
Palomar (PLMR) Q2 Revenue Jumps 55%
Non-GAAP EPS reached $1.76 in Q2 2025, beating non-GAAP analyst estimates and This figure represents a 40.8% increase compared to Q2 2024.
GAAP revenue totaled $203.3 million in Q2 2025, This was up 55.1% year over year.
Palomar raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance for 2025 and continued to diversify beyond its core earthquake insurance segment.
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Palomar (NASDAQ:PLMR), a specialty property insurance provider known for its focus on niche markets such as earthquake and specialty lines, announced its Q2 2025 results on August 4, 2025. The most important headline: Palomar delivered better-than-expected non-GAAP earnings per share and raised its outlook for adjusted net income for 2025. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $1.76, ahead of the $1.67 non-GAAP analyst estimate, while GAAP revenue was reported as $203.3 million. Net earned premiums, a core insurance metric, climbed 47.2% year-over-year (GAAP). Overall, the period was marked by solid organic growth across key business lines, increases in profitability, and tangible progress on Palomar's diversification initiatives.
Metric Q2 2025 Q2 2025 Estimate Q2 2024 Y/Y Change
EPS (Non-GAAP) $1.76 $1.67 $1.25 40.8 %
Revenue (GAAP) $203.3 million N/A $131.1 million 55.1 %
Net Earned Premiums $180.0 million $122.3 million 47.2 %
Adjusted Combined Ratio 73.1 % 73.1 % 0.0 %
Annualized Adjusted Return on Equity 23.7 % 24.7 % (1.0) pp
Source: Analyst estimates provided by FactSet. Management expectations based on management's guidance, as provided in Q1 2025 earnings report.
Palomar's Business and Growth Focus
Palomar's core business centers on specialty property and casualty insurance for underserved risk categories. It holds a prominent position in earthquake insurance in California, is growing rapidly in casualty, with gross written premium for casualty increasing 113% year-over-year, and also serves markets like inland marine, fronting, and crop insurance. Its competitive edge comes from using advanced technology platforms and proprietary analytics for underwriting and pricing, allowing for speed and flexibility.
In recent years, Palomar has prioritized diversification. It is broadening its insurance offerings outside earthquake coverage, focusing on product expansion, geographic reach, and customer mix. These moves aim to reduce its reliance on any single risk type or region. Key success factors include disciplined risk management, strong reinsurance programs, and investments in operational technology.
Quarter in Detail: Revenue Growth, Segment Trends, and Profitability Drivers
Palomar saw a notable increase in business activity. Net earned premiums (GAAP) increased from $122.3 million in Q2 2024 to $180.0 million, reflecting expansion across product lines. Growth in premiums written was strongest in the casualty segment, which surged 118.8% to $128.2 million and The casualty segment now composes over a quarter of total gross written premium. Inland marine and property lines gross written premiums grew 28.4%. Crop insurance posted impressive gains, with gross written premium rising from $2.2 million to $39.5 million year over year. Conversely, the fronting segment, previously a larger contributor, declined 36.5% as expected due to the wind-down of a major partnership.
The diversification strategy was evident in the quarterly mix: earthquake made up 29.8% of gross written premiums (down from 35.1% in Q2 2024), while no single line exceeded that share. Geographically, California exposure was 33.0% of gross written premium, further highlighting Palomar's broader portfolio. This balance limits concentration risk and reflects a shift toward markets with higher growth potential.
Key profitability metrics also improved. The adjusted combined ratio (non-GAAP), which measures claims and expenses as a percentage of premiums earned, remained stable at 73.1%. The combined ratio excluding catastrophe losses ticked up, and upfront expense recognition related to crop business expansion. Loss ratios, which show claims costs compared to premiums, rose modestly from 24.9% in Q2 2024 to 25.7%, while the catastrophe loss ratio (non-GAAP) dropped to zero, signaling an absence of major insured events this period. The expense ratio (GAAP) improved, falling to 53.1% from 54.2% compared to Q2 2024.
Earthquake insurance, Palomar's original specialty, recorded slower but steady growth, with management expecting mid- to high-teens gross written premium growth for FY2025. Thanks to investments in new talent and acquisitions like Advanced AgProtection. Notably, the fronting business is in runoff and becoming less significant for the company's outlook. On the finance side, net investment income rose 68.0% year over year, benefiting from higher yields and a bigger asset base, while annualized adjusted return on equity (non-GAAP) was 23.7%.
Strategic Initiatives and Risk Management Execution
During the period, Palomar made progress on several strategic initiatives. Specialty insurance markets like earthquake remain core to its identity, but expansion in casualty, crop, and inland marine has reshaped its revenue balance. The acquisition of Advanced AgProtection expanded the crop business's geographic reach and distribution footprint. Meanwhile, the planned runoff of the fronting segment, particularly following the termination of larger partnerships, continued as forecast and should have less impact after the next quarter.
The company also executed a successful renewal of its reinsurance program at an adjusted rate decrease of approximately 10% year-over-year. Reinsurance is a form of insurance for insurers, letting Palomar limit its exposure to large, unpredictable events like natural disasters. The structure of its catastrophe bond placements and reinsurance treaties has further reduced volatility, as evidenced by the minimal catastrophe losses this quarter.
Investment in technology and analytics was again highlighted, supporting automation and operational scale. These efforts allow for more targeted underwriting in specialty lines and maintain Palomar's competitive position, though the company is incurring additional costs as it builds out new lines, especially crop.
The company does not currently pay a dividend.
Looking Ahead: Outlook and Watch Points
Management raised its full-year adjusted net income guidance to a range of $198–208 million (non-GAAP) for 2025, up from the prior estimate of $186–200 million (adjusted net income). This new outlook factors in a likely $8–12 million in catastrophe-related losses for the remainder of the year, as well as the expected seasonal effects from crop insurance operations. Overall, the company expects the combined ratio to be in the mid-to-upper 70% range.
Investors should monitor several evolving trends and risks. These include sustained growth in casualty and crop gross written premiums, ongoing reduction in the fronting segment, expense levels tied to scaling new lines, the attritional loss ratio as business mix changes, and potential shifts in reinsurance market conditions. Analysts will look to see—especially as the company adapts to changing competitive pressures.
Revenue and net income presented using U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) unless otherwise noted.
