Federal cuts may hurt Maine's ability to meet climate goals, scientists say
That will be hard to do under a proposed federal budget that cuts funds for a national ocean monitoring system.
"People are talking (about the cooling). Is this a reset?" asked Susie Arnold, a marine scientist with the Island Institute in Rockland. "Well, what do you use to find that out? You look at the buoys. Those are one of the primary tools that we use to understand oceanography in the Gulf of Maine."
Arnold was referring to a network of floating research stations that monitor currents, temperature and other data points used by scientists to track changes in the gulf.
She is one of about 40 scientists who advise the Maine Climate Council, the state-appointed commission that develops the state climate action plan, Maine Won't Wait. The scientists provide the raw science behind the plan, documenting the effects of climate change and projecting future sea level rise and warming.
And these scientists are worried, both about the coming changes in climate and their ability to study them. And they believe recent federal budget and staffing cuts may prevent Maine from achieving its climate goals, including those set in the November update to Maine Won't Wait but also those already codified in state law.
Federal grant cuts might mean they won't even have the tools to know if Maine is meeting its goals.
Maine has written four greenhouse gas goals into state law to compel the government to do its part to curb climate change and prevent the earth from overheating: cut emissions 10% from 1990 levels by 2020, 45% by 2030, 80% by 2050, and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
Last year, the Department of Environmental Protection announced Maine had met its easiest emissions goal — a 10% reduction by 2020 — and was 91% of the way toward meeting its carbon neutrality goal by 2045. It has a long way to go for its next goal — 17.3 million tons, or a 45% cut — and only six years to do it.
Maine relies on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's state inventory and projection tool as a starting point to estimate its gross greenhouse gas inventory. DEP is "cautiously optimistic" that annual updates to this tool will continue, but it won't know for sure until November, when the EPA's next data release is scheduled.
Members of the council's scientific and technical subcommittee, which Arnold co-chairs, met Thursday to talk about writing a new report on both the evolving science, including the Gulf of Maine's new deep water cooling trend, and the changed political landscape. They decided to write an update to last year's plan by April.
They cited more than a dozen at-risk or eliminated federally run or funded scientific programs, ranging from an environmental justice screening tool that Maine uses to help identify socially vulnerable communities to coastal zone management grants that help communities prepare and bounce back from climate challenges like flooding.
The U.S. Center for Disease Control climate and health program is targeted for elimination in Trump's proposed budget, and most of its staff has been fired. Without this funding, Maine will probably have to scrap its statewide pollen monitoring network before it fully starts and suspend plans to help counties develop extreme heat plans.
The scientists tried to maintain political neutrality while ticking off the disappearing federal climate data sources.
"We're not the Union of Concerned Scientists," said co-chair Ivan Fernandez of the University of Maine's Climate Change Institute, referring to a group of scientists who advocate for aggressive action against climate change. "That said, the kind of information that we've seen in the inventory clearly impacts how we think about the research that's being done in critical questions, monitoring, and data sets."
That clearly hinders the work of scientists, the subcommittee and the Maine Climate Council as a whole, he said.
In some cases, the state could turn to private climate data sources, but that could raise concerns over objectivity, such as who is funding that data collection. Scientists noted it could also drive up the costs of accessing that data after the private companies have the market to themselves.
