Top three stocks to buy today—recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 18 July

Mint

15 hours ago

Indian stock market benchmarks—the Sensex and the Nifty 50—closed lower on Thursday, 17 July, amid profit booking in select heavyweights including Infosys, HDFC Bank, and Reliance Industries.
The Sensex declined 375 points, or 0.45%, to settle at 82,259.24, while the Nifty 50 fell 101 points, or 0.40%, ending the day at 25,111.45.
However, mid- and small-cap stocks outperformed. The BSE Midcap index edged up 0.07%, and the BSE Smallcap index gained 0.30%.
Top 3 stocks recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 18 July:
Why it's recommended: After recent selling pressure, Tata Steel has shown a strong pullback and broken above the upper trendline of a falling wedge pattern—a bullish reversal signal. The breakout signifies trend reversal and momentum pick-up, aiming for a short-term move towards ₹170+.
Key metrics: Breakout zone: Upper trendline breakout of falling wedge pattern, signalling trend reversal.
Pattern: Falling wedge breakout with bullish follow-through.
RSI: Recovering from oversold zone, confirming momentum shift.
Technical analysis: The structure suggests that the bottom may be in place, with higher highs and higher lows starting to form. Momentum is favouring the bulls for a target zone of ₹170 and potentially higher.
Risk factors: A move below ₹155 would invalidate the wedge breakout and may lead to renewed weakness. Use a strict stop-loss to manage risk.
Buy at: ₹159.90
Target price: ₹170.00+
Stop loss: ₹155.00
Why it's recommended: Prestige Estates Projects Ltd is exhibiting a strong bullish setup backed by a rectangle pattern breakout on the 45-minute chart at ₹1,770. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe is at 70, indicating solid momentum yet still positioned for further upside. This multi-timeframe confluence of breakout signals suggests strength in trend continuation.
Key metrics: Breakout zone: Rectangle breakout on 45-minute timeframe at ₹1,770 with high volume support.
Pattern: Rectangular range breakout confirming bullish continuation.
RSI: Bullish, currently at 70 on daily timeframe, suggesting strong trend with momentum.
Technical analysis: The stock's structure shows sustained bullishness, with the breakout level likely to serve as a strong support. If broader sentiment remains positive, the price is expected to test ₹1,815– ₹1,830 in the short term.
Risk factors: A close below ₹1,757 would negate the breakout signal and could lead to a short-term correction. Traders should trail with a tight stop-loss.
Buy at: ₹1,783.00
Target price: ₹1,815– ₹1,830
Stop loss: ₹1,757.00
Why it's recommended: On the daily chart, Jindal Steel & Power has broken out of a triangle pattern, hinting at a bullish continuation with a medium-term target of ₹1,100+. Additionally, the 15-minute timeframe shows a rectangle breakout near ₹950, aligning short- and medium-term momentum toward ₹980+.
Key metrics: Breakout zone: Triangle breakout on daily; rectangle breakout near ₹950 on intraday chart.
Pattern: Multi-timeframe confluence of bullish breakout structures.
RSI: Holding strong, supporting trend continuation.
Technical analysis: With clear breakout levels and alignment across timeframes, the setup points toward a steady climb toward ₹970– ₹980, with further upside if momentum persists.
Risk factors: A fall below ₹939 would negate the breakout structure, and short-term weakness could set in. Maintain a disciplined stop-loss.
Buy at: ₹950.45
Target price: ₹970– ₹980
Stop loss: ₹939.00
Stock market wrap - 17 July
Indian equity markets ended in the red on Thursday, 17 July, as sustained selling pressure across key sectors weighed on sentiment. Despite brief recovery attempts—particularly in select defensives—broader momentum remained weak, dragging major indices lower.
The Nifty 50 declined 100.60 points, or 0.40%, to close at 25,111.45, while the BSE Sensex fell 375.24 points, or 0.45%, to 82,259.24. The Bank Nifty also ended lower, down 340.15 points or 0.59%, at 56,828.80, as late buying failed to fully reverse earlier losses in financial stocks.
The sectoral picture was mixed, but the tone remained largely cautious. PSU Banks fell 0.79%, Services declined 0.67%, and the broader Banking index slipped 0.59%, reflecting profit booking and risk-off sentiment in high-beta pockets.
On the flip side, a few sectors offered support. Realty outperformed with a gain of 1.24%, while Metals and Pharma rose 0.67% and 0.38%, respectively, helping limit the downside.
In stock-specific action, Tata Consumer led the gainers with a 2.25% rise. Tata Steel and Hindalco climbed 1.63% and 1.17%, respectively, supported by continued institutional flows and positive cues in the metals space.
Meanwhile, the broader undertone remained bearish. Tech Mahindra shed 2.75%, IndusInd Bank lost 1.67%, and SBI Life Insurance fell 1.44%, reflecting caution in recent outperformers.
The Nifty 50 ended Thursday's session on a weak footing, closing at 25,111.45, down 100.60 points or 0.40%. The index slipped below the key psychological level of 25,200, indicating a deterioration in short-term sentiment.
Technically, the Nifty is now trading below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 25,325, while hovering just above the 40-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 25,042. This setup suggests the upside is likely capped unless the index decisively reclaims the 20-DMA. Until that happens, the broader trend remains fragile and skewed to the downside.
On the hourly chart, the index has slipped below both its 20-hour SMA at 25,210 and 40-hour EMA at 25,182, confirming short-term weakness. More importantly, Nifty has broken below the lower boundary of a rising wedge pattern, which is a bearish development. This breakdown projects a near-term downside target of around 24,950, especially if the index fails to hold above the immediate support at 25,000.
Momentum indicators reflect growing weakness. The daily RSI has dropped to 47.5, moving into neutral-bearish territory, while the hourly RSI has declined further to 38, indicating strong intraday selling pressure. The daily MACD remains positive at 66, suggesting that the medium-term structure hasn't turned fully negative yet, but the hourly MACD at –21 confirms a clear short-term loss of momentum.
Options data also paints a bearish picture. Total Call open interest stands at 7.28 crore compared to Put open interest at 5.08 crore, with a net difference of –2.21 crore, indicating a dominant call writing bias. The highest Call OI and maximum additions are at the 26,000 strike, implying strong resistance overhead. On the Put side, the highest additions were at the 24,900 strike, highlighting that support is now shifting lower. The intraday change in OI also shows a net bearish bias, with Call OI rising by 3.32 crore and Put OI by only 1.81 crore, resulting in a negative OI change difference of –1.51 crore. This reinforces the view that traders are preparing for further downside.
In summary, the Nifty's short-term trend has weakened following a breakdown below critical support levels and key moving averages. Unless the index manages to reclaim 25,325 and eventually close above 25,700, the market structure remains vulnerable. A decisive break below 25,000 could accelerate the selling pressure toward 24,950 or even 24,800. Traders should stay cautious, avoid aggressive long positions, and monitor price action closely around the 25,000 mark, which has now become the immediate make-or-break level for the index.