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Time of India
39 minutes ago
- Time of India
Bullish positioned in cement and telecom; Nifty recovery likely in H2: Nikhil Ranka
Nikhil Ranka , CIO, Nuvama Asset Management , says Nifty stocks may see single-digit earnings growth due to banking sector challenges. Recovery is expected in the second half of the year. Cement and telecom sectors look promising with oligopoly structures. Reliance and Bharti dominate telecom. Tariff hikes are anticipated. Cement pricing is likely to increase. Clarity on tariffs is awaited in August, impacting exporter prospects. I saw your medium-term outlook for Nifty is 26,200, which means around 1,100 to 1,200 points rally from here. How do you gauge the market currently and when do you think that level will be achieved? Nikhil Ranka: We have put out a fair value of close to 26,000, 26,200 on Nifty. If you go back for the last seven-eight years and if you look at the broad trading range, the multiples at which indexes have traded, you will find that markets have traded between 19 and 20 times one year forward earnings. Now, we ended FY25 at closer to Rs 1,020 EPS and if you build in the consensus estimates for the next two years, we are somewhere closer to Rs 1,150 for FY26 and Rs 1,300 for FY27. Therefore if you put that same 20 times earnings to that EPS of Rs 1,300, you are potentially looking at 26,000 on the Nifty. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Design Thinking healthcare CXO Finance Technology Data Science MBA Digital Marketing Data Science Product Management Healthcare Others Leadership MCA Artificial Intelligence Project Management Cybersecurity Operations Management Public Policy PGDM Management Degree Data Analytics others Skills you'll gain: Duration: 22 Weeks IIM Indore CERT-IIMI DTAI Async India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 25 Weeks IIM Kozhikode CERT-IIMK PCP DTIM Async India Starts on undefined Get Details by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like New Container Houses Indonesia (Prices May Surprise You) Container House | Search ads Search Now Undo Now, the only thing we have to look out for is these estimates build in a 12% to 14% earnings CAGR for markets over the next two years and we have started to a very slow start. So, this quarter and next, we will have a single-digit earnings growth for Nifty stocks predominantly because the banking sector is facing a lot of NIM compression given the uncertainty around tariffs, decision making has got delayed. We are banking on a recovery in the second half of this year for us to get to that Rs 1,150 of EPS for FY26 and then the earnings recovery continuing into FY27 for us to get to that 26,000 levels over the next 9 to 12 months. Markets are performing, but there are ups and downs and there is a lot of volatility which is, of course, the nature of the market, but we are still waiting for an absolute constant bullish phase. Having said so, what are the next triggers? Is it the earnings that will help the market and in particular what are the top compounding themes? You did touch base on the banks and financials, but will it be the consumption theme that will help the market? Will the automobile make a comeback? What are the themes and is the investment philosophy at present? Nikhil Ranka : Two sectors where we are relatively bullishly positioned are cement and telecom. Both the sectors are in an oligopoly structure. In telecom for example, Reliance and Bharti together account for close to 80% of the market share and global uncertainty has very little impact on the earnings for these sectors. We had a tariff hike nine months back that has more or less got absorbed and in the next three to six months, we are looking forward to one more tariff hike and the incremental flow through of EBITDA for telecom companies is almost 70% because the costs are more or less fixed in nature. For telecom, infrastructure cost is the major cost which does not change so much and therefore, we believe that it is one of the sectors where earnings visibility is high and multiples should sustain. Secondly, in cement, the replacement cost is close to $120. If you add some working capital requirements, you need the sector to make close to Rs 1,500 of EBITDA to get to that 13-15% ROCs and it is closer to Rs 1,000-1,100 and it has got consolidated between UltraTech and the Adanis, close to 350 million tonnes between these two players. My sense is the same thing that we saw in telecom 9 to 12 months back, slowly pricing has started increasing, and the same thing is likely to pan out for the cement sector also. So, we feel that there will be earnings as well as multiples rerating for that sector. Live Events You Might Also Like: How will the Indian banking scene be five years down the line? Dinesh Kumar Khara explains Coming to the earnings outlook , the market is waiting with baited breath as to what happens on 1st of August because we will get a clarity on what will be the tariff outlook going forward because what has happened is given that companies had this three-month window from April to August, a lot of shipments would have taken place in these three months and if we have a high tariff structure coming through, then Q2, Q3 could have some challenges for exporters in that sense. We are looking at single-digit earnings growth for Q1 and Q2. If something goes wrong on that front, then even Q3, Q4 become uncertain in terms of recovery. My sense is if we