Exit poll in Polish presidential run-off puts candidates neck and neck
The poll by Ipsos Poland, released at 9pm local time (8pm BST) on Sunday as polls closed, put Trzaskowski, backed by the current government led by Donald Tusk, on 50.3%, with the rightwing contender Karol Nawrocki on 49.7%. The poll's margin of error was 2%.
Despite the slim margin offered by the poll, Trzaskowski immediately appeared on stage in Warsaw to claim victory. 'We've won!' he announced to cheers from the crowd, before giving a victory speech thanking his family and supporters. In a speech at his own campaign headquarters, Nawrocki did not concede, saying he remained confident he would win when all the votes were counted.
During a bitterly fought and often bad-tempered campaign, the two men have offered very different visions of Poland, and the result of the race will have enormous implications for the country's political future, given the president's ability to veto government legislation.
Trzaskowski is the pro-European, progressive mayor of Warsaw, who supports the liberalisation of abortion laws and the introduction of civil partnerships for LGBT couples. Nawrocki, a historian and former amateur boxer, has firmly rejected these moves and would likely veto any moves to implement them if elected.
The run-off came after neither candidate achieved more than 50% of votes in a crowded first-round vote two weeks ago. The winner will replace the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, who will step down in August after completing two terms. Duda is a political ally of the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland until Tusk's coalition won parliamentary elections in late 2023.
Tusk's time as prime minister has been marked by difficulties bringing his broad coalition into line, but also by having an ideologically opposed president in office. While the presidential role is largely ceremonial, it does have some influence over foreign and defence policy, as well as the critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which Tusk's government does not have.
Trzaskowski would smooth the way for Tusk to govern with intent, while a Nawrocki win would prolong the current deadlock, making it difficult for the government to pass any major reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
'Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he's got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,' Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics at the University of Sussex, said.
Trzaskowski, the Oxford-educated mayor of Warsaw since 2018, who previously held ministerial posts and served in the European parliament, has sought to project himself as a safe pair of hands to work with the government on implementing progressive reforms.
However, he has had to defend himself against suggestions he is out-of-touch and elitist, and against allegations about foreign funding for online advertising promoting his candidacy.
Sign up to This is Europe
The most pressing stories and debates for Europeans – from identity to economics to the environment
after newsletter promotion
Nawrocki, a historian and former museum director, has been head of the Institute of National Remembrance, a state research body often accused of peddling a politicised version of history, since 2021. During the campaign, a number of scandals about his alleged past conduct were aired in the media.
In the final days of the campaign, both candidates sought to court voters of candidates knocked out in the first round and mobilise their supporters. 'This election could be decided by single votes,' Nawrocki told a rally of supporters last week.
Trzaskowski also said every vote would be crucial. 'Encourage everyone, so that as many Poles as possible vote in the presidential election,' he told a rally on Friday. A high turnout in the parliamentary vote in 2023, especially among younger urban Poles, was seen as crucial to securing victory for Tusk's coalition.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
BBC News
23 minutes ago
- BBC News
Camden Council resists calls to extend ban on Waterlow Park BBQs
Camden Council has resisted campaigners' calls to permanently outlaw charcoal barbecues in Waterlow Park, after it imposed a temporary ban in temporary ban came after complaints of crowds of revellers with barbeques, fights, piles of rubbish and people defecating in bushes. The Highgate Village Green Preservation Society (HVGPS) said "scorched earth, mounting rubbish, ash bins smoking like chimneys and a huge increase in road traffic" were hurting the local community, environment and Harrison, from the north London council, said the park was originally created in 1889 as a "garden for the gardenless" and should remain accommodating. The council has, however, left the current temporary BBQ ban in place due to the increased risk of wildfires in dry, hot weather. According to the council's reports, the borough has the third-highest number of residents in the country without access to a private outdoor the council has resisted a permanent ban, Mr Harrison said the current policies around barbeques were "constantly under review". An online petition to end the smoky cookouts permanently was launched by HVGPS, and has about 1,500 supporters. Volunteers for the Waterlow Park Trust have also joined calls for total Wilkinson, chair of the trust's Barbecue Working Group, said: "What happened this year shows how Waterlow – the only public open space in London where people can use barbecues of any size – has become a victim of its own success." However, although the group recognises there is a problem, it says it does not want to see a permanent ban on barbeques. Council officers said the online petition, with they said had a "relatively low number of signatories versus residents", did not provide a full picture of the wider community's view.
