Fed on hold – but rate cuts are coming sooner, says expert
"This CPI report gives the Fed exactly what it's been looking for: clear evidence that inflation is cooling in line with its target," he stated.
"They'll stay on hold for now, but they won't be able to justify it for much longer. A cut this year is now not just likely, it's looking increasingly necessary," noted Green.
The May Consumer Price Index showed that core inflation rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with the year-on-year rate edging up slightly to 2.9% from 2.8%. While not a dramatic drop, the consistency of the 0.2% monthly figure is what carries weight with policymakers.
"This is the second time in three months that we've seen the core CPI line up with what the Fed considers acceptable monthly progress," explained Green.
"Markets and the central bank are focused on that monthly trend — and this one points clearly in the right direction," he noted.
Despite the modest rise in the annualized figure, economists and investors alike are honing in on the monthly pace, which is generally viewed as a more accurate gauge of underlying inflation momentum.
"The year-on-year rate can move for all sorts of reasons," noted Green. "What the Fed really wants is reassurance that prices are no longer accelerating dramatically, and this report offers that," he added.
As a result, rate expectations have shifted sharply.
"Markets are now pricing in a much higher probability of a rate cut in September. That's a clear change from just a few weeks ago, when some still feared no cut at all this year," noted Green.
The Fed, he stated, was stuck in a difficult position. "It doesn't want to move too early — but if it waits too long, it risks doing unnecessary damage to the economy," he added.
The combination of restrictive interest rates, slowing inflation, and increasing political pressure makes for a volatile mix heading into the second half of the year.
The deVere CEO also notes that other central banks are already moving.
"The European Central Bank has already cut. Others are expected to follow. If the Fed falls too far behind, that will have major implications for the dollar, capital flows, and investor confidence," he explained.
For investors, he warned that the pace and timing of the Fed's actions could significantly impact asset allocation strategies over the next six months.
"If the Fed cuts too late, risk assets will struggle. If it signals a move too early, inflation expectations could reignite. The balancing act is extremely fine; but today's data gives the Fed a reason to begin preparing the market for action," said the financial expert.
"This is the moment investors could look back on as the shift point. The Fed's next move won't come today, but the countdown has begun. Cuts are coming and the timing may surprise some," he added. -TradeArabia News Service
Copyright 2024 Al Hilal Publishing and Marketing Group Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


The National
3 hours ago
- The National
Trump continues attacks on Powell as White House aides to tour site of latest flashpoint
US President Donald Trump has continued his relentless pressure campaign on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, again calling the board to act as he says chairman Jerome Powell 'just doesn't get it'. 'Our rate should be three points lower than they are, saving us $1 trillion per year (as a country). This stubborn guy at the Fed just doesn't get it – never did, and never will. The board should act, but they don't have the courage to do so!' Mr Trump wrote on the Truth Social media platform. The latest post comes a week before the Federal Reserve 's next meeting, where it is expected to continue its pause on rate cuts. The Fed has held rates steady at 4.25 to 4.50 per cent this year after easing policy by 100 basis points towards the end of 2024, owing to uncertainty surrounding Mr Trump's tariff agenda. Mr Trump has repeatedly called for the Fed to lower rates to help service US debt, a concept known as fiscal dominance. The Fed chairman has maintained a wait-and-see approach towards rates in defiance of Mr Trump's pressure campaign. Public remarks from other Fed officials indicate broad support to keep rates on hold next week, although Fed governor Christopher Waller – a Trump appointee and reported candidate to succeed Mr Powell – previewed a dissent from his colleagues last week by arguing the Fed should lower rates by 25 basis points. As his anger over Mr Powell has increased, Mr Trump has expanded his line of attacks on the Fed chairman. Tensions reached a boiling point last week following reports that Mr Trump indicated to Republicans in Congress he was open to firing the Fed chairman. Mr Trump confirmed he brought up the idea, but said it was unlikely he would try to oust Mr Powell. The most recent flashpoint centres on renovations at the Federal Reserve's headquarters in Washington, which have ballooned to roughly $2.5 billion. White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, who has referred to the project as the 'Taj Mahal on the National Mall', said in a tweet that Trump officials were scheduled to visit the site on Thursday. The Fed released a virtual site visit on its website earlier this week. Mr Powell has linked cost overruns to unforeseen conditions, such as more asbestos than anticipated, contamination in the soil and a higher-than-expected water table. The project was first approved by the Federal Reserve Board in 2017 and is subject to annual budget approval. Still, some believe the White House could be using the Fed renovations as a pretext to fire Mr Powell. White House budget director Russell Vought said Mr Powell has 'grossly mismanaged' the Fed, pointing to the renovation costs. Fed officials can only be fired for cause, which is generally thought to be malfeasance or neglect of duty. The Supreme Court in May signalled that it would side with Mr Powell if Mr Trump were to fire him over a policy dispute. Mr Powell has repeatedly said that he would never resign as Fed chairman before his term ends in May 2026. He has not said if he would continue his role as Fed governor, which runs into 2028. Former PIMCO chief executive Mohamed El Erian broke from other prominent economists on Tuesday by suggesting Mr Powell should voluntarily step down as chairman to protect the Fed. Speaking at the World Bank, Mr El Erian questioned whether Mr Powell would expose the Fed to greater threats if he remained in his position. 'This tension between the President and the chairman of the Fed, if it continues, it will suck in more elements of the Fed,' Mr El Erian said when asked by The National, following a keynote address. Top bankers have defended Mr Powell, however, with JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon last week saying interfering with the Fed 'can have adverse consequences'. Bank of America chief executive Brian Moynihan, Citigroup executive Jane Fraser, Goldman Sachs chief executive David Solomon and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein also came to Mr Powell's defence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg TV that he was 'somewhat surprised' Egyptian-American Mr El Erian had called for Mr Powell's resignation. Mr Bessent also repeated his call to conduct a review of Federal Reserve activities outside monetary policy, telling Bloomberg TV that 'mission creep from the Fed is endangering their independence of monetary policy'. 'An internal review would be a good start. And if the internal review didn't look like it was serious, then maybe there could be an external review,' said the Treasury Secretary. Mr Bessent also said there is 'no rush' to identify Mr Powell's successor as Fed chairman. 'There are a lot of strong candidates, including several who are on the main board and perhaps regional bank presidents,' he said. The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the Fed chairman and the six other members of the Federal Reserve Board, the president of the New York Fed and four of the other 11 regional Fed banks that serve on a rotating basis. Other than Mr Waller, the reported candidates to succeed Mr Powell include National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Mr Bessent himself. The Treasury secretary said there's a 'long, long list' of names to replace Mr Powell.

