CRSP, ABSI, IRDM: Cathie Wood Offloads $16.4M of CRISPR Therapeutics Stock, Buys Absci and Iridium
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Meanwhile, ARK funds added $6.2 million in biotechnology firm Absci Corp. (ABSI), purchased 262,141 shares of genomic diagnostics company Veracyte (VCYT), and acquired 69,969 shares of satellite company Iridium Communications (IRDM).
Wood Buys the Dip in Absci Stock
On July 25, Wood loaded up on 2.25 million shares of Absci, totaling $6.2 million. Absci leverages generative artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology to develop novel biologic drugs, primarily antibodies, for pharmaceutical and biotechnology partners. ABSI stock plunged 17.7% on Friday after the company announced a $50 million secondary offering of its common shares. Wood seems to have capitalized on the 'dip' in Absci shares to gain a notable position.
All seven analysts tracking ABSI stock have rated it a Strong Buy on TipRanks. The average Absci price target of $9.17 implies an impressive 217.3% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, ABSI stock has gained 10.3%.
Why Is Wood Dumping CRSP Stock?
Wood appears to have taken a bearish stance on gene-editing company Crispr, although she maintains a rather optimistic outlook on the overall genomics sector. On Friday, The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) sold 190,840 shares of Crispr worth $12.6 million, and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) sold another 58,268 shares of CRSP for $3.8 million.
Crispr is a Swiss-American biotech company focused on developing transformative gene-based medicines to treat serious diseases such as sickle cell disease, beta-thalassemia, various cancers, type 1 diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. It uses advanced gene-editing technology, primarily its CRISPR/Cas9 platform, to develop its medicines.
Despite the latest sale, CRSP remains the largest holding in the ARKG fund, with a market value of $137.5 million, and is also the fourth largest holding in the ARKK fund, with a market value of $450.6 million. Notably, CRSP stock has surged over 64% so far this year, backed by its revolutionary business model. Crispr is expected to release its Q2FY25 results in August. Wall Street expects CRSP to report a diluted loss of $1.4 per share, 1.3% better than the prior year's loss of $1.49. Revenues are expected to jump nearly 1100% year-over-year to $6.14 million.
On TipRanks, CRSP stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 14 Buys and seven Hold ratings. Also, the average Crispr Therapeutics price target of $69.38 implies 7.1% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, CRSP stock has soared 64.5%.
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UBS reports 2Q25 net profit of USD 2.4bn and USD 4.1bn for 1H25 with integration remaining on track; invested assets reach USD 6.6trn (Ad hoc announcement pursuant to Article 53 of the SIX Exchange Regulation Listing Rules)
ZURICH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Regulatory News: UBS (NYSE:UBS) (SWX:UBSN): 'We sustained robust momentum during a quarter that started with extreme volatility by staying close to our clients and executing on our integration plans. We also maintained a balance sheet for all seasons while delivering on our capital return plans. We are positioning for long term success by further enhancing our global capabilities, investing in our future infrastructure and AI, while actively engaging in the debate on future regulation in Switzerland. This allows us to fulfill our commitment to support all the communities where we live and work.' Sergio P. Ermotti, Group CEO 2Q25 PBT of USD 2.2bn and underlying 1 PBT of USD 2.7bn, net profit of USD 2.4bn, RoCET1 of 13.5% and underlying RoCET1 of 15.3%. Core businesses 2 increased combined underlying PBT by 25% YoY 1H25 PBT of USD 4.3bn and underlying PBT of USD 5.3bn, net profit of USD 4.1bn, RoCET1 of 11.6% and underlying RoCET1 of 13.3% Continued client momentum in a volatile environment supporting growth in Group invested assets, with Global Wealth Management 1H25 net new assets of USD 54.8bn. GWM 2Q25 transaction-based income +12% YoY and best second quarter in Global Markets with revenues up 25% YoY supported by record balances and revenues in Prime Brokerage Integration remains on track with one-third of client accounts booked in Switzerland migrated. Delivered further USD 0.7bn in exit rate gross cost saves bringing cumulative cost reductions to USD 9.1bn, or 70% of the USD ~13bn in expected gross saves Continued progress in Non-core and Legacy wind-down and legal entity structure simplification; NCL risk- weighted assets down by USD 1.5bn sequentially to USD 32.7bn Maintained strong capital position with 14.4% CET1 capital ratio and 4.4% CET1 leverage ratio. Our ability to generate capital is funding strategic investments and sustainable shareholder returns Delivering on our capital return plans for 2025, completed USD 0.5bn in share buybacks and plan to complete repurchase of up to USD 2.0bn in the second half of the year. Continued accruing for a double-digit growth in dividend Reliable partner for the Swiss economy, staying close to private clients and businesses with our balance sheet for all seasons and leading credit offering. Granted or renewed around CHF 40bn of loans during the quarter Positioning for long-term success by strengthening global capabilities and investing into future-ready infrastructure and tools, including Gen AI and cloud to enable secure, scalable delivery and boosting productivity. Meanwhile, actively engaging in debate on future regulatory requirements in Switzerland Group summary Strong financial performance In 2Q25, we reported PBT of USD 2,193m and underlying PBT of USD 2,683m, up 49% and 30% YoY, respectively, driven by growth in our core businesses, which increased their combined underlying pre-tax profits by 25% YoY. Net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 2,395m, up 111% YoY and included a net release of provisions and contingent liabilities of USD 427m related to the resolution of a legacy Credit Suisse cross-border matter and a net deferred tax benefit of USD 577m. Return on CET1 capital was 13.5%, or 15.3% on an underlying basis. Reported revenues were USD 12,112m, up 2% YoY. On an underlying basis, revenues increased by 4% to USD 11,546m. Underlying revenues from our core businesses increased 8%, reflecting the strength, scale and geographic diversification of our franchises and our ability to drive synergies across the Group. Underlying revenues in Non-core and Legacy division declined by USD 484m from 2Q24, mainly reflecting lower net gains on position exits as we significantly reduced NCL's portfolio through successful de-risking actions over the last year. Reported Group operating expenses decreased by 6% YoY to USD 9,756m. On an underlying basis, operating expenses decreased by 3% to USD 8,701m as we continued to execute on our integration and efficiency plans at pace. For the first half of 2025, we reported PBT of USD 4,325m and underlying PBT of USD 5,269m, driven by a 2% increase in underlying revenues and a 2% decline in underlying expenses. Net profit increased to USD 4,087m, with RoCET1 of 11.6% and underlying RoCET1 of 13.3%. Continued client momentum During the second quarter, clients continued to rely on UBS, valuing the breadth of our advice and global capabilities amid a challenging and unpredictable geopolitical and market environment. Group invested assets reached USD 6.6trn, up 