democrats leaked intelligence - " Donald Trump: "They should be prosecuted." Maria Bartiromo: "Who specifically? Would you be able to find out..." Donald Trump: "We can find out. We could find out easily. You could tell the reporter: national security. Who gave it? You have to do that. And I will suspect that we will be doing things like that." The US and Israel have suggested that they would resume strikes on Iran, if Iran decides to rebuild its nuclear program. The I-A-E-A says it has assessed that Iran possesses significant nuclear capabilities, but it has not found concrete evidence of a systematic effort to build a nuclear weapon. The agency has found that - of the 30 countries capable of developing nuclear weapons, Israel is among nine that possess them [[along with Russia, the US, China, France, the UK, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea]]. 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"Of course, we will also have to solve the Gaza issue, to defeat Hamas, and secure the release of the hostages. I believe we will achieve both tasks release of hostages, but beyond that, broad regional possibilities open up." Twenty hostages remain in captivity in Gaza, while Hamas is also holding the bodies of 30 who have died. Meanwhile, Israel has continued its deadly attacks in Gaza, issuing evacuation orders to those in the north of the enclave, covering the Jabalia area and most Gaza City districts. In Gaza City, Sariah Badrah says an end to the 20-month war can't come soon enough. "They want to destroy the square, so we fled, and our children are fleeing behind us. They are taking only a few things to get out of the house in the morning and at night, while the shells fall like rain. The F16s fire, the tanks fire and the drones attack. May God be with us." The Gaza war began when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing nearly 1,200 people, and taking 251 others hostage. Since then, Israel's military assault in Gaza has killed at least 56,500 Palestinians.
SBS Australia
an hour ago
- SBS Australia
SBS News In Easy English 30 June 2025
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Perth Now
an hour ago
- Perth Now
US Senate extends vote on Trump's 'big beautiful bill'
The US Senate has extended its debate on President Donald Trump's controversial budget, with the expectation of voting on the plan, which would add more than $5 trillion to the public debt. Republicans told the media that the "vote-a-rama" would begin at 9am local time on Monday (11pm AEST), the process in which lawmakers present amendments to the initiative, which contains key elements of Trump's agenda, such as tax and public spending cuts, and increased funding for defence and immigration control. It is still uncertain whether all 53 senators from Trump's party will support the bill, as it would add $US3.3 trillion ($A5.1 trillion) to the public debt within 10 years, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now estimates, a higher estimate than the $US2.4 ($A3.7) trillion in the version approved by the House in May. Other lawmakers question the cuts to social programs such as Medicaid and food stamps because the CBO predicts that 12 million people will lose their health insurance by 2034 under the initiative, which would cut $US1.1 trillion ($A1.7 trillion) in public health policies. Among the critics is Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who resigned from his re-election bid on Sunday after publicly opposing the bill and drawing criticism from Trump. "Facts matter, people matter. The Senate's approach to Medicaid breaks promises and will push people who truly need it off Medicaid," the lawmaker said. Elon Musk, also took a swipe at the bill, which would end tax breaks for the electric vehicles that his automaker Tesla manufactures, posting on X it was "utterly insane and destructive" and "political suicide for the Republican Party". Meanwhile, Democrats displayed unified opposition by first forcing 16 hours of reading aloud of the 940-page bill and then exhausting the 10 hours of debate allotted to each party to delay the process and highlight the tax cuts for the wealthy and the budget. "Democrats are exposing on the floor through parliamentary inquiries the hypocrisy of what Republicans are trying to do here in the Senate. We are exposing how Republicans are trying to hide the true cost of their gifts to billionaires," Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said. Trump intensified his lobbying in the last week to get the Senate to approve his controversial "Big, Beautiful Bill" for signing by Friday, Independence Day. The controversy grew this week after the release of the 940-page draft currently being discussed by the Senate. It includes more cuts than those approved by the House of Representatives, particularly to social programs and tax incentives for wind and solar energy, and electric vehicles.
