Turkey's deepening role in Bangladesh adds a new layer to India's security calculus

Time of India

14 hours ago

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As Turkey deepens itsTurkey South Asia strategy, India Turkey rivalry India rare earth security , Ankara Islamist influence Bangladeshmilitary, ideological and economic footprint in South Asia, particularly in Bangladesh, it is opening a new and under-reported front in its long-simmering rivalry with India.Though not a direct military adversary, Ankara's convergence with Pakistan and increasing engagement in India's eastern neighbourhood is beginning to look like a coherent anti-India strategy, built on shared ideological sympathies, defence cooperation and soft-power projection.At the centre of India's concern is a subtle but strategic shift in Turkey's foreign policy posture under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one that now pairs military-industrial ambition with pan-Islamist ideology and is actively shaping alignments in South Asia.Turkey's Defence Industry Agency chief Haluk Görgün is scheduled to visit Dhaka on July 8, according to The Economic Times.Görgün will meet the Chief Adviser of the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, and all three service chiefs of the Bangladeshi armed forces. The visit is intended to finalise plans for setting up two Turkish-backed defence industrial zones in Chittagong and Narayanganj, bringing Ankara closer to India's eastern flank than ever before.The groundwork for this collaboration has already been laid.As per ET, Bangladesh Investment Development Authority (BIDA) chief Chowdhury Ashik Mahmud Bin Harun visited Turkey earlier this year, followed by Foreign Affairs Adviser Md Touhid Hossain's trip to the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in April, where he described aerospace cooperation with Turkey as a "win-win" opportunity.While Turkey has no historical stake in the Bay of Bengal region, this defence-industrial engagement marks its first substantive hard-power play in India's immediate neighbourhood.What makes Turkey's growing presence more alarming for India is its reported support for Islamist outfits in Bangladesh, particularly Jamaat-e-Islami. Indian intelligence agencies, as reported by Firstpost and News18, believe that Turkish entities, some with links to its intelligence apparatus, have funded the renovation of Jamaat offices in Dhaka and facilitated visits by Islamist leaders to Turkish arms facilities.These activities go beyond soft diplomacy. Indian officials say Ankara's strategy is a fusion of ideological influence and covert defence networking, especially through intermediaries affiliated with banned or radicalised organisations.Security officials told News18 that such visits are designed not just for exposure, but potentially to facilitate procurement of Turkish defence tech, possibly including drones and surveillance equipment.This convergence of ideology and capability has raised red flags in Indian intelligence circles, as per Firstpost.At the core of the deepening India–Turkey estrangement lies President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's increasingly assertive pan-Islamist foreign policy, which has frequently taken aim at India, especially over the Kashmir issue.As per TOI, between 2019 and 2022, India–Turkey relations hit their lowest point, marked by an intense phase of diplomatic hostility and media warfare. The downturn was triggered by India's revocation of Jammu and Kashmir's special constitutional status, a move that drew sharp criticism from Ankara.In response, both countries engaged in sustained narrative offensives, with official statements and media outlets on each side amplifying opposing positions on Kashmir and regional geopolitics.Ankara has consistently aligned itself with Pakistan's position on Jammu and Kashmir, raising the matter at the United Nations and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and positioning itself as a rhetorical and ideological ally of Islamabad.But Turkey's challenge is no longer limited to political theatre.According to Hindustan Times, multiple drones used in cross-border attacks on Indian territory have been traced to Turkish origin, a development that has forced Indian defence planners to reassess Ankara's evolving role in the regional security architecture.Turkey's signature drone exports, once celebrated as battlefield game-changers from Ukraine to Libya, suffered a dramatic setback during India's Operation Sindoor in May 2025. According to The Times of India, Indian air defences intercepted every Turkish-origin drone launched by Pakistan during the offensive. This included Bayraktar TB2s, Byker YIHA III kamikaze drones, and Songatri and eYatri micro-drones.Using its indigenously developed Akashteer air defence system, India neutralised 300–400 drones mid-air, many of them before they even breached Indian airspace.A Pakistani source told Reuters that these drones were