8% QoQ driven by increases across Global Wealth Management, Asset Management and Personal & Corporate Banking. In GWM net new assets reached USD 23bn with strong generation in APAC, EMEA and Switzerland and robust performance in the Americas, where high inflows from existing clients mostly offset outflows from seasonal tax-related payments. Transactional activity during the quarter remained robust despite more muted sentiment among private clients, while institutional clients remained very active. In GWM, transaction-based income increased by 12% YoY with positive momentum across all regions. In the Investment Bank, Global Markets delivered a record second quarter with revenues of USD 2.3bn, up 25% YoY, tracking the exceptional levels of volatility early in the quarter. Higher revenues in Equities and FX once again reflect our ability to serve clients in a dynamic market environment, capturing growth opportunities in the areas of our strategic focus. Reliable partner for the Swiss economy Businesses and households in Switzerland benefit from our global reach, advice and expertise. Our balance sheet for all seasons gives them the stability they need while allowing us to remain a leading provider of credit to the economy. We have granted or renewed around CHF 40bn of loans during the quarter. Our conservative approach to risk and highly robust business model is reflected in the Group's loan-to-deposit ratio of 81% and cost of risk of only 10bps. Integration on track with strong progress on client account migrations in Switzerland We progressed our integration plans at pace during the quarter. We have now completed the migration of Credit Suisse client accounts booked outside of Switzerland to the UBS platform and executed the first main wave of migrations in Switzerland, having now transferred approximately one-third of targeted client accounts. We remain on track to complete the Swiss booking center migrations by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, we have made substantial progress on the simplification of our legal entity structure in the US and Europe in the quarter. Delivering on cost savings plans Through disciplined execution of our cost-reduction work we delivered an additional USD 0.7bn in gross cost saves in the quarter by further downsizing Non-core and Legacy's expense base and realizing cost synergies in the core businesses. To date we have decommissioned around 700 applications, or 56% of NCL's initial stack. We have already achieved 70% of our plan and are well on track to deliver around USD 13bn in Group-wide annualized exit rate gross cost savings by end-2026. As in previous quarters, we continued to exit positions in NCL leading to a USD 1.5bn RWA reduction in 2Q25 and bringing RWA to USD 32.7bn at the end of June. With 83% of its initial books closed, NCL remains on track to achieve its ambition to close over 95% of them by end-2026 and reduce RWA below USD 22bn. Maintained strong capital position In the second quarter, we maintained a strong capital position with a CET1 capital ratio of 14.4% and a CET1 leverage ratio of 4.4%. Both are in excess of our guidance of ~14% and >4.0%, respectively, and provide a solid capital buffer to requirements during the integration, while allowing us to self-fund strategic investments and return capital to shareholders. Commitment to capital returns In the second quarter, we continued to accrue for a double-digit increase in the ordinary dividend per share, to be paid out in 2026 and completed USD 0.5bn in share repurchases. In the first half of 2025 we have completed USD 1bn in share repurchases and plan to complete repurchase of up to USD 2bn in the second half of 2025. This plan continues to be subject to UBS maintaining a CET1 capital ratio target of around 14% and achieving its financial targets and is consistent with UBS's previously communicated plans and conservative approach. We will communicate on our 2026 capital returns ambitions with our fourth quarter and full-year financial results for 2025. Investing for long-term growth We remain focused on strengthening our global capabilities by investing into our businesses and technology to capture long-term growth opportunities. We are also well underway on our technology integration journey in 2025, reducing complexity and costs through infrastructure and application decommissioning. With 1,154 apps decommissioned to date, or ~40% of total in scope, we have surpassed the 1,000 business applications decommissioned milestone. We have also turned off over half of the servers in scope (60,000) and worked through 28PB of data. We are unlocking the transformational potential of Gen AI. In the second quarter, we have further rolled out AI-powered tools to employees, including coding tools for our developers to enable faster, more secure and scalable delivery of solutions with a targeted 15% efficiency gain. After finishing the implementation of 55,000 M365 Copilot licenses earlier this year we are planning to roll-out additional licenses to ensure all of our employees across the firm have access to the tool. Additionally, our in-house AI assistant, Red, which gives users intelligent access to UBS products, research, and CIO reports, is currently rolled out to 52,000 employees with general availability planned for the first half of 2026. Our investments in this space continue to translate into increased usage of Gen AI tools across the organization with 8m prompts across all our tools in the quarter, a four-fold increase since year-end 2024. We are also progressing on the execution of our large-scale, transformational AI initiatives designed to have firm-wide impact and strengthen our foundations, enhancing client service and increasing productivity across the Group. In addition, we are continually assessing and building further opportunities with over 280 AI use cases now live, up ~10% from 1Q25. To support in the adoption of our AI capabilities and foster a culture of continuous learning across the organization, we are building a strong ecosystem across the firm including over 500 AI Champions and 100 AI Ambassadors. Later this year around 250 of our senior leaders, including the Group Executive Board, will participate in an AI Senior Leadership Journey at the Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. The program will focus on building an AI-enabled organization, driving transformation, and ensuring ethical governance. This initiative is designed to equip our leaders with the strategic insights needed to further embed AI across the firm and lead the development of an AI-enabled workforce. Outlook The third quarter started with strong market performance in risk assets, particularly international equities, combined with a weak US dollar. Investor sentiment remains broadly constructive, tempered by persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. Against this backdrop, our client conversations and deal pipelines indicate a high level of readiness among investors and corporates to deploy capital, as conviction around the macro outlook strengthens. For the third quarter, we expect Global Wealth Management's net interest income (NII) and Personal & Corporate Banking's NII in Swiss francs to be broadly stable. In US dollar terms, this translates to a sequential low single-digit percentage increase. We also expect trading and transactional activity to reflect more normalized seasonal patterns and activity levels compared to the same quarter a year ago, particularly in Global Wealth Management's transaction-based revenues and the Investment Bank's Global Markets performance. Pull-to-par revenues 3 are expected to be around USD 0.4bn, partly mitigating the expected USD 1.1bn in integration-related expenses. We remain focused on actively engaging with our clients, helping them to navigate a complex environment while executing on our growth and integration plans. We are confident in our ability to deliver on our 2025 and 2026 financial targets, leveraging the power of our diversified business model. 