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Shareholders of exchangeable shares will receive the CAD equivalent of dividends declared on Class A and Class B common stock, equal to CAD 0.64 per share. On July 4, 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act ('OBBBA') was enacted into law in the U.S. The OBBBA permanently extends certain expiring provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, including accelerated tax recovery for certain capital investments and research and development expenditures and the business interest expense limitation. Additionally, the OBBBA includes changes to the taxation of foreign income for U.S.-domiciled businesses. While we are currently evaluating the impact of the OBBBA to the Company, we do anticipate a decrease in our current year cash tax liability as a result of the OBBBA. Article content NOTES Article content Unless otherwise indicated in this release, all $ amounts are in U.S. Dollars, and all quarterly comparative results are for the Company's second quarter ended June 30, 2025, compared to the second quarter ended June 30, 2024. Some numbers may not sum due to rounding. Article content 2025 SECOND QUARTER INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL Article content Molson Coors Beverage Company will conduct an earnings conference call with financial analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time today to discuss the Company's 2025 second quarter results. The live webcast will be accessible via our website, An online replay of the webcast is expected to be posted within two hours following the live webcast. The Company will post this release and related financial statements on its website today. Article content For more than two centuries, we have brewed beverages that unite people to celebrate all life's moments. From our core power brands Coors Light, Miller Lite, Coors Banquet, Molson Canadian, Carling and Ožujsko to our above premium brands including Madrí Excepcional, Staropramen, Blue Moon Belgian White and Leinenkugel's Summer Shandy, to our economy and value brands like Miller High Life and Keystone Light, we produce many beloved and iconic beers. While our Company's history is rooted in beer, we offer a modern portfolio that expands beyond the beer aisle as well, including flavored beverages like Vizzy Hard Seltzer, spirits like Five Trail whiskey and non-alcoholic beverages. We also have partner brands, such as Simply Spiked, ZOA Energy, Fever-Tree, among others, through license, distribution, partnership and joint venture agreements. As a business, our ambition is to be the first choice for our people, our consumers and our customers, and our success depends on our ability to make our products available to meet a wide range of consumer segments and occasions. Article content ABOUT MOLSON COORS CANADA INC. Article content Molson Coors Canada Inc. ('MCCI') is a subsidiary of Molson Coors Beverage Company. MCCI Class A and Class B exchangeable shares offer substantially the same economic and voting rights as the respective classes of common shares of MCBC, as described in MCBC's annual proxy statement and Form 10-K filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The trustee holder of the special Class A voting stock and the special Class B voting stock has the right to cast a number of votes equal to the number of then outstanding Class A exchangeable shares and Class B exchangeable shares, respectively. Article content This press release includes 'forward-looking statements' within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Generally, the words 'expects,' 'intend,' 'goals,' 'plans,' 'believes,' 'confidence,' 'view,' 'continues,' 'may,' 'anticipate,' 'seek,' 'estimate,' 'outlook,' 'trends,' 'future benefits,' 'potential,' 'projects,' 'strategies,' 'implies,' and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Statements that refer to projections of our future financial performance, our anticipated growth and trends in our businesses, and other characterizations of future events or circumstances are forward-looking statements, and include, but are not limited to, statements under the headings 'CEO and CFO Perspectives' and '2025 Outlook,' with respect to, among others, expectations and impacts of cost inflation and tariffs, limited consumer disposable income, consumer preferences, overall volume and market share trends, our competitive position, pricing trends, macroeconomic forces, beverage industry trends, cost reduction strategies, execution of our Acceleration Plan, shipment levels and profitability, the sufficiency of capital resources, anticipated results, expectations for funding future capital expenditures and operations, effective tax rate, debt service capabilities, timing and amounts of debt and leverage levels, Preserving the Planet and related initiatives, expectations regarding the impact of the OBBBA on our current year cash tax liability and expectations regarding future dividends and share repurchases. In addition, statements that we make in this press release that are not statements of historical fact may also be forward-looking statements. Article content Although the Company believes that the assumptions upon which its forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these assumptions will prove to be correct. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's historical experience, and present projections and expectations are disclosed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission ('SEC'), including the risks discussed in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. All forward-looking statements in this press release are expressly qualified by such cautionary statements and by reference to the underlying assumptions. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. We do not undertake to update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Article content MARKET AND INDUSTRY DATA Article content The market and industry data used, if any, in this press release are based on independent industry publications, customer specific data, trade or business organizations, reports by market research firms and other published statistical information from third parties, including Circana (formerly Information Resources, Inc.) for U.S. market data and Beer Canada for Canadian market data (collectively, the 'Third Party Information'), as well as information based on management's good faith estimates, which we derive from our review of internal information and independent sources. Such Third Party Information generally states that the information contained therein or provided by such sources has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Article content STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS – MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY AND SUBSIDIARIES Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Sales $ 3,740.0 $ 3,838.1 $ 6,430.2 $ 6,887.4 Excise taxes (539.2 ) (585.8 ) (925.3 ) (1,038.7 ) Net sales 3,200.8 3,252.3 5,504.9 5,848.7 Cost of goods sold (1,918.9 ) (1,922.4 ) (3,372.1 ) (3,555.3 ) Gross profit 1,281.9 1,329.9 2,132.8 2,293.4 Marketing, general and administrative expenses (693.1 ) (728.5 ) (1,346.3 ) (1,383.1 ) Other operating income (expense), net (9.2 ) 0.1 (25.1 ) 6.4 Equity income (loss) 4.0 (1.9 ) 8.5 (2.8 ) Operating income (loss) 583.6 599.6 769.9 913.9 Interest income (expense), net (58.5 ) (51.2 ) (115.1 ) (99.6 ) Other pension and postretirement benefits (costs), net 3.5 7.3 7.3 14.7 Other non-operating income (expense), net 26.3 4.2 49.1 (3.7 ) Income (loss) before income taxes 554.9 559.9 711.2 825.3 Income tax benefit (expense) (130.6 ) (134.6 ) (163.8 ) (190.1 ) Net income (loss) 424.3 425.3 547.4 635.2 Net (income) loss attributable to noncontrolling interests 4.4 1.7 2.3 (0.4 ) Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC $ 428.7 $ 427.0 $ 549.7 $ 634.8 Basic net income (loss) attributable to MCBC per share $ 2.14 $ 2.03 $ 2.73 $ 3.00 Diluted net income (loss) attributable to MCBC per share $ 2.13 $ 2.03 $ 2.71 $ 2.99 Weighted average shares outstanding – basic 200.5 210.0 201.7 211.3 Weighted average shares outstanding – diluted 201.2 210.8 202.6 212.5 Dividends per share $ 0.47 $ 0.44 $ 0.94 $ 0.88 Article content BALANCE SHEETS – MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY AND SUBSIDIARIES Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (In millions, except par value) (Unaudited) As of June 30, 2025 December 31, 2024 Assets Current assets Cash and cash equivalents $ 613.8 $ 969.3 Trade receivables, net 1,021.7 693.1 Other receivables, net 133.7 149.8 Inventories, net 902.0 727.8 Other current assets, net 404.9 308.4 Total current assets 3,076.1 2,848.4 Property, plant and equipment, net 4,633.4 4,460.4 Goodwill 5,592.0 5,582.3 Other intangibles, net 12,394.4 12,195.2 Other assets 1,130.8 978.0 Total assets $ 26,826.7 $ 26,064.3 Liabilities and equity Current liabilities Accounts payable and other current liabilities $ 3,178.3 $ 3,013.0 Current portion of long-term debt and short-term borrowings 62.3 32.2 Total current liabilities 3,240.6 3,045.2 Long-term debt 6,257.0 6,113.9 Pension and postretirement benefits 415.1 416.7 Deferred tax liabilities 2,794.2 2,733.4 Other liabilities 323.1 302.4 Total liabilities 13,030.0 12,611.6 Redeemable noncontrolling interest 160.4 168.5 Molson Coors Beverage Company stockholders' equity Capital stock Preferred stock, $0.01 par value (authorized: 25.0 shares; none issued) — — Class A common stock, $0.01 par value (authorized: 500.0 shares; issued and outstanding: 2.6 shares and 2.6 shares, respectively) — — Class B common stock, $0.01 par value (authorized: 500.0 shares; issued: 216.1 shares and 215.5 shares, respectively) 2.2 2.1 Class A exchangeable shares, no par value (issued and outstanding: 2.7 shares and 2.7 shares, respectively) 100.8 100.8 Class B exchangeable shares, no par value (issued and outstanding: 7.1 shares and 7.2 shares, respectively) 266.9 271.1 Paid-in capital 7,230.6 7,223.6 Retained earnings 8,597.5 8,238.0 Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) (1,066.9 ) (1,362.4 ) Class B common stock held in treasury at cost (30.3 shares and 24.8 shares, respectively) (1,690.4 ) (1,380.8 ) Total Molson Coors Beverage Company stockholders' equity 13,440.7 13,092.4 Noncontrolling interests 195.6 191.8 Total equity 13,636.3 13,284.2 Total liabilities and equity $ 26,826.7 $ 26,064.3 Article content CASH FLOW STATEMENTS – MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY AND SUBSIDIARIES Condensed Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Cash flows from operating activities Net income (loss) including noncontrolling interests $ 547.4 $ 635.2 Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) to net cash provided by (used in) operating activities Depreciation and amortization 350.4 336.7 Amortization of debt issuance costs and discounts 2.6 2.7 Share-based compensation 18.9 24.2 (Gain) loss on sale or impairment of property, plant, equipment and other assets, net (6.1 ) (6.4 ) Unrealized (gain) loss on foreign currency fluctuations, fair value investments and derivative instruments, net (77.4 ) (28.0 ) Equity (income) loss (8.5 ) 2.8 Income tax (benefit) expense 163.8 190.1 Income tax (paid) received (58.0 ) (105.2 ) Interest expense, excluding amortization of debt issuance costs and discounts 120.3 110.5 Interest paid (137.2 ) (102.5 ) Other non-cash items, net (2.1 ) — Change in current assets and liabilities (net of impact of business combinations) and other (286.5 ) (165.5 ) Net cash provided by (used in) operating activities 627.6 894.6 Cash flows from investing activities Additions to property, plant and equipment (400.6 ) (392.2 ) Proceeds from sales of property, plant, equipment and other assets 4.4 10.3 Acquisition of business, net of cash acquired (20.8 ) — Other (82.7 ) 0.5 Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities (499.7 ) (381.4 ) Cash flows from financing activities Dividends paid (192.7 ) (188.4 ) Payments for purchases of treasury stock (306.8 ) (375.3 ) Payments on debt and borrowings (5.8 ) (3.4 ) Proceeds on debt and borrowings — 863.7 Other (0.9 ) (11.0 ) Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities (506.2 ) 285.6 Effect of foreign exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents 22.8 (20.4 ) Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (355.5 ) 778.4 Balance at beginning of year 969.3 868.9 Balance at end of period $ 613.8 $ 1,647.3 Article content SUMMARIZED SEGMENT RESULTS (hectoliter volume and $ in millions) (Unaudited) Americas Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) Net sales (1) $ 2,504.8 $ 2,575.9 (2.8 ) $ (3.5 ) (2.6 ) $ 4,386.6 $ 4,721.3 (7.1 ) $ (19.4 ) (6.7 ) COGS (1)(2) $ (1,468.4 ) $ (1,525.7 ) 3.8 $ 2.4 3.6 $ (2,638.3 ) $ (2,841.2 ) 7.1 $ 12.5 6.7 MG&A $ (526.4 ) $ (560.7 ) 6.1 $ 1.0 5.9 $ (1,040.7 ) $ (1,067.4 ) 2.5 $ 7.1 1.8 Income (loss) before income taxes $ 538.2 $ 487.1 10.5 $ 0.5 10.4 $ 747.5 $ 807.7 (7.5 ) $ 0.3 (7.5 ) Underlying income (loss) before income taxes (3) $ 514.2 $ 487.4 5.5 $ 0.5 5.4 $ 717.0 $ 808.5 (11.3 ) $ 0.3 (11.4 ) Financial volume (1)(4) 15.307 16.396 (6.6 ) 27.049 30.306 (10.7 ) Brand volume 15.038 15.670 (4.0 ) 26.969 28.561 (5.6 ) EMEA&APAC Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) Net sales (1) $ 703.9 $ 683.3 3.0 $ 36.3 (2.3 ) $ 1,131.2 $ 