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B.C. climate news: Crews battle 147 wildfires in B.C. Trump cancels plans for offshore wind projects
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The mysterious substance, now informally named 'ShipGoo001,' had seemingly been thriving in the oxygen-free environment of the rudder shaft, according to a June 27 university announcement. 'There's no reason to expect any living organisms to be in this part of the ship,' Ricketts said, referring to the closed-off rudder shaft housing. 'This particular piece of a ship doesn't really move a lot. It's not exposed to the rest of the world.' If more goo is found, the goal will be to collect it without disturbing its oxygen-free environment, said lead researcher Cody Sheik, a microbial ecologist at Large Lakes Observatory. More careful study could lead to further discovery of new species of microbes, he added. 'One of the things that's fun about this, is that it was very unexpected. … All of these different things that we make become new habitats that (could be) right for microorganisms,' Sheik said. 'It makes me wonder: What else are we missing by not going out and just looking at something?' Studying the mysterious goo While some of the DNA extracted from the black goo was found to be from previously unknown microorganisms, other genetic material in the sample has been observed across the world. When researchers searched global databases, they discovered some DNA was related to microbes from a tarball-type substance in the Mediterranean, a hydrocarbon-contaminated sediment in Calgary, Alberta, and other samples from the coast of California to Germany. 'It's kind of all over the board in terms of what sort of environments these things are being found in,' Sheik said. 'I think we'll get a better idea of what these organisms are capable of by thinking more broadly about the other environments that they're found in.' The researchers still have many unanswered questions about the odd material, including how it came to be on the ship and whether it is capable of biocorrosion — eating or degrading the ship's steel. Since the substance was in its own sealed environment, it would need a complex food web to be able to thrive and sustain itself. '(Biocorrosion) is one of the things we have to worry about in oil pipelines and all these other really key infrastructure places. And so, you know, for some of these ships, especially the ones that are really long-lived here on the Great Lakes, because they're in fresh water, is this something where they could be corroding this area? It may be something to think about for future iterations of shipbuilding and things like that,' Sheik said. Researchers hope to answer these questions in a forthcoming research paper, which will also include the full genomes of the goo's microorganisms so other scientists can build on their work, Sheik added. Depending on what the researchers find, the material could have practical applications; methane-producing organisms in the substance could have potential use in biofuel production, according to the university's announcement. For now, researchers are keeping an eye out for more of the substance in the ship, and on other vessels, so they can gather additional samples and run further tests. The origin of the goo Because there are so many microbial species in the world — potentially up to 1 trillion — finding a new one isn't particularly surprising, said Jeffrey Marlow, an assistant professor of biology at Boston University. 'It's all about where they're found and what their genomic history or metabolic capacity is — that's what often makes a new species particularly exciting,' he added in an email. To ascertain the origin of the substance, Sheik and his team are putting together a history of the ship, as the former fishing boat was purchased pre-owned nearly three decades ago by the University of Minnesota Duluth. While the ship's rudder is not meant to be lubricated with anything other than water, it's possible that the previous owners oiled that area and those organisms laid dormant for years. What's more, the goo was not present during the ship's last inspection in November 2021. Marlow, who was not involved in the discovery, hypothesized that the ooze could have wound up in the rudder shaft by catching a ride on marine snow — clumps of dead organic matter that sink through the water column and contain oxygen-free pockets, he explained. Sheik plans to explore the goo's origin, noting that there are many scenarios to consider, including whether the substance grew in the rudder shaft in the first place or somehow hitched a ride on the boat. 'One of the coolest parts of this story is the fact that the sample made it to the microbiologists in the first place — it speaks to a 'microbiologically literate' culture where several people had the awareness and curiosity to ask what might be living in an otherwise inconvenient ooze,' Marlow said. 'It makes you wonder what other fascinating microbes could be living around us in the most unexpected places.' Taylor Nicioli is a freelance journalist based in New York. Sign up for CNN's Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more. Solve the daily Crossword
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Federal Reserve economists aren't sold that AI will actually make workers more productive, saying it could be a one-off invention like the light bulb