3 Pull-to-par revenues are revenues recognized when fair value reductions taken on financial instruments acquired as part of the Credit Suisse transaction through the required purchase price allocation (PPA) unwind as the instruments approach their maturity. Expand Second quarter 2025 performance overview – Group Group PBT USD 2,193m, underlying PBT USD 2,683m PBT of USD 2,193m included PPA effects and other integration items of USD 596m, a loss related to an investment in an associate of USD 31m, and integration-related expenses and PPA effects of USD 1,055m. Underlying PBT was USD 2,683m, including net credit loss expenses of USD 163m. The cost/income ratio was 80.5%, and 75.4% on an underlying basis. Net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 2,395m, with diluted earnings per share of USD 0.72. Return on CET1 capital was 13.5%, and 15.3% on an underlying basis. Global Wealth Management (GWM) PBT USD 1,204m, underlying PBT USD 1,443m Total revenues increased by USD 247m, or 4%, to USD 6,300m, largely driven by higher recurring net fee income and transaction-based income, partly offset by lower net interest income, and included a USD 80m decrease in PPA effects and other integration items. Excluding USD 153m of PPA effects and other integration items and a USD 8m loss related to an investment in an associate, underlying total revenues were USD 6,156m, an increase of 6%. Net credit loss expenses were USD 3m, compared with net credit loss releases of USD 1m in the second quarter of 2024. Operating expenses decreased by USD 90m, or 2%, to USD 5,093m and included a USD 140m decrease in integration-related expenses. Excluding USD 383m of integration-related expenses and PPA effects, underlying operating expenses were USD 4,710m, an increase of 1%, mainly driven by unfavorable foreign currency effects and higher financial advisor compensation reflecting an increase in compensable revenues. The cost/income ratio was 80.8%, and 76.5% on an underlying basis. Invested assets increased sequentially by USD 294bn to USD 4,512bn. Net new assets were USD 23bn. Personal & Corporate Banking (P&C) PBT CHF 566m, underlying PBT CHF 557m Total revenues decreased by CHF 161m, or 8%, to CHF 1,900m, mainly due to lower net interest income and other income, and included a CHF 1m decrease in PPA effects and other integration items. Total revenues in the second quarter of 2025 also included a loss of CHF 18m related to an investment in an associate. Excluding CHF 222m of PPA effects and other integration items and the aforementioned loss, underlying total revenues were CHF 1,696m, a decrease of 8%. Net credit loss expenses were CHF 91m and mainly reflected net expenses on credit-impaired positions. Net credit loss expenses in the prior-year quarter were CHF 92m. Operating expenses decreased by CHF 23m, or 2%, to CHF 1,243m and included a CHF 30m increase in integration-related expenses. Excluding CHF 195m of integration-related expenses and PPA effects, underlying operating expenses were CHF 1,048m, a decrease of 5%, mainly driven by lower personnel expenses, including lower variable compensation. The cost/income ratio was 65.4%, and 61.8% on an underlying basis. Asset Management (AM) PBT USD 153m, underlying PBT USD 216m Total revenues increased by USD 4m to USD 772m, reflecting increases in net management fees and performance fees, largely offset by the second quarter of 2024 including USD 28m of net gains from disposals. Operating expenses decreased by USD 20m, or 3%, to USD 618m and included a USD 35m decrease in integration-related expenses. Excluding integration-related expenses of USD 63m, underlying operating expenses were USD 555m, an increase of 3%, mainly due to unfavorable foreign currency effects. The cost/income ratio was 80.1%, and 72.0% on an underlying basis. Invested assets increased sequentially by USD 156bn to USD 1,952bn. Net new money was negative USD 2bn, and negative USD 5bn excluding money market flows and associates. Investment Bank (IB) PBT USD 557m, underlying PBT USD 526m Total revenues increased by USD 163m, or 6%, to USD 2,966m, due to higher revenues in Global Markets, partly offset by lower revenues in Global Banking, and included an overall USD 158m decrease in PPA effects. Excluding these effects, underlying total revenues were USD 2,815m, an increase of 13%, including positive foreign currency effects. Net credit loss expenses were USD 48m, compared with net credit loss releases of USD 6m in the second quarter of 2024. Operating expenses increased by USD 29m, or 1%, to USD 2,361m, and included a USD 124m decrease in integration-related expenses. Excluding integration-related expenses of USD 121m, underlying operating expenses were USD 2,241m, an increase of 7%, mainly due to higher personnel expenses and unfavorable foreign currency effects. The cost/income ratio was 79.6% on a reported and underlying basis. Return on attributed equity was 12.2%, and 11.5% on an underlying basis. Non-core and Legacy (NCL) PBT USD (250m), underlying PBT USD 1m Total revenues were negative USD 82m, compared with total revenues of USD 401m, mainly reflecting lower net gains from position exits and lower net interest income from securitized products and credit products, partly offset by lower liquidity and funding costs, as a result of a smaller portfolio. Net credit loss releases were USD 2m, compared with net credit loss releases of USD 1m in the second quarter of 2024. Operating expenses were USD 170m, a decrease of USD 637m, or 79%, mainly due to releases in provisions for litigation, regulatory and similar matters, as well as lower personnel expenses, risk management costs, technology costs and compliance and regulatory costs, and included a USD 73m decrease in integration-related expenses. Excluding integration-related expenses of USD 252m, underlying operating expenses were negative USD 83m. Group Items PBT USD (167m), underlying PBT USD (188m) 4 Also accounts for credit loss expenses/releases incurred in a given period. Expand UBS's sustainability and impact highlights We support our clients in the transition to a low-carbon world and consider climate change risks and opportunities across our firm for the benefit of our clients, our shareholders and all our stakeholders. SDG Outcomes Fund hits USD 100m target with anchor commitment from the EU Earlier this month, the UBS Optimus Foundation and Bridges Outcomes Partnerships announced the successful final closing of the SDG Outcomes Fund at the 4th UN International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4) in Seville. Through the new anchor commitment from the European Union, the fund reached its subscription target of USD 100m. This Luxembourg-based SFDR Article 9 fund is a pioneering blended finance initiative designed to accelerate progress toward the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by supporting outcomes-focused programs in low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Africa and Asia. Expanded UBS Optimus Foundation offering in the US In June, we announced the expansion of the UBS Optimus Foundation offering