1,138.0 (0.6 ) $ 31.1 (3.3 ) COGS (1)(2) $ (465.4 ) $ (431.9 ) (7.8 ) $ (23.7 ) (2.3 ) $ (772.4 ) $ (753.5 ) (2.5 ) $ (19.5 ) 0.1 MG&A $ (166.7 ) $ (167.8 ) 0.7 $ (8.3 ) 5.6 $ (305.6 ) $ (315.7 ) 3.2 $ (5.7 ) 5.0 Income (loss) before income taxes $ 64.8 $ 81.2 (20.2 ) $ 5.4 (26.8 ) $ 45.6 $ 70.2 (35.0 ) $ 7.4 (45.6 ) Underlying income (loss) before income taxes (3) $ 72.4 $ 81.0 (10.6 ) $ 5.9 (17.9 ) $ 53.2 $ 63.7 (16.5 ) $ 7.9 (28.9 ) Financial volume (1)(4) 5.564 6.037 (7.8 ) 9.233 10.101 (8.6 ) Brand volume 5.574 6.045 (7.8 ) 9.190 10.053 (8.6 ) Unallocated & Eliminations Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) Net sales $ (7.9 ) $ (6.9 ) (14.5 ) $ — (14.5 ) $ (12.9 ) $ (10.6 ) (21.7 ) — (21.7 ) COGS (2) $ 14.9 $ 35.2 (57.7 ) $ — (57.7 ) $ 38.6 $ 39.4 (2.0 ) $ (0.2 ) (1.5 ) Income (loss) before income taxes $ (48.1 ) $ (8.4 ) (472.6 ) $ (2.0 ) (448.8 ) $ (81.9 ) $ (52.6 ) (55.7 ) $ (3.6 ) (48.9 ) Underlying income (loss) before income taxes (3) $ (55.1 ) $ (37.2 ) (48.1 ) $ (2.0 ) (42.7 ) $ (107.6 ) $ (82.2 ) (30.9 ) $ (3.4 ) (26.8 ) Financial volume (0.001 ) (0.003 ) N/M (0.003 ) (0.003 ) N/M Consolidated Q2 2025 Q2 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) YTD 2025 YTD 2024 Reported % Change FX Impact Constant Currency % Change (3) Net sales $ 3,200.8 $ 3,252.3 (1.6 ) $ 32.8 (2.6 ) $ 5,504.9 $ 5,848.7 (5.9 ) $ 11.7 (6.1 ) COGS $ (1,918.9 ) $ (1,922.4 ) 0.2 $ (21.3 ) 1.3 $ (3,372.1 ) $ (3,555.3 ) 5.2 $ (7.2 ) 5.4 MG&A $ (693.1 ) $ (728.5 ) 4.9 $ (7.3 ) 5.9 $ (1,346.3 ) $ (1,383.1 ) 2.7 $ 1.4 2.6 Income (loss) before income taxes $ 554.9 $ 559.9 (0.9 ) $ 3.9 (1.6 ) $ 711.2 $ 825.3 (13.8 ) $ 4.1 (14.3 ) Underlying income (loss) before income taxes (3) $ 531.5 $ 531.2 0.1 $ 4.4 (0.8 ) $ 662.6 $ 790.0 (16.1 ) $ 4.8 (16.7 ) Financial volume (4) 20.870 22.430 (7.0 ) 36.279 40.404 (10.2 ) Brand volume 20.612 21.715 (5.1 ) 36.159 38.614 (6.4 ) N/M = not meaningful The reported percent change and the constant currency percent change in the above table are presented as (unfavorable) favorable. Article content (1) Includes gross inter-segment volumes, sales and purchases, which are eliminated in the consolidated totals. (2) The unrealized changes in fair value on our commodity swaps, which are economic hedges, are recorded as COGS within Unallocated. As the exposure we are managing is realized, we reclassify the gain or loss to the segment in which the underlying exposure resides, allowing our segments to realize the economic effects of the derivative without the resulting unrealized mark-to-market volatility. (3) Represents income (loss) before taxes adjusted for non-GAAP items. See the Non-GAAP Measures and Reconciliations section for definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures including constant currency. (4) Financial volume in hectoliters for the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments excludes royalty volume of 0.693 million hectoliters and 0.336 million hectoliters, respectively, for the three months ended June 30, 2025 and excludes royalty volume of 0.578 million hectoliters and 0.325 million hectoliters, respectively, for the three months ended June 30, 2024. Financial volume in hectoliters for the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments excludes royalty volume of 1.366 million hectoliters and 0.556 million hectoliters, respectively, for the six months ended June 30, 2025 and excludes royalty volume of 1.169 million hectoliters and 0.543 million hectoliters respectively, for the six months ended June 30, 2024. Article content WORLDWIDE AND SEGMENT BRAND AND FINANCIAL VOLUME (in millions of hectoliters) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended Americas June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Change Financial Volume 15.307 16.396 (6.6 )% Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume (0.415 ) (0.930 ) (55.4 )% Royalty volume 0.693 0.578 19.9 % Sales-To-Wholesaler to Sales-To-Retail adjustment and other (1) (0.547 ) (0.374 ) 46.3 % Total Americas Brand Volume 15.038 15.670 (4.0 )% EMEA&APAC June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Change Financial Volume 5.564 6.037 (7.8 )% Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume (0.326 ) (0.317 ) 2.8 % Royalty volume 0.336 0.325 3.4 % Total EMEA&APAC Brand Volume 5.574 6.045 (7.8 )% Consolidated June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Change Financial Volume 20.870 22.430 (7.0 )% Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume (0.741 ) (1.247 ) (40.6 )% Royalty volume 1.029 0.903 14.0 % Sales-To-Wholesaler to Sales-To-Retail adjustment and other (0.546 ) (0.371 ) 47.2 % Total Worldwide Brand Volume 20.612 21.715 (5.1 )% Article content For the Six Months Ended Americas June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Change Financial Volume 27.049 30.306 (10.7 )% Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume (0.800 ) (1.800 ) (55.6 )% Royalty volume 1.366 1.169 16.9 % Sales-To-Wholesaler to Sales-To-Retail adjustment and other (1) (0.646 ) (1.114 ) (42.0 )% Total Americas Brand Volume 26.969 28.561 (5.6 )% EMEA&APAC June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Change Financial Volume 9.233 10.101 (8.6 )% Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume (0.599 ) (0.591 ) 1.4 % Royalty volume 0.556 0.543 2.4 % Total EMEA&APAC Brand Volume 9.190 10.053 (8.6 )% Consolidated June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 Change Financial Volume 36.279 40.404 (10.2 )% Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume (1.399 ) (2.391 ) (41.5 )% Royalty volume 1.922 1.712 12.3 % Sales-To-Wholesaler to Sales-To-Retail adjustment and other (0.643 ) (1.111 ) (42.1 )% Total Worldwide Brand Volume 36.159 38.614 (6.4 )% Article content (1) Includes gross inter-segment volumes which are eliminated in the consolidated totals. Article content Worldwide brand volume (or 'brand volume' when discussed by segment) reflects owned or actively managed brands sold to unrelated external customers within our geographic markets (net of returns and allowances), royalty volume and our proportionate share of equity investment worldwide brand volume calculated consistently with MCBC owned volume. Financial volume represents owned or actively managed brands sold to unrelated external customers within our geographical markets, net of returns and allowances as well as contract brewing, wholesale non-owned brand volume and company-owned distribution volume. Contract brewing and wholesale/factored volume is included within financial volume, but is removed from worldwide brand volume, as this is non-owned volume for which we do not directly control performance. Factored volume in our EMEA&APAC