have clarity in August on tariffs and they are not very bad. The market should take heart from that because markets do not like uncertainty. Once we have certainty on tariffs coming through, the market should start the next leg of upward journey. You mentioned earnings season and Infosys is one of your top holdings, with results due in a couple of days. Other IT majors have posted the results which the Street has not liked much. But overall, Nifty IT has not fallen as much as the bad earnings they have posted. What is your view on it? Nikhil Ranka : We did this study for IT companies even during Covid when there was a lot of uncertainty and we saw was that during the period of initial uncertainty where there was no visibility as to how earnings would come through, for the rest of the sectors there was a 50-60% earnings downgrade, but eventually IT was one sector where revenues were more or less flat and there was very little earnings downgrade. My view is the same is happening with IT even this time around. Given the uncertainty around tariffs, Q1 and Q2 are likely to be weak because a lot of decision making has got deferred. But my sense is Q3 onwards, these stocks will start performing because we will have a visibility on revenue growth coming back and the good part about it is none of these companies are levered in terms of their balance sheet. You Might Also Like: Pankaj Pandey on 5 sectors that look good to bet on in this market IT is always a P&L issue which is a very short-term issue and very easy to repair. The problem comes with stocks where there is a big hole that happens in the balance sheet, things get levered and then it takes three-four years for the entire repair balance sheet repair to happen. That is not our base case in IT. We feel Q3 onwards, things should start coming back. Even if you look at the consensus estimates for Infosys, for rest of the players, we have seen a constant currency decline that has happened in Q1, Q2 outlook is also subdued but for Infosys the broker estimates are suggesting that they should have a closer to 2% constant currency growth this quarter and if that happens, in most probability, there will be an guidance upgrade for Infosys because they had guided for zero to 3% constant currency growth when they had come out with their outlook. That could get upgraded if we see a 2% constant currency growth in this quarter for Infosys. One of your famous market quotes is that it is not whether you are right or wrong in markets that is important, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong. I completely second the thought. What is your advice to the market participants? What should be the strategy, be it the broader markets, be the benchmarks, the midcap and smallcap while they are drawing their portfolio? Nikhil Ranka: Longer-term, markets have given returns which are more or less in line with the nominal GDP growth. One of the only things that you have to watch out for is to avoid the flavour-of-the-season stories and not get into stocks where the euphoria is built more on hype and actual numbers are just not visible. We will look for a philosophy of growth at a reasonable price. Stocks and sectors, which even if on a near-term basis look a bit expensive, but which still have the longevity of earnings. The worst case that can happen is probably for one year you do not make returns and as earnings catch up, next year onwards you still get back to your compounding of that 12% to 15% growth. We do not want stories where there is a risk of permanent loss of capital and so investors should look out for core fundamentals, cash flows, earnings visibility when they are constructing their portfolio. You Might Also Like: Nilesh Shah on how to treat smallcaps and midcaps right now In terms of guidance, you should keep expecting 10% to 12% earnings growth from largecaps because our nominal GDP growth is around that 10-11% and if you do some sort of decent stock selection and sector picking, then investors can expect 12-15% compounding to happen from markets over the medium-term. Reliance has posted earnings on Friday. What is your view on the oil and gas sector? Nikhil Ranka: Reliance can be broadly dissected into three broad segments. One is oil and gas, one is retail and the third is telecom. Telecom that is where the key stock price driver is there because they have now close to 45-47% market share on the telecom and the street is looking out for some signs of tariff hikes to come through. If we get some clarity on when the Jio listing would come at the AGM somewhere in August, that will be one of the triggers that the Street is looking out for. In terms of oil and gas, there is not much expansion happening. So that is a steady state Rs 60,000 crores EBITDA the segment is delivering for them. In terms of retail also, across the sector, be it Trent, be it DMart, growth has slowed down a bit. We have seen contraction in growth rates across the sector and it was visible for Reliance as well that retail did not grow as much as expected and that is where the disappointment of the Street is. Secondly, you have to understand that the base has become quite big for Reliance. So, we are at close to Rs 1,70,000 crore of EBITDA base for Reliance and the management has guided that by end of the decade, they will look to double their EBITDA. So, if you hold patiently for five-six years, in line with what the growth will be, one could probably look at 12% to 15% returns in the stocks from here on out.