in the US. The Foundation, a client-facing giving platform that supports clients' philanthropic goals through flexible, tax-advantaged giving solutions now provides access to an expanded portfolio of programs across the US in addition to the full portfolio of existing global programs. Clients can support a suite of national-scale programs, sourced and vetted by a team of dedicated philanthropy experts, that advance solutions across education, health, the environment, and emergency response and resilience. The UBS Optimus Foundation continues to expand its US portfolio and now has 15 nonprofit partners on the front lines of the country's most pressing challenges. UBS covers all the administrative costs of the Foundation, ensuring that 100% of each donation received supports the Foundation's programs and mission. UBS will also provide up to a 10% match on client and employee donations to incentivize giving and magnify its impact (subject to availability). Employer of choice among Swiss business students According to Universum's 2025 survey published in June, UBS is the employer of choice among business students in Switzerland. We were the top choice for one in four business students – and for the first time ever, we came first among female business students too. Selected financial information of the business divisions and Group Items Total revenues as reported 6,300 2,336 772 2,966 (82) (180) 12,112 of which: PPA effects and other integration items 1 153 274 152 1 17 596 of which: loss related to an investment in an associate (8) (23) (31) Total revenues (underlying) 6,156 2,085 772 2,815 (83) (198) 11,546 Credit loss expense / (release) 3 114 0 48 (2) 0 163 Operating expenses as reported 5,093 1,528 618 2,361 170 (13) 9,756 of which: integration-related expenses and PPA effects 2 383 240 63 121 252 (4) 1,055 Operating expenses (underlying) 4,710 1,288 555 2,241 (83) (10) 8,701 Operating profit / (loss) before tax as reported 1,204 695 153 557 (250) (167) 2,193 Operating profit / (loss) before tax (underlying) 1,443 684 216 526 1 (188) 2,683 For the quarter ended 31.3.25 USD m Global Wealth Management Personal & Corporate Banking Asset Management Investment Bank Non-core and Legacy Group Items Total Total revenues as reported 6,422 2,211 741 3,183 284 (284) 12,557 of which: PPA effects and other integration items 1 165 241 138 30 574 of which: gain related to an investment in an associate 4 11 14 of which: items related to the Swisscard transactions 3 64 64 Total revenues (underlying) 6,253 1,895 741 3,045 284 (314) 11,904 Credit loss expense / (release) 6 53 0 35 7 (1) 100 Operating expenses as reported 5,057 1,551 606 2,427 669 15 10,324 of which: integration-related expenses and PPA effects 2 355 192 73 112 191 3 927 of which: items related to the Swisscard transactions 4 180 180 Operating expenses (underlying) 4,702 1,179 533 2,314 477 12 9,218 Operating profit / (loss) before tax as reported 1,359 607 135 722 (391) (299) 2,132 Operating profit / (loss) before tax (underlying) 1,545 663 208 696 (200) (326) 2,586 For the quarter ended 30.6.24 USD m Global Wealth Management Personal & Corporate Banking Asset Management Investment Bank Non-core and Legacy Group Items Total Total revenues as reported 6,053 2,272 768 2,803 401 (392) 11,904 of which: PPA effects and other integration items 1 233 246 310 (8) 780 Total revenues (underlying) 5,820 2,026 768 2,493 401 (384) 11,124 Credit loss expense / (release) (1) 103 0 (6) (1) 0 95 Operating expenses as reported 5,183 1,396 638 2,332 807 (15) 10,340 of which: integration-related expenses and PPA effects 2 523 182 98 245 325 (2) 1,372 Operating expenses (underlying) 4,660 1,213 540 2,087 481 (13) 8,969 Operating profit / (loss) before tax as reported 871 773 130 477 (405) (377) 1,469 Operating profit / (loss) before tax (underlying) 1,161 710 228 412 (80) (371) 2,060 1 Includes accretion of PPA adjustments on financial instruments and other PPA effects, as well as temporary and incremental items directly related to the integration. 2 Includes temporary, incremental operating expenses directly related to the integration, as well as amortization of intangibles resulting from the acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group. 3 Represents the gain related to UBS's share of income recorded by Swisscard for the sale of the Credit Suisse card portfolios to UBS. 4 Represents the expense related to the payment to Swisscard for the sale of the Credit Suisse card portfolios to UBS. Expand Selected financial information of the business divisions and Group Items (continued) Year-to-date 30.6.25 Total revenues as reported 12,722 4,547 1,513 6,149 202 (465) 24,668 of which: PPA effects and other integration items 1 318 514 290 1 47 1,170 of which: gain / (loss) related to an investment in an associate (5) (12) (16) of which: items related to the Swisscard transactions 2 64 64 Total revenues (underlying) 12,408 3,980 1,513 5,860 201 (512) 23,450 Credit loss expense / (release) 9 167 0 83 6 (1) 263 Operating expenses as reported 10,150 3,078 1,224 4,788 838 2 20,080 of which: integration-related expenses and PPA effects 3 739 432 135 233 444 (1) 1,982 of which: items related to the Swisscard transactions 4 180 180 Operating expenses (underlying) 9,411 2,467 1,088 4,555 395 2 17,918 Operating profit / (loss) before tax as reported 2,563 1,302 289 1,279 (642) (465) 4,325 Operating profit / (loss) before tax (underlying) 2,988 1,347 424 1,222 (199) (513) 5,269 Year-to-date 30.6.24 USD m Global Wealth Management Personal & Corporate Banking Asset Management Investment Bank Non-core and Legacy Group Items Total Total revenues as reported 12,196 4,695 1,543 5,554 1,402 (747) 24,642 of which: PPA effects and other integration items 1 467 502 603 (12) 1,559 Total revenues (underlying) 11,729 4,193 1,543 4,951 1,402 (735) 23,083 Credit loss expense / (release) (4) 146 0 26 35 (2) 201 Operating expenses as reported 10,228 2,800 1,303 4,496 1,818 (48) 20,597 of which: integration-related expenses and PPA effects 3 928 342 169 387 568 (1) 2,392 Operating expenses (underlying) 9,300 2,458 1,134 4,109 1,250 (47) 18,205 Operating profit / (loss) before tax as reported 1,972 1,748 241 1,032 (451) (698) 3,844 Operating profit / (loss) before tax (underlying) 2,433 1,588 410 816 117 (687) 4,677 1 Includes accretion of PPA adjustments on financial instruments and other PPA effects, as well as temporary and incremental items directly related to the integration. 2 Represents the gain related to UBS's share of income recorded by Swisscard for the sale of the Credit Suisse card portfolios to UBS. 3 Includes temporary, incremental operating expenses directly related to the integration, as well as amortization of intangibles resulting from the acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group. 