The National
6 hours ago
- The National
Trump's AI plan seeks to remove regulatory barriers and shuns DEI
President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled a three-pillared strategy that his administration refers to as America's AI Action Plan, after much anticipation from US technology companies. Accelerating artificial intelligence innovation, building AI infrastructure in the US and leading in AI diplomacy are the strategy's three main sections. Mr Trump was expected to speak in greater detail about the AI strategy at an event in Washington later on Wednesday. Like many of Mr Trump's initiatives, his proposal seeks to portray former president Joe Biden's AI strategy as burdensome from a regulatory perspective and full of identity politics and environmental red tape. President Trump's plan directs the National Institute of Standards and Technology to 'revise the AI management framework, eliminating references to diversity, equity and inclusion, misinformation and climate change'. The AI push also looks at issues many experts consider more pertinent to the global AI race. It seeks to streamline the construction permit process for data centres, which are becoming critical to AI breakthroughs. The plan also emphasises exporting 'American AI technologies through full-stack deployment packages and international data centre initiatives led by the Department of Commerce'. That sort of data centre deal is similar to what was unveiled during President Trump's visit to the UAE in May. Then, President Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Trump announced plans for a new 5GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi. If more of those deals come to fruition, it could help the US gain influence as other countries seek to join the race to provide computational power for AI. Hypothetically, it could also give the US a competitive edge over China, which also aims to be a dominant AI player. With his AI Action Plan, Mr Trump is attempting to put the kibosh on local regulatory efforts within the US. State legislative bodies have passed laws to put guardrails on AI in an effort to protect workers from labour disruption. 'Prohibit federal AI funds from going to states with restrictive AI regulations,' reads one of the plan descriptions, also insisting that such prohibitive policies 'respect states' legislative rights'. On a technical level, proponents of open-source AI development are likely to take a victory lap after Mr Trump's plan. It throws support behind open-source and open-weight AI models. Supporters of open-source AI models often say they democratise artificial intelligence, whereas closed-source models only allow for those with access to larger computing infrastructures to develop the technology. Neil Chilson, former chief technologist for the Federal Trade Commission and currently head of artificial intelligence policy at the Abundance Institute, called the AI plan a 'course correction' from the previous policies of the Biden White House. 'We're particularly excited to see the emphasis on removing regulatory barriers to AI adoption and deployment and streamlining of infrastructure permitting,' he said. Over at the Competitive Enterprise Institute think tank, reaction to President Trump's plan was more tepid, alleging that the AI plan still exerted too much regulatory control. 'The plan's push for international AI standards is similar to the European Union's stultifying regulatory harmonization, which, among other things, is locking the continent into USB-C technology for years to come, even as better technologies emerge,' said Ryan Young, Senior Economist with the Competitive Enterprise Institute. According to White House officials, President Trump is pushing 90 federal policy actions in the plan, which comes after he sought public input for a comprehensive AI policy in February. Tech companies, academics and advocacy groups submitted ideas. Consumer rights, labour and environmental groups outlined areas of concern within Mr Trump's less restrictive stance on AI. Several organisations, such as the Electronic Frontier Foundation, were concerned the tech industry would have too much influence in crafting the AI plan. 'While current machine-learning technologies have some positive applications, they are also being adopted in consequential decision-making contexts where these emerging technologies are likely to cause harm and unlikely to deliver the promised benefits,' the EFF wrote in a March letter to the White House. During a conference call with reporters, the White House disagreed with the narrative that tech firms had amassed more influence. 'It was probably one of the most diverse set of individuals from across the country and across different sectors, from civil society to Hollywood to academia to the private sector,' a White House official said. The Trump administration said it had received more than 10,000 responses to the requests for guidance, from which it moulded the AI plan. Early in Mr Trump's second term, he signed an executive order that rescinded Mr Biden's executive order on AI. That order acknowledged the tremendous potential upside of AI and encouraged the acceleration of vital AI standards, but was also geared towards implementing guardrails to protect consumers. 'Developers of the most powerful AI systems [must] share their safety test results and other critical information with the US government,' a portion of Mr Biden's executive order read. That policy is largely absent from President Trump's plan.


Zawya
7 hours ago
- Zawya
Trump again calls for Fed board to act, says Powell 'doesn't get it'
U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday reiterated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell amid his ongoing call for lower rates, and called on the central bank's board to act. "Our Rate should be three points lower than they are, saving us $1 Trillion per year (as a Country). This stubborn guy at the Fed just doesn't get it — Never did, and never will. The Board should act, but they don't have the Courage to do so!" Trump wrote on his social media platform. (Reporting by Bhargav Acharya; writing by Susan Heavey)