Time of India
42 minutes ago
- Time of India
Kristin Cabot and husband Andrew's massive mortgage for their lavish home
Astronomer HR chief Kristin Cabot, who is at the centre of the Coldplay kiss cam drama, took out a $1.6 million mortgage on a fixer-upper she purchased with her husband, according to The U.S. Sun. A social media storm was triggered after Cabot was caught cuddling with now-former Astronomer CEO Andy Byron. She is married to Andrew, a sixth-generation heir to the Privateer Rum fortune. The documents in possession of The US Sun revealed that the couple bought a $2.2 million home on the New Hampshire coast in March 2025. The Cabots took out a massive loan on the house with Morgan Stanley, and both of their names are on the paperwork for the mortgage. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Finance healthcare Artificial Intelligence Others Data Science Operations Management Data Science Management PGDM Project Management Cybersecurity Data Analytics CXO Healthcare Product Management Digital Marketing MCA others Design Thinking Technology Degree Public Policy Leadership MBA Skills you'll gain: Duration: 7 Months S P Jain Institute of Management and Research CERT-SPJIMR Fintech & Blockchain India Starts on undefined Get Details Skills you'll gain: Duration: 9 Months IIM Calcutta SEPO - IIMC CFO India Starts on undefined Get Details It is pertinent to mention that the couple is yet to be seen in public since the Coldplay kiss cam clip went viral, and there is no update on whether or not they have split. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Top 15 Most Beautiful Women in the World Undo How mortgage makes things difficult in case of divorce If a couple is seeking a divorce, a mortgage could mess up things, as both parties will be responsible for payments, regardless of who lives in the house. The couple, if separated, may need to sell up or have one party refinance to take over the loan. According to research, a quitclaim deed can also transfer ownership, but it doesn't remove liability from the mortgage. Live Events Andrew and Kristin Cabot's lavish house The lavish four-bed, two-bath residence is being called a "classic New England gem" online, which is ready to be brought back to its former glory. It's unclear if the couple has started spending on renovations or hired anyone to make plans for the property yet. The home, which sits on 1.42 acres just two miles from the beach, was sold 'as is' since it 'needs rehab' and features fruit trees, berry bushes, and scenic pastoral views. The property also includes high ceilings, a wraparound enclosed porch, a walk-up attic, and a two-car garage. Andrew and Kristin Cabot's background and lineage Andrew's family lineage goes back ten generations in New England and includes privateers, industrial titans, and merchant traders who played an instrumental role in shaping the American aristocracy, according to reports. The Cabots are one of Boston's original "Brahmin" families. It is a blue-blooded elite so powerful that even the Kennedy clan was considered too new-money to join their ranks. The family made its fortune in "carbon black," soot used in car tyres, and held vast holdings in Cabot Corporation. Their empire has included chemicals, paint, gas, and rum, with Kristin once serving as an "advisory board member" for Privateer. They have not been seen since the scandal broke when a TikTok clip went viral of Kristin's boss wrapping his arms around her at the concert during a romantic moment on the big screen. This seems to be the second marriage for both. Kristin's previous divorce was finalized in 2022, according to the New York Post. Meanwhile , Byron, who has now resigned, and his wife, Megan, are also said to be in hiding, according to media reports.