segment represents the distribution of beer, wine, spirits and other products owned and produced by other companies to the on-premise channel such as bars and restaurants, which is a common arrangement in the U.K. Royalty volume consists of our brands produced and sold by third parties under various license and contract brewing agreements and, because this is owned volume, it is included in worldwide brand volume. Our worldwide brand volume definition also includes an adjustment from Sales-to-Wholesaler ('STW') volume to Sales-to-Retailer ('STR') volume. We believe the brand volume metric is important because, unlike financial volume and STWs, it provides the closest indication of the performance of our brands in relation to market and competitor sales trends. Article content We also utilize net sales per hectoliter and COGS per hectoliter, as well as the year over year changes in these metrics, as key metrics for analyzing our results. These metrics are calculated as net sales and COGS per our unaudited condensed consolidated statements of operations divided by financial volume for the respective period. We believe these metrics are important and useful for investors and management because it provides an indication of the trends of price and sales mix on our net sales and the trends of sales mix and other cost impacts on our COGS. Article content Use of Non-GAAP Measures Article content In addition to financial measures presented on the basis of accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. ('U.S. GAAP'), we also use non-GAAP financial measures, as listed and defined below, for operational and financial decision making and to assess Company and segment business performance. These non-GAAP measures should be viewed as supplements to (not substitutes for) our results of operations presented under U.S. GAAP. We have provided reconciliations of all historical non-GAAP measures to their nearest U.S. GAAP measure and have consistently applied the adjustments within our reconciliations in arriving at each non-GAAP measure. Article content Our management uses these metrics to assist in comparing performance from period to period on a consistent basis; as a measure for planning and forecasting overall expectations and for evaluating actual results against such expectations; in communications with the Board of Directors, stockholders, analysts and investors concerning our financial performance; as useful comparisons to the performance of our competitors; and as metrics of certain management incentive compensation calculations. We believe these measures are used by, and are useful to, investors and other users of our financial statements in evaluating our operating performance. Article content Underlying Income (Loss) before Income Taxes (Closest GAAP Metric: Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes) – Measure of the Company's or segment's income (loss) before income taxes excluding the impact of certain non-GAAP adjustment items from our U.S. GAAP financial statements. Non-GAAP adjustment items include goodwill and other intangible and tangible asset impairments, certain restructuring and integration related costs, unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses, adjustments to the redemption value of mandatorily redeemable noncontrolling interests, potential or incurred losses related to certain litigation accruals and settlements, impacts of settlement charges related to annuity purchases and gains and losses on sales of non-operating assets, among other items included in our U.S. GAAP results that warrant adjustment to arrive at non-GAAP results. We consider these items to be necessary adjustments for purposes of evaluating our ongoing business performance and are often considered non-recurring. Such adjustments are subjective, involve significant management judgment and can vary substantially from company to company. Underlying COGS (Closest GAAP Metric: COGS) – Measure of the Company's COGS adjusted to exclude non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above). Non-GAAP adjustment items include, among other items, unrealized mark-to-market gains and losses on our commodity derivative instruments, which are economic hedges, and are recorded through COGS within Unallocated. As the exposure we are managing is realized, we reclassify the gain or loss to the segment in which the underlying exposure resides, allowing our segments to realize the economic effects of the derivatives without the resulting unrealized mark-to-market volatility. We also use underlying COGS per hectoliter, as well as the year over year change in such metric, as a key metric for analyzing our results. This metric is calculated as underlying COGS divided by financial volume for the respective period. Article content Underlying MG&A (Closest GAAP Metric: MG&A) – Measure of the Company's MG&A expense excluding the impact of certain non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above). Underlying net interest income (expense), net (Closest GAAP Metric: Interest income (expense), net) – Measure of the Company's net interest expense adjusted to exclude adjustments to the redemption value of mandatorily redeemable noncontrolling interests. Underlying net income (loss) attributable to MCBC (Closest GAAP Metric: Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC) – Measure of net income (loss) attributable to MCBC excluding the impact of income (loss) before income tax non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above), adjustments to the carrying value of redeemable noncontrolling interests resulting from subsequent changes in the redemption value of such interests, the related tax effects of non-GAAP adjustment items and certain other discrete tax items. Underlying net income (loss) attributable to MCBC per diluted share (also referred to as Underlying Diluted Earnings per Share) (Closest GAAP Metric: Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC per diluted share) – Measure of underlying net income (loss) attributable to MCBC (as defined above) per diluted share. If applicable, a reported net loss attributable to MCBC per diluted share is calculated using the basic share count due to dilutive shares being antidilutive. If underlying net income (loss) attributable to MCBC becomes income excluding the impact of our non-GAAP adjustment items, we include the incremental dilutive shares, using the treasury stock method, into the dilutive shares outstanding. Underlying effective tax rate (Closest GAAP Metric: Effective Tax Rate) – Measure of the Company's effective tax rate excluding the related tax impact of pre-tax non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above) and