The Sun
an hour ago
- The Sun
I watch FIVE hours of incest porn a day and can no longer enjoy real sex with my girlfriend… so I fake orgasms instead
WHEN an ex lover slipped out of bed after a steamy tryst and headed for the bathroom, I thought he had gone for a shower to cool down. As I basked in that blissful post-orgasm glow, I had no idea what he was really up to. 5 To my surprise, he was sneaking off to the bathroom to finish the job himself — with porn playing on his phone. Wracked with guilt, he later confessed about his spiralling porn addiction and how he'd become so hooked on hardcore porn, real sex now seemed boring. I'm The Sun's Sexpert, and this week in my no-holds-barred sex series, I'm tackling a powerful question from a reader who is also struggling with porn addiction. Reading his brave letter brought back raw memories of my own experience supporting someone through the same battle — and the emotional toll it can take on both parties. If you're in a similar situation, know this: there is light at the end of the tunnel. With the right support and mindset, you can rediscover real intimacy — and enjoy a healthy, satisfying sex life again... Q: People presume it's only women who fake orgasms, but men do it too. I should know, I've been doing it for the past six months with my partner. I've become so addicted to porn, I now find 'real sex' boring. It's not stimulating enough and I feel so guilty for my girlfriend because she has no idea. I especially love incest porn, like step-mums with step-sons. Perhaps this is because I had a secret crush on my step-mum growing up. It's starting to take over my life, and I'm spending hours on it a day while I work from home. How can I find real sex enjoyable again? Georgie answers your sex questions - Tips for tiny Peckers Georgie says: 'First of all — you're not alone. Porn addiction is becoming increasingly common in the UK. Last year porn addiction treatment providers at The UKAT Group surveyed 2,000 adults aged over 18 on their porn habits. The results revealed that a staggering 8.8 million UK adults are watching porn on a weekly basis. The majority - 3.7 million- of those viewers are aged 18-34; 3.3 million are aged 35-54, and 1.8 million are aged over 55. Worryingly, other reports indicate the average age of first exposure to porn is around 11 years old, with some research indicating it's as young as eight years old. Among under-18s, approximately 60 per cent display levels of porn consumption that meet the criteria for addiction. Part of the problem is just how easy it is to access porn in today's digital world. Whether it's on your phone or laptop, it's always just a few taps away. And with platforms like OnlyFans booming - and even mainstream social media flooded with explicit content - porn has become completely normalised, making it harder to escape if you're caught in a cycle of addiction. That said, watching porn isn't inherently bad. It can be a brilliant tool to explore fantasies, self pleasure and learn new skills. But if your porn consumption is impacting other areas of your life then you could have a problem - which may require professional help. But if you're wanting to enjoy 'real' sex again, here are some tips to help you reconnect with your body, your partner, and rediscover real pleasure. Because while porn might be useful for tapping into fantasies, it can never replace true intimacy - for that, you need the human touch. 5 Open up Communication is the key to good sex. Being able to share your fantasises with your partner and say what works and what doesn't is essential for a vibrant and varied love life. Skip the blame game — instead of saying, 'I don't like it when you do X, Y, Z,' try, 'I love it when you do X, Y, Z,' and lead with what's working in your sex life before bringing up anything new you'd like to explore. Taking a positive approach puts your partner at ease and makes them far more open to talking about what turns you on — and what you'd like to try next between the sheets. Write a sex bucket list Sometimes it's hard to open up about your desires face-to-face - people get embarrassed or simply don't know what to say. A fun way around this? Write your own sex bucket list and get your partner to do the same. Then go through each item together, using a traffic light system to share your turn-ons and boundaries: Green for 'oh baby, yes please'; Amber for 'maybe, let's