Time of India
an hour ago
- Time of India
Official India jobless data is not accurate, say top independent economists: Poll
The Indian government's unemployment data is inaccurate and masks the severity of joblessness and underemployment, according to a Reuters poll of independent economists, several of whom said the true jobless rate is around twice the official figure. India is the world's fastest-growing major economy at an annual rate of 7.4% in the January-March quarter, but so far growth has failed to create enough well-paying jobs for the millions of young people entering the workforce each year. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category MBA Design Thinking Digital Marketing Product Management Artificial Intelligence Degree Finance healthcare Data Science PGDM Data Analytics CXO Operations Management Data Science MCA Management others Healthcare Project Management Leadership Others Technology Cybersecurity Public Policy Skills you'll gain: Analytical Skills Financial Literacy Leadership and Management Skills Strategic Thinking Duration: 24 Months Vellore Institute of Technology VIT Online MBA Starts on Aug 14, 2024 Get Details Skills you'll gain: Financial Management Team Leadership & Collaboration Financial Reporting & Analysis Advocacy Strategies for Leadership Duration: 18 Months UMass Global Master of Business Administration (MBA) Starts on May 13, 2024 Get Details Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is now more than one year into a third term after losing a commanding majority, partly blamed on discontent among youth over their future prospects. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Indonesia: Unsold Sofas May Be at Bargain Prices (Prices May Surprise You) Sofas | Search Ads Search Now Undo Over 70% of independent economists polled over the last month, 37 of 50, said the official unemployment rate, at 5.6% in June, is inaccurate. In a Reuters survey last year most economists flagged chronic joblessness as the government's biggest challenge. Experts say outdated definitions of what constitutes a job in a country of more than 1.4 billion people are distorting the true scale of unemployment and underemployment. Live Events "The whole thing to me is really throwing dust in your eyes. You say this is the unemployment rate, the growth rate - quite often, they don't make much sense. We have a massive employment problem and that is not reflected in the data," said Pranab Bardhan, professor emeritus of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. "Most Indian workers are underemployed. If you are able-bodied and you did not work for any time, not even one hour in the last six months, unless you are rich, how did you feed yourself?... So you scrounge around and do something. And then you are employed. Now what does that employment mean?" asked Bardhan. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), which estimates India's official employment and unemployment data, counts anyone working even one hour a week as employed. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation defended the credibility of its labour force data and its representation of India's labour market dynamics, saying the PLFS uses Computer-Assisted Personal Interviews to improve data quality and reduce errors, and noted international agencies use its data in their reporting. While it is difficult to provide an alternate estimate of the jobless rate, 17 experts surveyed did, giving a median of 10%, ranging from 7% to as high as 35%. For years, India published official unemployment rates of around 4%, partly because statisticians counted unpaid family labour and subsistence work as employment. Experts argue this diverges from international norms and makes the jobless rate incomparable with other countries. And it is not just academics and career labour market experts who are concerned about data accuracy. "Unemployment is one of our big challenges and I don't believe the government data reflects the true ground situation," said Duvvuri Subbarao, Reserve Bank of India Governor from 2008-2013. Subbarao said the kind of jobs being created also matters. As high-growth sectors like finance and IT tend to be less labour-intensive, he called for a sharper policy focus on manufacturing, which holds greater potential for large-scale employment. About a quarter of experts polled had no problem with the accuracy of official jobless data. "No one in the world has perfect employment data. People assume the U.S. labour force survey is perfect. It's not. Our PLFS is very robust now. People just don't want to believe it," said Surjit Bhalla, former executive director for India at the International Monetary Fund. But several experts said even if methodologically sound, official figures fail to capture deeper challenges. On its current path, India will take at least two decades to match the female labour force participation rates of other G20 countries, the survey found. A lack of strong job creation is also showing up in stagnating wages. "We are home to some of the big dollar billionaires... the wealth of some of the elite has been growing dramatically over the past decade. But real wages are not growing. Half of the workers are getting less than they got even 10 years ago. To me, these are not signs of a healthy economy," said Jayati Ghosh, professor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. "We should be prioritising good quality employment generation," she said. Asked what the government should prioritise to create more high-quality jobs, several said improving education and skills, promoting private investment and reducing regulatory hurdles. "Stop selling the narrative that farm jobs growth (is) to be read as jobs growth. Adopt an industrial policy, with a manufacturing strategy that is horizontal in nature, not a PLI type picking winners tactic, that is clearly failing," said Santosh Mehrotra, professor at the University of Bath. PLI (Production Linked Incentive) is a subsidy scheme to boost domestic manufacturing. The government scaled back the scheme just four years after its launch.