certain other discrete tax items. Discrete tax items include certain significant tax audit and prior year reserve adjustments, impact of significant tax legislation and tax rate changes and significant non-recurring and period specific tax items. Underlying free cash flow (Closest GAAP Metric: Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Operating Activities) – Measure of the Company's operating cash flow calculated as Net Cash Provided by (Used In) Operating Activities less Additions to property, plant and equipment and excluding the pre-tax cash flow impact of certain non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above). We consider underlying free cash flow an important measure of our ability to generate cash, grow our business and enhance shareholder value, driven by core operations and after adjusting for non-GAAP adjustment items, which can vary substantially from company to company depending upon accounting methods, book value of assets and capital structure. Underlying depreciation and amortization (Closest GAAP Metric: Depreciation & Amortization) – Measure of the Company's depreciation and amortization excluding the impact of non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above). These adjustments primarily consist of accelerated depreciation or amortization taken related to the Company's strategic exit or restructuring activities. Net debt and net debt to underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ('underlying EBITDA') (Closest GAAP Metrics: Cash, Debt, & Net Income (Loss)) – Measure of the Company's leverage calculated as net debt (defined as current portion of long-term debt and short-term borrowings plus long-term debt less cash and cash equivalents) divided by the trailing twelve month underlying EBITDA. Underlying EBITDA is calculated as Net income (loss) excluding Interest expense (income), net, Income tax expense (benefit), depreciation and amortization and the impact of non-GAAP adjustment items (as defined above). Effective January 1, 2025, on a prospective basis, Underlying EBITDA excludes amortization of cloud-based software implementation costs. This measure is not the same as the Company's maximum leverage ratio as defined under its revolving credit facility, which allows for other adjustments in the calculation of net debt to EBITDA. Constant currency – Constant currency is a non-GAAP measure utilized to measure performance, excluding the impact of translational and certain transactional foreign currency movements, and is intended to be indicative of results in local currency. As we operate in various foreign countries where the local currency may strengthen or weaken significantly versus the U.S. dollar or other currencies used in operations, we utilize a constant currency measure as an additional metric to evaluate the underlying performance of each business without consideration of foreign currency movements. We present all percentage changes for net sales, underlying COGS, underlying MG&A and underlying income (loss) before income taxes in constant currency and calculate the impact of foreign exchange by translating our current period local currency results (that also include the impact of the comparable prior period currency hedging activities) at the average exchange rates during the respective period throughout the year used to translate the financial statements in the comparable prior year period. The result is the current period results in U.S. dollars, as if foreign exchange rates had not changed from the prior year period. Additionally, we exclude any transactional foreign currency impacts, reported within the other non-operating income (expense), net line item, from our current period results. Article content Our guidance or long-term targets for any of the measures noted above are also non-GAAP financial measures that exclude or otherwise have been adjusted for non-GAAP adjustment items from our U.S. GAAP financial statements. When we provide guidance for any of the various non-GAAP metrics described above, we do not provide reconciliations of the U.S. GAAP measures as we are unable to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual impact of the non-GAAP adjustment items. By their very nature, non-GAAP adjustment items are difficult to anticipate with precision because they are generally associated with unexpected and unplanned events that impact our Company and its financial results. Therefore, we are unable to provide a reconciliation of these measures without unreasonable efforts. Article content Reconciliation by Line Item (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Reported (U.S. GAAP) $ (1,918.9 ) $ (693.1 ) $ 554.9 $ 428.7 $ 2.13 Non-GAAP Adjustments (pre-tax) Restructuring — — 8.6 8.6 0.04 (Gains) losses on disposals and other — — 0.6 0.6 — Unrealized mark-to-market (gains) losses (7.0 ) — (7.0 ) (7.0 ) (0.03 ) Other items (1) — (0.1 ) (25.6 ) (25.6 ) (0.13 ) Tax effects of income before income tax non-GAAP adjustments and discrete tax items — — — 6.0 0.03 Adjustment for redeemable noncontrolling interest recorded to the redemption value — — — 1.0 — Underlying (Non-GAAP) $ (1,925.9 ) $ (693.2 ) $ 531.5 $ 412.3 $ 2.05 Article content (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 Cost of goods sold Marketing, general and administrative expenses Income (loss) before income taxes Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC per diluted share Reported (U.S. GAAP) $ (1,922.4 ) $ (728.5 ) $ 559.9 $ 427.0 $ 2.03 Non-GAAP Adjustments (pre-tax) Restructuring — — (0.2 ) (0.2 ) — (Gains) losses on disposals and other — — 0.1 0.1 — Unrealized mark-to-market (gains) losses (28.8 ) — (28.8 ) (28.8 ) (0.14 ) Other items — 0.4 0.2 0.2 — Tax effects of income before income tax non-GAAP adjustments and discrete tax items — — — 5.9 0.03 Underlying (Non-GAAP) $ (1,951.2 ) $ (728.1 ) $ 531.2 $ 404.2 $ 1.92 Article content (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 Cost of goods sold Marketing, general and administrative expenses Income (loss) before income taxes Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC Diluted earnings per share Reported (U.S. GAAP) $ (3,372.1 ) $ (1,346.3 ) $ 711.2 $ 549.7 $ 2.71 Non-GAAP adjustments (pre-tax) Restructuring (2) — — 28.0 28.0 0.14 (Gains) losses on disposals and other — — 0.6 0.6 — Unrealized mark-to-market (gains) losses (25.7 ) — (25.7 ) (25.7 ) (0.13 ) Other items (1) — (0.2 ) (51.5 ) (51.5 ) (0.25 ) Tax effects of income before income tax non-GAAP adjustments and discrete tax items — — — 11.9 0.06 Adjustment for redeemable noncontrolling interest recorded to the redemption value — — — 1.0 — Underlying (Non-GAAP) $ (3,397.8 ) $ (1,346.5 ) $ 662.6 $ 514.0 $ 