4 Represents the expense related to the payment to Swisscard for the sale of the Credit Suisse card portfolios to UBS. Expand Our key figures As of or for the quarter ended As of or year-to-date USD m, except where indicated 30.6.25 31.3.25 31.12.24 30.6.24 30.6.25 30.6.24 Group results Total revenues 12,112 12,557 11,635 11,904 24,668 24,642 Credit loss expense / (release) 163 100 229 95 263 201 Operating expenses 9,756 10,324 10,359 10,340 20,080 20,597 Operating profit / (loss) before tax 2,193 2,132 1,047 1,469 4,325 3,844 Net profit / (loss) attributable to shareholders 2,395 1,692 770 1,136 4,087 2,890 Diluted earnings per share (USD) 1 0.72 0.51 0.23 0.34 1.23 0.86 Profitability and growth 2,3 Return on equity (%) 10.9 7.9 3.6 5.4 9.4 6.8 Return on tangible equity (%) 11.8 8.5 3.9 5.9 10.2 7.5 Underlying return on tangible equity (%) 4 13.4 10.0 6.6 8.4 11.7 9.2 Return on common equity tier 1 capital (%) 13.5 9.6 4.2 5.9 11.6 7.5 Underlying return on common equity tier 1 capital (%) 4 15.3 11.3 7.2 8.4 13.3 9.2 Revenues over leverage ratio denominator, gross (%) 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 Cost / income ratio (%) 80.5 82.2 89.0 86.9 81.4 83.6 Underlying cost / income ratio (%) 4 75.4 77.4 81.9 80.6 76.4 78.9 Effective tax rate (%) (9.5) 20.2 25.6 20.0 5.1 23.6 Net profit growth (%) 110.9 (3.6) n.m. (95.8) 41.4 (89.8) Resources 2 Total assets 1,669,991 1,543,363 1,565,028 1,560,976 1,669,991 1,560,976 Equity attributable to shareholders 89,277 87,185 85,079 83,683 89,277 83,683 Common equity tier 1 capital 5 72,709 69,152 71,367 76,104 72,709 76,104 Risk-weighted assets 5 504,500 483,276 498,538 511,376 504,500 511,376 Common equity tier 1 capital ratio (%) 5 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.9 14.4 14.9 Going concern capital ratio (%) 5 18.2 18.2 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.0 Total loss-absorbing capacity ratio (%) 5 37.9 38.7 37.2 38.7 37.9 38.7 Leverage ratio denominator 5 1,658,089 1,561,583 1,519,477 1,564,201 1,658,089 1,564,201 Common equity tier 1 leverage ratio (%) 5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.9 Liquidity coverage ratio (%) 6 182.3 181.0 188.4 212.0 182.3 212.0 Net stable funding ratio (%) 122.4 124.2 125.5 128.0 122.4 128.0 Other Invested assets (USD bn) 3,7 6,618 6,153 6,087 5,873 6,618 5,873 Personnel (full-time equivalents) 105,132 106,789 108,648 109,991 105,132 109,991 Market capitalization 1,8 113,036 105,173 105,719 101,903 113,036 101,903 Total book value per share (USD) 1 28.17 27.35 26.80 26.13 28.17 26.13 Tangible book value per share (USD) 1 25.95 25.18 24.63 23.85 25.95 23.85 Credit-impaired lending assets as a percentage of total lending assets, gross (%) 3 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Cost of credit risk (bps) 3 10 7 15 6 8 6 1 Refer to the 'Share information and earnings per share' section of the UBS Group second quarter 2025 report, available under 'Quarterly reporting' at for more information. 2 Refer to the 'Targets, capital guidance and ambitions' section of the UBS Group Annual Report 2024, available under 'Annual reporting' at and to the 'Recent development' section of the UBS Group second quarter 2025 report, available under 'Quarterly reporting' at for more information about our performance targets. 3 Refer to 'Alternative performance measures' in the appendix to the UBS Group second quarter 2025 report, available under 'Quarterly reporting' at for the relevant definition(s) and calculation method(s). 4 Refer to the 'Group performance' section of the UBS Group second quarter 2025 report, available under 'Quarterly reporting' at for more information about underlying results. 5 Based on the Swiss systemically relevant bank framework. Refer to the 'Capital management' section of the UBS Group second quarter 2025 report, available under 'Quarterly reporting' at for more information. 6 The disclosed ratios represent quarterly averages for the quarters presented and are calculated based on an average of 61 data points in the second quarter of 2025, 62 data points in the first quarter of 2025, 64 data points in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 61 data points in the second quarter of 2024. Refer to the 'Liquidity and funding management' section of the UBS Group second quarter 2025 report, available under 'Quarterly reporting' at for more information. 7 Consists of invested assets for Global Wealth Management, Asset Management (including invested assets from associates) and Personal & Corporate Banking. Refer to 'Note 31 Invested assets and net new money' in the 'Consolidated financial statements' section of the UBS Group Annual Report 2024, available under 'Annual reporting' at for more information. 8 The calculation of market capitalization reflects total shares issued multiplied by the share price at the end of the period. Expand Information about results materials and the earnings call UBS's second quarter 2025 report, news release and slide presentation are available from 06:45 CEST on Wednesday, 30 July 2025, at UBS will hold a presentation of its second quarter 2025 results on Wednesday, 30 July 2025. The results will be presented by Sergio P. Ermotti (Group Chief Executive Officer), Todd Tuckner (Group Chief Financial Officer) and Sarah Mackey (Head of Investor Relations). Time 09:00 CEST 08:00 BST 03:00 US EDT Audio webcast The presentation for analysts can be followed live on with a simultaneous slide show. Webcast playback An audio playback of the results presentation will be made available at later in the day. Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements This news release contains statements that constitute 'forward-looking statements', including but not limited to management's outlook for UBS's financial performance, statements relating to the anticipated effect of transactions and strategic initiatives on UBS's business and future development and goals or intentions to achieve climate, sustainability and other social objectives. While these forward-looking statements represent UBS's judgments, expectations and objectives concerning the matters described, a number of risks, uncertainties and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from UBS's expectations. In particular, the global economy may suffer significant adverse effects from increasing political tensions between world powers, changes to international trade policies, including those related to tariffs and trade barriers, and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, as well as the continuing Russia–Ukraine war. UBS's acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group has materially changed its outlook and strategic direction and introduced new operational challenges. The integration of the Credit Suisse entities into the UBS structure is expected to continue through 2026 and presents significant operational and execution risk, including the risks that UBS may be unable to achieve the cost reductions and business benefits contemplated by the transaction, that it may incur higher costs to execute the integration of Credit Suisse and that the acquired business may have greater risks or liabilities than expected. Following the failure of Credit Suisse, Switzerland is considering significant changes to its capital, resolution and regulatory regime, which, if adopted, would significantly increase our capital requirements or impose other costs on UBS. These factors create greater uncertainty about forward-looking statements. Other factors that may affect UBS's performance and ability to achieve its plans, outlook and other objectives also include, but are not limited to: (i) the degree to which UBS is successful in the execution of its strategic plans, including its cost reduction and efficiency initiatives and its ability to manage its levels of risk-weighted assets (RWA) and leverage ratio denominator (LRD), liquidity coverage ratio and other financial resources, including changes in RWA assets and liabilities arising from higher market volatility and the size of the combined Group; (ii) the degree to which UBS is successful in implementing changes to its businesses to meet changing market, regulatory and other conditions; (iii) inflation and interest rate volatility in major markets; (iv) developments in the macroeconomic climate and in the