talk about it'; Red for 'absolutely not, hun!' It's a playful, pressure-free way to communicate - and a great reminder that sex should be fun, not serious. Meet our sexpert In her eight years at The Sun, there's not much our Georgie hasn't seen - or done - and she's loved every outrageous minute. "People often ask how I became a sexpert," she says. "Well, I've been fascinated by sex and relationships for as long as I can remember. "As a teen, I devoured women's mags full of scandalous confessions and steamy tips - and I was obsessed with Sex and the City. "Maybe I was manifesting my inner Carrie Bradshaw from day one. "I'd always dreamed of working at The Sun - and when I finally landed the job, I found my niche fast: going to sex parties and oversharing about my frequently chaotic love life. "Over the years, I've built real trust within the kink and swinging community and I've interviewed hundreds of people about their sex lives. "Add to that my own, um, 'field research,' and let's just say I know what makes good sex great." Georgie says being a sexpert is about having life experience, curiosity, a sense of humour - and plenty of adventures along the way. "There's not much that shocks me these days," she continues. "Except maybe a man who doesn't believe in foreplay. "But nothing makes me happier than hearing a reader say my advice helped them feel more confident (and satisfied) in bed. "Now I'll be answering your burning sex questions - and dishing out practical advice to help get you back in the saddle." Try tantra If you're recovering from a porn addiction, chances are you've been overstimulated and conditioned to expect fast, furious, goal-driven sex. Slowing everything down and getting back in touch with your body can be a game-changer - and that's where Tantra comes in. Tantric sex isn't about rushing to the finish line. It's about connection, touch, and the journey. Start by lying next to your partner naked for ten minutes each night, simply caressing one another. You can hover your hands over each other's genitals, but don't engage in foreplay or intercourse. Just enjoy the intimacy, the build-up, the tease. Do this nightly for a week, gradually increasing the intensity - and when you do finally go all the way, the suspense and connection can lead to longer, deeper and more satisfying orgasms. Take sex out of the bedroom It may sound simple but taking sex out of the bedroom can actually help you reconnect with your partner and make things more exciting. Couples who report a healthy sex life often mix up locations and positions to things spontaneous and spicy. Shower sex can be a great way to do this. Just make sure you invest in a bathmat first; there's nothing sexy about a trip to A&E. Have a 'one night stand' If you're in a relationship, cast your mind back to when you first met — that blissful just-met sex, when you couldn't keep your hands off each other. What made it so exciting? In the early stages of a relationship, we're in what's called the limerence phase — often dubbed the honeymoon period. It's when everything feels electric, we overlook flaws, and the desire is instant and overwhelming. As time goes on most couples naturally fall into a routine. That wild, rip-each-other's-clothes-off urge starts to fade. In long-term relationships, our bodies often shift to what's known as responsive desire — where one of you initiates and the other gets turned on in response, rather than both feeling that instant, primal lust. But you can absolutely recreate that just-met spark. Book into a hotel and have a cheeky one-night stand — with each other. Go full roleplay: meet at a bar, pretend you're strangers, and seduce each other all over again. It's a fun and naughty way to bring back the thrill. Book a sexcation If you're coming out of a porn addiction, there are lots of reasons you might have turned to it in the first place. One way to reconnect with real-life intimacy is by booking a sexy getaway — ideally with your partner if you're in a relationship. Turn off your phone, and turn each other on. There are plenty of adults-only hotels designed for just that — from luxury stays with private dungeons to swinging retreats and everything in between. And if kink isn't your thing, no worries. A romantic break somewhere sunny can work wonders too. Soak up that vitamin D — because sunlight is brilliant for boosting both your mood and your libido.