2.54 Article content (In millions, except per share data) (Unaudited) For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 Cost of goods sold Marketing, general and administrative expenses Income (loss) before income taxes Net income (loss) attributable to MCBC Diluted earnings per share Reported (U.S. GAAP) $ (3,555.3 ) $ (1,383.1 ) $ 825.3 $ 634.8 $ 2.99 Non-GAAP adjustments (pre-tax) Restructuring — — (1.1 ) (1.1 ) (0.01 ) (Gains) losses on disposals and other — — (5.3 ) (5.3 ) (0.02 ) Unrealized mark-to-market (gains) losses (29.6 ) — (29.6 ) (29.6 ) (0.14 ) Other items — 0.9 0.7 0.7 — Tax effects of income before income tax non-GAAP adjustments and discrete tax items — — — 7.5 0.04 Underlying (Non-GAAP) $ (3,584.9 ) $ (1,382.2 ) $ 790.0 $ 607.0 $ 2.86 Article content (1) During the first quarter of 2025, we made an investment in Fevertree Drinks plc and hold a minority interest. As a result, for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, we recorded an unrealized fair value adjustment of $25.5 million and $51.2 million, respectively. (2) During the third quarter of 2024, we made the decision to wind down or sell certain U.S. craft businesses and related facilities within the Americas segment. As a result, we recorded employee-related and asset abandonment charges, including accelerated depreciation in excess of normal depreciation of $17.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025. Article content Reconciliation to Underlying (Non-GAAP) Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes by Segment (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 Americas EMEA&APAC Unallocated Consolidated U.S. GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes $ 538.2 $ 64.8 $ (48.1 ) $ 554.9 Cost of goods sold (1) — — (7.0 ) (7.0 ) Marketing, general & administrative (0.1 ) — — (0.1 ) Other non-GAAP adjustment items (2) (23.9 ) 7.6 — (16.3 ) Total non-GAAP adjustment items $ (24.0 ) $ 7.6 $ (7.0 ) $ (23.4 ) Underlying (Non-GAAP) income (loss) before income taxes $ 514.2 $ 72.4 $ (55.1 ) $ 531.5 Article content (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 Americas EMEA&APAC Unallocated Consolidated U.S. GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes $ 487.1 $ 81.2 $ (8.4 ) $ 559.9 Cost of goods sold (1) — — (28.8 ) (28.8 ) Marketing, general & administrative 0.5 0 (0.1 ) — 0.4 Other non-GAAP adjustment items (2) (0.2 ) (0.1 ) — (0.3 ) Total non-GAAP adjustment items $ 0.3 $ (0.2 ) $ (28.8 ) $ (28.7 ) Underlying (Non-GAAP) income (loss) before income taxes $ 487.4 $ 81.0 $ (37.2 ) $ 531.2 Article content (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 Americas EMEA&APAC Unallocated Consolidated U.S. GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes $ 747.5 $ 45.6 $ (81.9 ) $ 711.2 Cost of goods sold (1) — — (25.7 ) (25.7 ) Marketing, general & administrative (0.2 ) — — (0.2 ) Other non-GAAP adjustment items (2) (30.3 ) 7.6 — (22.7 ) Total non-GAAP adjustment items $ (30.5 ) $ 7.6 $ (25.7 ) $ (48.6 ) Underlying (Non-GAAP) income (loss) before income taxes $ 717.0 $ 53.2 $ (107.6 ) $ 662.6 Article content (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 Americas EMEA&APAC Unallocated Consolidated U.S. GAAP Income (loss) before income taxes $ 807.7 $ 70.2 $ (52.6 ) $ 825.3 Cost of goods sold (1) — — (29.6 ) (29.6 ) Marketing, general & administrative 1.0 (0.1 ) — 0.9 Other non-GAAP adjustment items (2) (0.2 ) (6.4 ) — (6.6 ) Total non-GAAP adjustment items $ 0.8 $ (6.5 ) $ (29.6 ) $ (35.3 ) Underlying (Non-GAAP) income (loss) before income taxes $ 808.5 $ 63.7 $ (82.2 ) $ 790.0 Article content (1) Reflects changes in our mark-to-market positions on our derivative hedges recorded as COGS within Unallocated. As the exposure we are managing is realized, we reclassify the gain or loss to the segment in which the underlying exposure resides, allowing our segments to realize the economic effects of the derivative without the resulting unrealized mark-to-market volatility. (2) See the Reconciliations by Line Item table for further information on our non-GAAP adjustments. Article content Underlying (Non-GAAP) Depreciation and Amortization Reconciliation (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 U.S. GAAP depreciation and amortization $ 170.1 $ 167.7 $ 350.4 $ 336.7 Accelerated depreciation (1) — — (17.9 ) — Underlying (Non-GAAP) depreciation and amortization $ 170.1 $ 167.7 $ 332.5 $ 336.7 Article content (1) During the third quarter of 2024, we made the decision to wind down or sell certain U.S. craft businesses and related facilities within the Americas segment. As a result, we recorded employee-related and asset abandonment charges, including accelerated depreciation in excess of normal depreciation of $17.9 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025. Article content Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 U.S. GAAP Effective Tax Rate 24 % 24 % Tax effect of non-GAAP adjustment items and discrete tax items (1) (1 %) — % Underlying (Non-GAAP) Effective Tax Rate 23 % 24 % Article content (1) Adjustments related to the tax effect of non-GAAP adjustment items, as well as certain discrete tax items excluded from our underlying effective tax rate. Discrete tax items include certain significant tax audit and prior year reserve adjustments, impact of significant tax legislation and tax rate changes and significant non-recurring and period specific tax items. Article content Underlying (Non-GAAP) Free Cash Flow (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Six Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 U.S. GAAP Net Cash Provided by (Used In) Operating Activities $ 627.6 $ 894.6 Additions to property, plant and equipment, net (1) (400.6 ) (392.2 ) Cash impact of non-GAAP adjustment items (2) 66.5 2.6 Underlying (Non-GAAP) Free Cash Flow $ 293.5 $ 505.0 Article content (1) Included in net cash provided by (used in) investing activities. (2) Included in net cash provided by (used in) operating activities and reflects the $60.6 million payment as final resolution of the Keystone litigation case paid during the three months ended March 31, 2025. Additionally, includes costs paid for restructuring activities for the six months ended June 30, 2025 and June 30, 2024. Article content Net Debt and Net Debt to Underlying (Non-GAAP) EBITDA Ratio (In millions except net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio) (Unaudited) As of June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 U.S. GAAP Current portion of long-term debt and short-term borrowings $ 62.3 $ 894.2 Add: Long-term debt 6,257.0 6,161.5 Less: Cash and cash equivalents 613.8 1,647.3 Net debt $ 5,705.5 $ 5,408.4 Q2 Underlying EBITDA $ 763.9 750.1 