BRICS fills soft-power vacuum as Trump-led U.S. retreats

Japan Times

a day ago

With the U.S. withdrawing from international organizations and alienating other countries with tariffs, the 10-nation BRICS grouping of major emerging economies has been gradually stepping in to fill a growing soft-power vacuum, particularly among Global South countries.
Highlighting this approach was the group's two-day summit that ended Monday in Rio de Janeiro, where member states took a firm stance on topics such as strengthening multilateralism, establishing international artificial intelligence standards and tackling climate change as the BRICS aims to become a credible alternative to the established international order.
'This year's summit — particularly its efforts to align positions on artificial intelligence, health care and climate change — indicates that BRICS is evolving into a credible voice for the Global South, capable of setting new standards and norms,' said Sebastian Maslow, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo.
Maslow laid out a laundry list of areas where the U.S., under President Donald Trump, appears to be retreating.
From withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Paris climate agreement and undermining the World Trade Organization to engaging in unilateral military action against Iran and scaling back international aid, BRICS' emphasis on multilateral cooperation and development can be viewed as 'an attempt to fill the global governance vacuum' created by the Trump administration.
'As the U.S. grows increasingly unpredictable due to its 'America First' trade posture, BRICS has positioned itself as a defender of the international trade order, emphasizing rules and norms,' he added.
Yet the grouping, which represents about 40% of global economic output, also faces several issues, the greatest of which is arguably cohesion. BRICS heterogeneous nature makes it increasingly difficult for members to align their agendas across the board and therefore fully compete with — or complement — the U.S.-led Group of Seven.
The original bloc comprised Brazil, Russia, China and India. It later included South Africa, and last year added five new members — Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates — with 10 others becoming partner nations.
While the BRICS' expansion has given it boosted diplomatic and economic heft, it also means that its members, some of which are regional rivals, are increasingly divided over what the grouping's primary role should be.
For instance, it's still unclear whether it is mainly a multilateral organization focused on boosting development, a geopolitical instrument aimed at countering Western — particularly G7 — dominance, or a platform to overcome international isolation, as is notably the case with Russia.
'While the expansion increases the group's geographic footprint and share of the world's economy and population, it also underscores growing internal contradictions by bringing together democracies and autocracies with varying global ambitions,' said Mario Braga, Latin America analyst at U.S.-based geopolitics and intelligence firm RANE.
This, Braga added, 'will make it increasingly hard to reach consensus over the coming years.'
Trump sought to capitalize on these divisions by threatening on Sunday an additional 10% tariffs on any country that supports what he described as the BRICS' 'anti-American' policies. Trump didn't provide any explanation, but he had previously warned the bloc not to create a new currency or take steps to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency.
For now, Trump's stance appears to have been effective.
'At the BRICS summit, the group adopted a more cautious stance, driven by concerns over possible retaliatory measures from Washington,' said Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson.
BRICS nations are looking to fill a soft-power vacuum as the U.S., under President Donald Trump, appears to be retreating from the global stage. |
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'The final communique was notably broad and avoided contentious subjects, such as U.S. trade policy or BRICS initiatives that might diminish the dominance of the dollar, including the promotion of trade with local currency,' she added.
Nevertheless, the differences among member states haven't prevented leaders from gathering or carving out areas of alignment, including on climate change, health care and development aid, AI and global governance — collective efforts that continue to gain momentum among emerging economies.
On climate change, BRICS leaders formally endorsed at the summit the Tropical Forests Forever Facility mechanism Brazil had proposed at the United Nations COP28 climate summit in 2023. The TFFF framework aims to attract public and private investment to support forest preservation via a $125 billion endowment, RANE's Braga said, with China already signaling its willingness to invest.
China is key in this regard as it has become the world's leading producer of renewable energy and the largest producer of solar panels and wind turbines. Meanwhile, Brazil, which will be hosting the COP30 in November, is third globally in terms of installed renewable energy capacity, with 88% of its energy mix coming from renewable sources.
Arguably the most important factor for Global South countries is economic development, an area where the BRICS has pushed hard to promote its soft power by financing infrastructure and sustainable development projects through the group's New Development Bank (NDB).
'South-to-south collaboration in trade and investment continues to grow,' said Warwick Powell, an adjunct professor at the Queensland University of Technology. 'The NDB has increased its financing of development and infrastructure projects and will continue to do so.'
China, for its part, has made direct contributions to economic development via its Belt and Road initiative.
Meanwhile, the summit also saw the BRICS, which now represent more than half the world's population, aim to assume global leadership in eliminating what are called socially determined diseases, which are broadly defined as illnesses that "are closely linked to poverty, inequality, and inadequate living conditions."
In addition to promoting the research and development of innovative health approaches, BRICS leaders also recalled the central role in fostering multilateral and regional cooperation of the WHO — an organization the U.S. has withdrawn from twice under Trump.
Another area where BRICS nations are targeting a global role is in regulating nonmilitary AI. Leaders of the grouping are calling for international frameworks to avoid regulatory fragmentation — a move that could help avoid having individual states following their own set of rules.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang attends the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro on Sunday. |
AFP-JIJI
'Global South nations see AI as something that must be developed and governed in an inclusive manner,' Powell said, adding that this stands in contrast to the more zero-sum approach so far articulated by the Trump administration.
On the issue of multilateralism, BRICS has long pushed to reform global institutions such as the U.N. Security Council and the International Monetary fund to reflect what it views as the realities of multipolarity and the growing clout of emerging economies.
Yet experts such as Braga say that while there is indeed a gradual but growing shift in the global balance of power, the G7 will likely retain its status and decision-making power given its economic muscle and influence over global institutions.
If BRICS aspires to become a credible player in global governance, it must first 'institutionalize cooperation' in areas such as health care, climate action and humanitarian aid, Maslow said.
'Cooperation in these domains should develop a tangible presence similar to that achieved by development financing through the NDB,' he said.
Additionally, Maslow noted, BRICS members should temper anti-Western sentiments and its push to challenge the U.S. dollar.
'Such actions risk deepening internal divides,' he said. 'Countries like Brazil and India are unwilling to jeopardize their relationships with G7 members.'