Telegraph
an hour ago
- Telegraph
Inflation risks are taking Britain towards the debt-crisis cliff edge
The UK's consumer price index was 3.6pc higher in June than the same month last year – significantly above the Bank of England's 2pc inflation target. The broader retail price index rose even more, by 4.4pc. Unemployment is also up, hitting 4.7pc during the three months to May, a four-year high. And last week's double dose of downbeat data came against a backdrop of broader economic weakness, with GDP having shrunk in both April and May. It's now screamingly obvious that Labour's crude Keynesianism – 'pump priming' the economy by upping state borrowing and spending – isn't working. Worse than that, this Government's actions are pushing Britain towards a budgetary crisis every bit as serious as that in 1976, when the UK was forced to go 'cap in hand' to the International Monetary Fund for a bail-out. Chancellor Rachel Reeves's higher tax rates have been hammering economic activity, causing tax revenues to fall. Yet Labour's leadership, driven by ideological fervour and fearing the party's increasingly strident far left, keeps pushing spending up regardless. The sharp rise in the rate of employer National Insurance contributions (NIC) has caused hiring to plunge since it was announced in last October's Budget, undermining NIC revenues overall. Labour's higher capital gains tax (CGT) rates mean investors aren't selling assets, causing CGT revenues to plunge. A far more punitive non-domicile tax regime and much higher inheritance tax on businesses has sparked an exodus of wealthy individuals, with countless UK entrepreneurs moving abroad. The top 1pc of earners generate 30pc of all income tax receipts, with the top 5pc paying almost half. But when you push the seriously rich overseas with a student-politics tax regime, they often stop investing and close their UK-based businesses. So the revenue loss goes way beyond income tax, spreading across the gamut of employment and corporate taxes too. As a former asset manager, I talk to many senior people at the global pension funds, insurance companies and other institutional investors that lend governments serious money. They ask me about UK politics and public policy and I ask them what they are doing and why. So when I say financiers are not only deeply unimpressed but seriously alarmed at this Government's actions, that's directly from the horse's mouth. Anyone remotely financially literate can see investors are demanding ever higher returns to bankroll this increasingly spendthrift Government. The interest rates our Government pays to borrow are now at their highest level since the late 1990s, but on a far greater volume of debt. The UK's benchmark 30-year gilt yield last week breached 5.5pc – and has been way above 5pc for the whole of this year. Borrowing costs, then, are consistently much higher than the 4.85pc peak they momentarily touched during Liz Truss's 'mini-budget' crisis in October 2022. Yet the broadcast media's reaction, hysterical back then, is now ridiculously complacent. Draw your own conclusions as to why. Last August, just after Labour took office, the 30-year yield was below 4.5pc. Since then, increasingly sceptical investors have pushed it a full percentage point higher. During this same period, the Bank of England has cut its benchmark borrowing cost from 5.25pc to 4.25pc, a percentage point in the opposite direction. 'Market rates' and 'policy rates' moving against each other are a clear sign of brewing systemic danger. The warning signals are flashing red, yet almost no one in a political and media class addicted to government spending wants to acknowledge what's going on. In April 2024, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast the Government would borrow £87bn over the subsequent 12 months. When that financial year ended in April 2025, the figure was £148bn, an astonishing 70pc more. Endless discussions about whether 'fiscal headroom' in 2029/30 is £5bn or £10bn is utter displacement activity. We can't even get within £60bn of our borrowing estimate within the current financial year. The reality in front of us is that Britain borrowed £148bn last year and £110bn or three quarters of that increase in our national debt went on interest payments on debt previously incurred. Our public finances resemble a Ponzi scheme. Reeves and Keir Starmer cite crowd-pleasing nonsense about 'school breakfast clubs' and 'world-class public services'. As if it's fine to drive the UK into bankruptcy, provoking a full-on bail-out and all the resulting financial and economic chaos because the money is being spent under virtue-signalling headings. 'Borrowing costs are going up around the world', bleat fresh-faced government spin doctors. Yes, but UK gilt yields and total debt service payments are now easily the highest in the G7. Plus, much of the private money invested in UK gilts is 'levered' – or also borrowed. And when the backers of the Government's backers get worried, as they now are, they will eventually 'margin call' creditors, igniting a sudden and self-reinforcing sell-off that sends yields and economy-wide borrowing costs into orbit. On top of all that, Britain is a stark outlier when it comes to the share of 'index-linked' state debt – with regular interest payments rising in line with RPI inflation. Around 30pc of UK gilts are 'linkers', compared to just 12pc in Italy (the G7's next highest) and 5pc in Germany and the US – reflecting long-standing market concerns about vast UK government off-balance-sheet liabilities, not least the trillion-pound-plus bill for still insanely generous pensions for state employees. Britain's sky-high share of index-linked state debt, a long-standing ruse to keep headline yields as low as possible, is coming home to roost. As inflation rises, debt service costs ratchet upward, resulting in ever more borrowing to pay those costs as our tax-strapped economy struggles. That's why, when last week's higher-than-expected inflation number emerged, yields rose sharply. The UK is close to the debt-crisis cliff-edge – and ministers can't say they weren't warned.