Q1 Underlying EBITDA 353.3 476.2 Q4 Underlying EBITDA 558.5 566.1 Q3 Underlying EBITDA 692.3 742.9 Non-GAAP Underlying EBITDA (1) $ 2,368.0 $ 2,535.3 Net debt to underlying (Non-GAAP) EBITDA ratio 2.41 2.13 Article content (1) Represents underlying EBITDA on a trailing twelve month basis. Article content Underlying (Non-GAAP) EBITDA Reconciliation (In millions) (Unaudited) For the Three Months Ended June 30, 2025 June 30, 2024 U.S. GAAP Net income (loss) 424.3 425.3 Interest expense (income), net 58.5 51.2 Income tax expense (benefit) 130.6 134.6 Depreciation and amortization 173.9 167.7 Non-GAAP adjustments to arrive at underlying EBITDA (1) (23.4 ) (28.7 ) Underlying (Non-GAAP) EBITDA $ 763.9 $ 750.1 Article content (1) Includes pre-tax non-GAAP adjustments to Net income (loss) as described in other non-GAAP reconciliation tables above excluding non-GAAP adjustments to interest expense (income), net and depreciation and amortization (including amortization of cloud-based software implementation costs). See the (i) Reconciliations to Nearest U.S. GAAP Measures by Line Item, (ii) Underlying Depreciation and Amortization Reconciliation and (iii) Underlying Net Interest Income (Expense), net Reconciliation tables for further information on our non-GAAP adjustments. Article content Article content Article content Article content View source version on Article content Article content Article content Contacts Article content Investor Relations Article content Article content Traci Mangini, (415) 308-0151 Article content News Media Article content Article content Rachel Gellman Johnson, (314) 452-9673 Article content Article content Article content


Globe and Mail
7 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights Tesla, General Motors, Ford and Stellantis
For Immediate Release Chicago, IL – August 5, 2025 – announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: Tesla TSLA, General Motors GM, Ford F and Stellantis STLA. Here are highlights from Monday's Analyst Blog: Tesla's Regulatory Credit Cash Cow Is Fading Fast: Why It Matters For years, Tesla has made big money not just from selling electric vehicles (EVs), but also from selling regulatory credits to other automakers. These credits have aided Tesla's overall margins, even when car sales were under pressure. But that extra boost is shrinking fast now. And if the trend continues, it could just worsen things for the company. Tesla has been selling billions of dollars' worth of regulatory credits to legacy automakers who needed them to offset their gas-guzzling vehicle fleets and avoid fines. The revenues—more than $10.6 billion since 2019—have been a critical boost to Tesla's profits, especially during times when the core business struggled to stay in the black. In Q2'25, Tesla reported $439 million in regulatory credit revenues. On the surface, that still looks solid. But the trend tells a different story. Credit sales have fallen sharply from $890 million in Q2'24, marking a nearly 50% drop in just a year. And it's not a blip—it's a steady slide. From $739 million in Q3'24 to $692 million in Q4'24, then $595 million in Q1'25—and now $439 million. Policy Shifts and EV Competition Add Pressure Last month, President Trump's tax and spending bill officially scrapped the penalties for automakers failing to meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. That's a game-changer. Automakers who previously bought credits from Tesla to avoid hefty fines—over $1.1 billion worth from 2011 to 2020—now have no reason to do so. The penalty is effectively gone. That removes the key incentive behind Tesla's regulatory credit windfall. And it couldn't come at a worse time. Tesla is already facing a slump in deliveries and profits. The company recently posted two straight quarters of delivery declines. Without credit sales to somewhat plug the gap, Tesla's core business will face more pressure. Some automakers may still have long-term credit purchase agreements with Tesla, but those contracts may be renegotiated—or even canceled—early. In fact, the credit revenues could disappear by next year. And it's not just the policy shift. Many legacy automakers like General Motors, Ford and Stellantis are also shifting their gears to electric. As they scale up their EV output and reduce emissions, they need fewer regulatory credits. A Fading Lifeline Tesla Can't Ignore While headlines are busy tracking CEO Elon Musk's political battles or the loss of $7,500 EV buyer tax credits, this regulatory credit risk of Tesla has not gotten much attention. But the risk is real—and growing. Regulatory credits have quietly propped up Tesla's profits for years. But the safety net could be vanishing. Unless Tesla can make up for the loss with stronger sales, tighter cost controls or big wins in robotaxis, the road ahead could get bumpier. The Zacks Rundown for Tesla Shares of Tesla have lost around 20% over the past six months compared with the industry's decline of 17%. Meanwhile, shares of Ford and General Motors are up 8% and 10%, respectively, while Stellantis is down 32% during the same timeframe. From a valuation standpoint, TSLA trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 9.5, way above the industry. It carries a Value Score of D. Meanwhile, General Motors trades at a forward sales multiple of 0.28, Ford at 0.27 and Stellantis at 0.14. Tesla stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see Free: Instant Access to Zacks' Market-Crushing Strategies Since 2000, our top stock-picking strategies have blown away the S&P's +7.7% average gain per year. Amazingly, they soared with average gains of +48.4%, +50.2% and +56.7% per year. Today you can tap into those powerful strategies – and the high-potential stocks they uncover – free. No strings attached. Get all the details here >> Zacks Investment Research 800-767-3771 ext. 9339 support@ Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Only $1 to See All Zacks' Buys and Sells We're not kidding. Several years ago, we shocked our members by offering them 30-day access to all our picks for the total sum of only $1. No obligation to spend another cent. Thousands have taken advantage of this opportunity. Thousands did not - they thought there must be a catch. Yes, we do have a reason. We want you to get acquainted with our portfolio services like Surprise Trader, Stocks Under $10, Technology Innovators, and more, that closed 256 positions with double- and triple-digit gains in 2024 alone. See Stocks Now >> Ford Motor Company (F): Free Stock Analysis Report General Motors Company (GM): Free Stock Analysis Report Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report Stellantis N.V. (STLA): Free Stock Analysis Report