markets in which UBS operates or to which it is exposed, including movements in securities prices or liquidity, credit spreads, currency exchange rates, residential and commercial real estate markets, general economic conditions, and changes to national trade policies on the financial position or creditworthiness of UBS's clients and counterparties, as well as on client sentiment and levels of activity; (v) changes in the availability of capital and funding, including any adverse changes in UBS's credit spreads and credit ratings of UBS, as well as availability and cost of funding to meet requirements for debt eligible for total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC); (vi) changes in central bank policies or the implementation of financial legislation and regulation in Switzerland, the US, the UK, the EU and other financial centers that have imposed, or resulted in, or may do so in the future, more stringent or entity-specific capital, TLAC, leverage ratio, net stable funding ratio, liquidity and funding requirements, heightened operational resilience requirements, incremental tax requirements, additional levies, limitations on permitted activities, constraints on remuneration, constraints on transfers of capital and liquidity and sharing of operational costs across the Group or other measures, and the effect these will or would have on UBS's business activities; (vii) UBS's ability to successfully implement resolvability and related regulatory requirements and the potential need to make further changes to the legal structure or booking model of UBS in response to legal and regulatory requirements including heightened requirements and expectations due to its acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group; (viii) UBS's ability to maintain and improve its systems and controls for complying with sanctions in a timely manner and for the detection and prevention of money laundering to meet evolving regulatory requirements and expectations, in particular in the current geopolitical turmoil; (ix) the uncertainty arising from domestic stresses in certain major economies; (x) changes in UBS's competitive position, including whether differences in regulatory capital and other requirements among the major financial centers adversely affect UBS's ability to compete in certain lines of business; (xi) changes in the standards of conduct applicable to its businesses that may result from new regulations or new enforcement of existing standards, including measures to impose new and enhanced duties when interacting with customers and in the execution and handling of customer transactions; (xii) the liability to which UBS may be exposed, or possible constraints or sanctions that regulatory authorities might impose on UBS, due to litigation, contractual claims and regulatory investigations, including the potential for disqualification from certain businesses, potentially large fines or monetary penalties, or the loss of licenses or privileges as a result of regulatory or other governmental sanctions, as well as the effect that litigation, regulatory and similar matters have on the operational risk component of its RWA; (xiii) UBS's ability to retain and attract the employees necessary to generate revenues and to manage, support and control its businesses, which may be affected by competitive factors; (xiv) changes in accounting or tax standards or policies, and determinations or interpretations affecting the recognition of gain or loss, the valuation of goodwill, the recognition of deferred tax assets and other matters; (xv) UBS's ability to implement new technologies and business methods, including digital services, artificial intelligence and other technologies, and ability to successfully compete with both existing and new financial service providers, some of which may not be regulated to the same extent; (xvi) limitations on the effectiveness of UBS's internal processes for risk management, risk control, measurement and modeling, and of financial models generally; (xvii) the occurrence of operational failures, such as fraud, misconduct, unauthorized trading, financial crime, cyberattacks, data leakage and systems failures, the risk of which is increased with persistently high levels of cyberattack threats; (xviii) restrictions on the ability of UBS Group AG, UBS AG and regulated subsidiaries of UBS AG to make payments or distributions, including due to restrictions on the ability of its subsidiaries to make loans or distributions, directly or indirectly, or, in the case of financial difficulties, due to the exercise by FINMA or the regulators of UBS's operations in other countries of their broad statutory powers in relation to protective measures, restructuring and liquidation proceedings; (xix) the degree to which changes in regulation, capital or legal structure, financial results or other factors may affect UBS's ability to maintain its stated capital return objective; (xx) uncertainty over the scope of actions that may be required by UBS, governments and others for UBS to achieve goals relating to climate, environmental and social matters, as well as the evolving nature of underlying science and industry and the increasing divergence among regulatory regimes; (xxi) the ability of UBS to access capital markets; (xxii) the ability of UBS to successfully recover from a disaster or other business continuity problem due to a hurricane, flood, earthquake, terrorist attack, war, conflict, pandemic, security breach, cyberattack, power loss, telecommunications failure or other natural or man-made event; and (xxiii) the effect that these or other factors or unanticipated events, including media reports and speculations, may have on its reputation and the additional consequences that this may have on its business and performance. The sequence in which the factors above are presented is not indicative of their likelihood of occurrence or the potential magnitude of their consequences. UBS's business and financial performance could be affected by other factors identified in its past and future filings and reports, including those filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC). More detailed information about those factors is set forth in documents furnished by UBS and filings made by UBS with the SEC, including the UBS Group AG and UBS AG Annual Reports on Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2024. UBS is not under any obligation to (and expressly disclaims any obligation to) update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Rounding Numbers presented throughout this news release may not add up precisely to the totals provided in the tables and text. Percentages and percent changes disclosed in text and tables are calculated on the basis of unrounded figures. Absolute changes between reporting periods disclosed in the text, which can be derived from numbers presented in related tables, are calculated on a rounded basis. Tables Within tables, blank fields generally indicate non-applicability or that presentation of any content would not be meaningful, or that information is not available as of the relevant date or for the relevant period. Zero values generally indicate that the respective figure is zero on an actual or rounded basis. Values that are zero on a rounded basis can be either negative or positive on an actual basis. Websites In this news release, any website addresses are provided solely for information and are not intended to be active links. UBS is not incorporating the contents of any such websites into this news release.
