Why mega-merger speculation between oil majors Shell and BP is raising eyebrows

CNBC

26-06-2025

British oil giant Shell on Thursday said it has "no intention" of making an offer for its embattled domestic rival BP , further distancing itself from reports of a blockbuster takeover . It comes shortly after the Wall Street Journal reported late Wednesday that Shell was in early-stage talks to acquire BP in a deal valued near $80 billion. Shell swiftly denied talks were taking place and re-emphasized its commitment to focus on capital discipline. A spokesperson at BP declined to comment. BP has been thrust into the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate , following a protracted period of underperformance relative to its industry peers. Energy analysts remain skeptical about the merits of a prospective Shell-BP tie-up, however, pointing out that speculation surrounding a landmark combination is far from new. "Absent a very attractive valuation, we do not see the merits of buying BP as it would not necessarily leave Shell better off or address its lack of growth, even as it would get it back into the Permian," Allen Good, director of equity research at Morningstar, told CNBC by email. He added that such a deal could have appeal under the correct valuation — if Shell were able to reduce combined costs and spending and divest assets that BP otherwise might not. "Positively, it would also place BP's assets in the hands of a management team that has deftly guided Shell through a strategic pivot. From this perspective, selling BP might be the best thing BP's board and management could do for shareholders," he said. For months now, BP has sought to fend off a prospective takeover by restoring investor confidence. The company launched a fundamental strategic reset earlier in the year and, despite posting weaker-than-expected first-quarter profit, CEO Murray Auchincloss told CNBC in late April that the firm was " off to a great start " in delivering on its new direction. BP shares have stabilized in recent weeks, following a sharp fall in early April, as trade war volatility rocked financial markets. The stock price is down more than 6% in the year to date. 'Hugely complex' Among other concerns, energy analysts have flagged that a Shell-BP merger would likely trigger antitrust concerns, particularly given the potential for job losses. Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said Shell doubling down on its denial of an offer for BP fits with the firm's "well-defined" capital allocation policy. "While it is possible to make a case for a deal on the scale it would provide in oil and gas, and perhaps on valuation grounds, any integration would be far from straightforward, given the companies' different cultures and the likely job losses, which could well have proven politically sensitive," Mould told CNBC by email. "Talking about these things is easy. Making them work, to the benefit of shareholders and stakeholders, is not," he added. Shell investors will be relieved by the firm's quashing of the story, Mould said, noting the oil major's share price fell on Wednesday when rumors of a prospective bid resurfaced. Shares of Shell were trading nearly 1% higher on Thursday morning. The stock price is up over 4% so far this year. "I'm not going to get drawn into the speculation around BP and Shell other than to say that even if something were to happen, [it is] hugely complex, hugely overlapping portfolios and a lot of regulatory hurdles to jump through," Nick Wayth, CEO of the Energy Institute, told CNBC's " Squawk Box Europe " on Thursday. Wayth, who worked for BP from 1999 to 2020, confirmed he still holds some BP stock.