intended to 'provide cover for manned aircraft and artillery strikes,' but the mission collapsed as India's layered defences, from legacy L70 guns to modern Akashteer radar and missile systems, activated with full force.Turkey's efforts to export its drone diplomacy to South Asia, coupled with its ideological posturing, hihglight a hybrid threat: one that mixes religious soft power with technological hard power and increasingly positions Ankara as an active disruptor of India's regional security calculus.Turkey's military adventurism and embrace of non-Western alliances are not only reshaping its relationship with India, but also with NATO. As The Diplomat reported, Ankara's 2019 decision to acquire Russia's S-400 missile system triggered its suspension from the US-led F-35 fighter jet programme.This deepened Turkey's strategic isolation from the West while nudging it closer to states like Pakistan and China.As per Eurasian Times, India has used this window to build counterbalances. Following Turkey and Pakistan's open support for Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, India supplied Armenia with Akash missile systems and ramped up defence ties with Iran, Greece, and Cyprus, states long at odds with Turkey.In another such instance, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's stop in Cyprus, the first by an Indian PM in over two decades, may appear routine en route to the G7 Summit, but it carries strategic undertones.Coming weeks after heightened tensions with Pakistan, the visit subtly realigns India in the eastern Mediterranean and sends a clear message to Ankara over its growing closeness to Islamabad.Cyprus, divided since Turkey's 1974 military intervention, remains a geopolitical flashpoint. While the northern third is under Turkish control and claims independence as the TRNC, it is recognised only by Turkey. The Republic of Cyprus, a full EU member, governs the internationally recognised southern two-thirds of the island.As per ET, India has long supported Cyprus's territorial integrity, placing it at odds with Ankara, especially as Turkey continues to back Pakistan on Kashmir. During India's Operation Sindoor, Turkey sided swiftly with Islamabad.In contrast, Cyprus condemned the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack and offered to raise the issue of cross-border terrorism at the EU level, reinforcing its alignment with India on key security concerns.In a development that caught India off guard, Hindustan Times reported sightings of Turkish drones, possibly Bayraktars, along the India–Bangladesh border near Meghalaya.Although unconfirmed, Indian defence officials believe these overflights may have been part of reconnaissance or technology demonstrations to Bangladeshi agencies.Adding fuel to the fire, Muhammad Yunus, Chief Adviser of Bangladesh's interim government, stirred a diplomatic storm during his four-day visit to Beijing by referring to the region as 'landlocked' and positioning Bangladesh as its 'only guardian of the ocean.''The seven states of India, the eastern part of India, are called the seven sisters... They have no way to reach out to the ocean. For Bangladesh, as the only guardian of the ocean in the region, this could be a huge opportunity and an extension of the Chinese economy,' Yunus said, implying that Bangladesh could serve as a strategic gateway for China into India's northeast.'From Bangladesh, you can go anywhere you want. The ocean is our backyard,' he added.India sees this as part of a larger pattern of Turkey embedding itself into the China–Pakistan–Bangladesh framework, operating as a wildcard player that leverages soft power, drones, and ideological platforms to punch above its regional weight.Despite rising geopolitical tensions, India–Turkey trade has remained steady, though modest in scale. According to The Economic Times, India exported goods worth USD 5.2 billion to Turkey during April–February 2024–25, down from USD 6.65 billion in FY 2023–24.This trade accounts for just 1.5% of India's total exports of USD 437 billion.India's main exports to Turkey include mineral fuels and petroleum products (worth around USD 960 million), electrical machinery, auto parts, organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics, rubber, cotton, synthetic fibres, and iron and steel.On the import side, India imported goods worth USD 2.84 billion from Turkey during April–February 2024–25, a decline from USD 3.78 billion in FY 2023–24, and representing only 0.5% of India's total imports of USD 720 billion.Key imports include marble (blocks and slabs), gold, fresh apples (valued at about USD 10 million), vegetables, lime, cement, chemicals, mineral oils (USD 1.81 billion), pearls, and iron and steel.India continues to maintain a trade surplus with Turkey.Meanwhile, people-to-people ties with Turkey remain active. More than 300,000 Indian tourists visited Turkey in 2023, and around 3,000 Indian nationals, including students, currently reside there as of 2024.