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Samsung's Big Tesla Order Fuels Recovery Bets Despite Chip Woes
(Bloomberg) — Samsung Electronics Co.'s ( surprise $16.5 billion chipmaking deal with Tesla Inc (TSLA). has breathed new life into a foundry business all but written off by many investors. The World's Data Center Capital Has Residents Surrounded An Abandoned Art-Deco Landmark in Buffalo Awaits Revival Budapest's Most Historic Site Gets a Controversial Rebuild San Francisco in Talks With Vanderbilt for Downtown Campus Boston's Dumpsters Overflow as Trash-Strike Summer Drags On Its stock has risen 9% since news about the agreement on Monday, bringing Samsung's gains in July to over 20% and putting the stock on track for its best month in more than four years. Samsung accounted for more than half of July's gains in Korea's stock benchmark Kospi, underscoring growing investor enthusiasm. The Tesla deal is significant as it marks a shift for the ailing foundry business — from relying on captive internal orders to deeper external engagements, Citigroup analysts said in a report. A successful implementation would boost Samsung's prospects for generating more external clients and validate its investment in a US plant. 'I think market basically paid not even zero value — negative value — on foundry business so far, and suddenly market checked and said 'Okay! they still can do',' said Young Jae Lee, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management Ltd., who has Samsung as the biggest position in his $831 million fund. Once considered a serious challenger to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung has steadily ceded ground in the global chip race. The company, which supplies its own memory chips and produces semiconductors for clients, has struggled to fill its foundry capacity as major customers such as Apple Inc. exited and its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) business has gone woefully off track. The order announcement comes more than a year after Samsung replaced the head of its semiconductor business with seasoned memory expert Jun Young-hyun in a bid to restore the company's technological edge. Under Jun's leadership, Samsung replaced the head of the foundry business with Han Jin-man, a highly regarded executive at its chip division in the US and recruited Margaret Han, a former Intel Corp. and TSMC executive, to lead Samsung's US foundry business. The deal also secures long-term utilization of its facility in Taylor, Texas, which has suffered from construction delays. Samsung is expanding production there with support from the 2022 Chips and Science Act, Washington's effort to rebuild the American semiconductor industry with billions in subsidies and tax incentives for the likes of Intel. Morgan Stanley analysts Shawn Kim and Michelle Kim estimate the partnership with Tesla could add more than $50 billion to Samsung's market value. 'Tesla's AI6 chip announcement validates Samsung's advanced nodes at its US fab, an endorsement that stands out amid Intel's well publicized struggles with domestic manufacturing,' said Gary Tan, portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments in Singapore. There's still caution about calling the Tesla tie-up the start of a meaningful turnaround, but it gives ground for greater optimism around South Korea's largest company. 'Samsung now has the narrative tailwinds and the cash flow support to justify more constructive positioning, but it still needs to prove execution in AI chips beyond just this Tesla headline,' said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital, a Chicago-based firm. 'I'd expect some consolidation until earnings prove that this is more than just a headline trade.' Some analysts say the company's other problems are likely to remain. For the first time in April, homegrown rival SK Hynix Inc. overtook Samsung as the world's biggest producer of DRAM chips. Samsung has also struggled to secure approval from Nvidia Corp. for its latest HBM offerings. But Tan said Nvidia's latest line of AI chips 'presents Samsung with an opportunity to regain momentum in advanced memory.' Despite the slow pace of development, JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a July 8 note said it has noticed growing interest from investors on 'Samsung's comeback in the high-bandwidth memory market.' The company is expected to give more details on the Tesla deal and the outlook for the second half of the year on Thursday when it reports its full second-quarter earnings. It said earlier this month its preliminary operating profit fell by a sharper-than-expected 56% on inventory writedowns that followed the US curbs on Chinese-bound AI chips. Investors will also be keen to get details on whether Samsung would be able to benefit from Nvidia's resumption of sales of its H20 AI chips to China. The Korean memory maker has provided HBM3 to pair with H20 chips in the past. The stock is in a better position than last year, when company management issued a rare public apology for disappointing results. But despite the fanfare, analysts warn the rally may be overextended in the short term. Technical indicators show Samsung shares are trading at overheated levels, and consensus targets imply the smallest 12-month upside in more than four years. —With assistance from Yoolim Lee and Vlad Savov. Burning Man Is Burning Through Cash It's Not Just Tokyo and Kyoto: Tourists Descend on Rural Japan Everyone Loves to Hate Wind Power. Scotland Found a Way to Make It Pay Off Cage-Free Eggs Are Booming in the US, Despite Cost and Trump's Efforts Elon Musk's Empire Is Creaking Under the Strain of Elon Musk ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
CNN
35 minutes ago
- CNN
Analysis: Trump bludgeoned the EU on trade. Good luck doing the same to China
President Donald Trump isn't going to bulldoze China on trade like he did Europe. Two days after the EU agreed to a framework trade deal with the White House that some of the bloc's national leaders regard as a capitulation, Trump's negotiators left talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping's team in Sweden with no breakthrough. Following a flurry of trade deal announcements celebrated by the administration, China and the US are expected to carry on talking. But the lack of significant progress was a blunt reminder of China's power, the stakes it sees in standing up to Trump and how efforts to remake global trade will be incomplete without a deal with Beijing. Instead of another win, Trump's negotiators on Wednesday will present him with a proposal to extend a pause on historic mutual tariff hikes, which would otherwise hit on August 12. The president has a choice: either approve more time for more talks, which would suit Beijing, or revive a disastrous superpower trade war. It's hardly a choice at all. 