A new Federal Reserve Board staff paper concludes that generative artificial intelligence (gen AI) holds significant promise for boosting U.S. productivity, but cautions that its widespread economic impact will depend on how quickly and thoroughly firms integrate the technology. Titled 'Generative AI at the Crossroads: Light Bulb, Dynamo, or Microscope?' the paper, authored by Martin Neil Baily, David M. Byrne, Aidan T. Kane, and Paul E. Soto, explores whether gen AI represents a fleeting innovation or a groundbreaking force akin to past general-purpose technologies (GPTs) such as electricity and the internet. The Fed economists ultimately conclude their 'modal forecast is for a noteworthy contribution of gen AI to the level of labor productivity,' but caution they see a wide range of plausible outcomes, both in terms of its total contribution to making workers more productive and how quickly that could happen. To return to the light-bulb metaphor, they write that 'some inventions, such as the light bulb, temporarily raise productivity growth as adoption spreads, but the effect fades when the market is saturated; that is, the level of output per hour is permanently higher, but the growth rate is not.' Here's why they regard it as an open question whether gen AI may end up being a fancy tech version of the light bulb. Gen AI: A tool and a catalyst According to the authors, gen AI combines traits of GPTs—those that trigger cascades of innovation across sectors and continue improving over time—with features of 'inventions of methods of invention' (IMIs), which make research and development more efficient. The authors do see potential for gen AI to be a GPT like the electric dynamo, which continually sparked new business models and efficiencies, or an IMI like the compound microscope, which revolutionized scientific discovery. The Fed economists did caution that it is early in the technology's development, writing: 'The case that generative AI is a general-purpose technology is compelling, supported by the impressive record of knock-on innovation and ongoing core innovation.' Since OpenAI launched ChatGPT in late 2022, the authors said gen AI has demonstrated remarkable capabilities, from matching human performance on complex tasks to transforming frontline work in writing, coding, and customer service. That said, the authors noted they are finding scant evidence that many companies are actually using the technology. Limited but growing adoption Despite such promise, the paper stresses that most gains are so far concentrated in large corporations and digital-native industries. Surveys indicate high gen AI adoption among big firms and technology-centric sectors, while its use in small businesses and other functions lag behind. Data from job postings show only modest growth in demand for AI skills since 2017. 'The main hurdle is diffusion,' the authors write, referring to the process by which a new technology is integrated into widespread use. They note that typical productivity booms from GPTs like computers and electricity took decades to unfold as businesses restructured, invested, and developed complementary innovations. 'The share of jobs requiring AI skills is low and has moved up only modestly, suggesting that firms are taking a cautious approach,' they write. 'The ultimate test of whether gen AI is a GPT will be the profitability of gen AI use at scale in a business environment, and such stories are hard to come by at present.' They know that many individuals are using the technology, 'perhaps unbeknownst to their employers,' and they speculate that future use of the technology may become so routine and 'unremarkable' that companies and workers no longer know how much it's being used. Knock-on and complementary technologies The report details how gen AI is already driving a wave of product and process innovation. In health care, AI-powered tools draft medical notes and assist with radiology. Finance firms use gen AI for compliance, underwriting, and portfolio management. The energy sector uses it to optimize grid operations, and information technology is seeing multiple uses, with programmers using GitHub Copilot to complete tasks 56% faster. Call center operators using conversational AI saw a 14% productivity boost as well. Meanwhile, ongoing advances in hardware, notably rapid improvements in the chips known as graphics processing units, or GPUs, suggest gen AI's underlying engine is still accelerating. Patent filings related to AI technologies have surged since 2018, coinciding with the rise of transformer architecture—a backbone of today's large language models. 'Green shoots' in research and development The paper also finds gen AI increasingly acting as an IMI, enhancing observation, analysis, communication, and organization in scientific research. Scientists now use gen AI to analyze data, draft research papers, and even automate parts of the discovery process, though questions remain about the quality and originality of AI-generated output. The authors highlight growing references to AI in R&D initiatives, both in patent data and corporate earnings calls, as further evidence that gen AI is gaining a foothold in the innovation ecosystem. Cautious optimism—and open questions While the prospects for a gen-AI-driven productivity surge are promising, the authors warn against expecting overnight transformation. The process will require significant complementary investments, organizational change, and reliable access to computational and electric power infrastructure. They also emphasize the risks of investing blindly in speculative trends—a lesson from past tech booms. 'Gen AI's contribution to productivity growth will depend on the speed with which that level is attained, and historically, the process for integrating revolutionary technologies into the economy is a protracted one,' the report concludes. Despite these uncertainties, the authors believe gen AI's dual role—as a transformative platform and as a method for accelerating invention—bodes well for long-term economic growth if barriers to widespread adoption can be overcome. Still, what if it's just another light bulb? For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing. This story was originally featured on Sign in to access your portfolio