'We're just going to give him the facts, and then he will decide,' Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who along with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer led the US delegation in Stockholm, told CNBC Tuesday. No one is denying Trump's on a roll with trade. He can justifiably claim significant political victories with a series of framework deals with the EU, the UK, Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines that favor the United States by imposing one-sided tariffs. Trump's bet that other nations and trading blocs would have no option but to, in his words, pay more for access to the mighty American market has paid off. And, in his trade deals, he successfully opened up some previously closed markets to American manufacturers. Trump has long regarded Europeans as freeloading off American power. He's made good on his promise to substantially reinvent the transatlantic relationship, securing a 15% tariff on the EU's exports while forcing NATO members to agree to steep increases in defense spending by 2035. His hunch that allies are so beholden to the US on security that they'd fold on trade was spot-on. Trump is also flouting the conventional wisdom of most economic experts, and he's fractured the global free trade and low tariff system in imposing some of the highest duties since the 1930s. And so far, the global economic disaster that many predicted has not materialized. Most remarkably, he's acted to impose a personal obsession he's nursed since the 1980s — tariffs. But it may only be halftime. Many of the expected consequences of this new radical US trade policy are yet to kick in, including higher prices for American consumers that could quickly sour voters on the president's approach. Goldman Sachs estimates that it could take up to eight months for price hikes to show up. Other consequences of Trump's trade romp will also take time to become obvious. That's not stopping the administration's triumphalism. 'No one's moved as fast as the world has moved with respect to Donald Trump. He has moved the world in a way that no one can imagine,' Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBNC. 'He's done this in six months; this is amazing.' But China is looming in the path of Trump's victory lap. And the president may have met his match in Xi. He faces none of the constraints that spiked the trade guns of Europe — which was wary of antagonizing Trump and risking its military umbrella and its need for US support on Ukraine. And China's resistance is grounded in economics, sovereignty and politics that are existential for its Communist Party regime. No Chinese leader — especially one like Xi, who built his power on nationalism and restoring what Beijing sees as its rightful dignity and respect — can capitulate to an American president in a trade negotiation. China's centralized political structure, unlike the often-fractious 27-nation EU, also gives it stability. It also has cards to play that can hold the US economy hostage — including its dominance of the production of rare earth elements used in the manufacture of smartphones, smart weapons, satellites and aviation engines. China reacted to Trump's initial declaration of a trade war by blocking the export of the vital elements. It has since reopened the market, but the Trump administration is still complaining that Beijing is taking too long to approve all rare earth applications for US companies. But the fact that rare earths are a Trump card for Xi is not lost on anyone. Decades ago, China's isolated leaders didn't understand US politics. That's no longer the case. And it would not be surprising if they've already concluded that if they stand up to Trump, he'll back down. Calling China's bluff in these circumstances would be a massive gamble. It's not that China wants a trade war or would not be hurt by one. Its economy is plagued by problems. But its authoritarian system means Xi can impose more pain on his people than Trump might risk inflicting on Americans. It was almost alone among global trading powers in ignoring Bessent's admonition not to retaliate after Trump's tariff outburst in April. Bruce Stokes, a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, argued that Trump's desire to visit Beijing later this year for a summit with Xi could also be crucial. 'This is not just about economics. (Trump) wants to be tough on China, I think that's indisputable,' said Stokes. 'But I think he wants even more so to have the opportunity to go mano a mano in Beijing, both for the optics of it and he believes he's a dealmaker who can strike a deal.' Stokes added: 'The Chinese experts I talk to think that the Chinese think that this guy can be manipulated. 'This guy, you can play him, and we'll see what happens.'' Trump's zeal for one-on-one dealmaking is antithetical to the protocol-laden approach of the Chinese. Chinese negotiators seek to shield their leader by ironing out agreements at lower levels. Trump's team seeks to set up theirs for grand photo-ops that fuel his 'Art of the Deal' ego. There's zero chance that Xi would fly to a meeting with Trump and improvise an agreement, then dole out sycophantic praise for his dealmaking as top European official Ursula von der Leyen did at the weekend. Bessent told CNBC that there was extensive 'pregame' planning in Stockholm, starting with 75 Chinese officials, compared with the 15 in the US delegation. Eventually, the teams were whittled down for the nitty gritty involving Bessent, Greer and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. The Treasury chief insisted that the talks had made 'good progress' toward the US position on a 'clunky' Chinese system of controls on rare earth exports. Vice Premier He said that the talks were constructive and that the two sides would continue to push for a 90-day extension of the pause on reciprocal tariffs. But Bessent cautioned that China had jumped the gun on the pause before Trump weighs in. Of course, presidents make the ultimate decision in foreign policy. But this may be mostly optics. Trump needs to be seen as the big guy. But it's also a measure of his chaotic volatility that nothing is for certain unless he signs off. China's imperviousness to Trump's box of trade tricks is not the only reason why administration gloating is premature. Trade agreements are usually complex, running to thousands of pages after exhaustive negotiations between trade lawyers. The superficial framework agreements released by the White House, by contrast, show that nettlesome disputes in deals with EU and other trade competitors are unresolved. Such skimpy agreements could easily fall apart. Trump might also react to foot-dragging on details by lashing out with tariffs. And recriminations boiling within Europe mean it's not certain that the agreement reached on Sunday in Scotland will survive. Trump's business, personal and political life has always existed in a perpetual cycle of postponing reckonings. It's therefore typical that while he's touting his winning streak on trade now, he has no idea what lies ahead. It will take time to judge how the almost-certain rises in consumer prices will impact the economy. And the shock of tariffs will take months to work through supply chains and procurement schedules drawn up years in advance. This explains why Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is loath to slash interest rates despite Trump's fury. Tariffs may not kill economic growth and cause a recession, and businesses may adapt to the new certainty of duties between 15% and 20%. Higher costs could be shared by consumers, companies and suppliers in a way that eases some of the impact on voters ahead of next year's midterm elections. But while historically high, the tariffs probably aren't sufficiently punitive to force companies to undertake the massively expensive process of relocating production to the United States — an ostensible justification for Trump's trade wars. And Trump won't be in the Oval Office forever. CEOs may reason that his successor will likely temper protectionism, especially if the economy slows. Other difficulties also loom. Canada, unlike the EU, seems in no mood to sue for peace after Prime Minister Mark Carney won power on visceral anti-Americanism in the electorate. A prolonged trade conflict would hurt Canadians more than Americans, owing to the relative size of the neighbors' economies. But Carney can make things difficult for Trump. A sudden spurt of inflation early next year, perhaps triggered by the Federal Reserve chief Trump will appoint when Powell's term ends, could also undermine the fragile foundation on which the president's trade wins rest. This all explains why a real deal with China is so important. And Beijing knows it, so it's unlikely to fold.
