Russian Nuclear Sabotage In Space Could Decimate Western Satellites

Forbes

4 days ago

Russia, creator of the world's most powerful nuclear weapon, the Tsar Bomb, is likely set to launch ... More a nuclear-powered spacecraft aimed at sabotaging Western satellites across low Earth orbit. (Photo by NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA / AFP) (Photo by NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA/AFP via Getty Images)
Even as Russia races to perfect a nuclear-armed spacecraft, its space weapons designers are likely also preparing to launch a stealth alternative to similarly threaten constellations of Western satellites speeding around the planet.
As the Kremlin ramps up its secret, subversive attacks on the Western powers aiding besieged Ukraine, its century-long expertise in sabotage—starting with Soviet insurrectionists Lenin and Stalin—could next be directed to upend the realm of low Earth orbit, says Elena Grossfeld, an expert on Russia's space and nuclear arms programs at King's College London.
While Moscow presses forward with its top-secret project, discovered by American intelligence agencies, to deploy nuclear-tipped anti-satellite missiles in orbit, the detonation of a fission bomb hundreds of kilometers above the Earth would undoubtedly trigger a rapid response by NATO, Grossfeld tells me in an interview.
An Accidental Nuclear Explosion In Space Provides 'Plausible Deniability'
Less obviously confrontational would be the 'accidental' explosion of a nuclear-powered spacecraft, which could likewise take out a sizable swath of Allied satellites while shielding Moscow in a cloud of 'plausible deniability,' she says.
The Russian space agency Roscosmos has already launched a satellite—likely a defense prototype on a precursor mission—sent into orbit near the edge of the high-radiation rings of the Van Allen belt, she says.
Sabotaging this orbital zone by remotely triggering the explosion of a nuclear-propelled craft would pump up the belt's radiation levels and in turn destroy or damage a cascade of nearby satellites.
The 'Beauty' of Sabotage - in the Eyes of the Kremlin
The 'beauty' of this type of sabotage operation, she says, is that it could never be absolutely proven to have been an intentional Russian attack on American and European spacecraft, which could forestall a collective NATO response.
Sabotage is a central component of the Kremlin's statecraft, and random acts of subversion—believed to be orchestrated by Moscow—have proliferated across Europe since Russian tanks and missiles began pummeling Ukraine three years ago.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said during a summit of the alliance's foreign ministers that Russia has 'tried to destabilize our countries and divide our societies with acts of sabotage.'
NATO Leaders Seek Collective Response to Russian Acts of Sabotage
Ministers representing the 32 NATO nations, Rutte said, have 'agreed a set of measures to counter Russia's hostile and cyber activities, including enhanced intelligence exchange, more exercises, better protection of critical infrastructure.'
Moscow's spiraling campaign of sabotage, he added, reflected 'the escalating dangers of the ongoing war in Ukraine.'
The Kremlin's steady stream of threats to use its nuclear weapons arsenal—the world's largest—against any NATO nation directly intervening to help Ukraine repel Russia's invasion forces signals that it already views the West as an enemy, Grossfeld says.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened to target Western Allies of Ukraine with ... More nuclear missiles, and could next launch a nuclear sabotage mission to decimate U.S. and European satellites. AFP PHOTO / KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV (Photo credit should read KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/GettyImages)
And the current overwhelming, supreme U.S. power in orbit, with advanced imaging, intelligence and nuclear command and control satellites, makes its ever-expanding constellations attractive targets.
Leveling the Battlefield Before Space War I
To level the battlefield before an anticipated Space War I, she predicts, Russia might opt to stage a devastating pre-emptive sabotage strike, via the self-destruction of its nuclear-powered craft.
The intensified charged particles whizzing through orbit— triggered by the Kremlin's space kamikaze mission—might take out thousands of American satellites, she predicts, while potentially sparking indecision across the West on whether to treat this maneuver as the orbital version of a Pearl Harbor attack.
SpaceX Could Be a Prime Target of Russian Space Sabotage Mission
SpaceX's mega-constellation of Starlink satellites, which have provided Ukraine's embattled president, national security council and citizenry with crucial internet connections, would be a prime target in Russia's orbital sabotage.
Since Moscow's missiles began blitzing democratic Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's emissaries to the UN have repeatedly threatened to start shooting down SpaceX satellites, and Russia has already deployed advanced jet fighters, missile brigades and swarms of suicide drones to attack Starlink terminals across Ukraine.
Putin's envoys to the UN have repeatedly threatened to begin shooting down SpaceX satellites aiding ... More Ukraine, and a new orbital sabotage mission could decimate SpaceX's constellation - the world's largest. (Photo by)
While warning it could commence firing anti-satellite missiles against any Western spacecraft aiding Ukraine, Grossfeld tells me, 'Russia has been investing in multiple launch methods' for its fleets of ASATs.
Yet a booby-trapped nuclear-fueled spacecraft, she adds, would be a far more powerful weapon.
Moscow's stepped-up embrace of sabotage is part of Putin's overarching goal of restoring Russia to its position as a Soviet superpower, when it ruled over a far greater realm.
Just as Russia has declined in its military might since the break-up of the Soviet Union a generation ago, Grossfeld says, its status as one of the globe's foremost space powers has likewise slipped away.
Russia has seen its status as a space superpower fade into history, and could launch an orbital ... More sabotage operation to strike at the current supreme leader in space - the U.S. (Photo by)
A grand strategy of nuclear sabotage in space would be aimed at decimating American dominance in orbit, even if it meant that Russia destroyed part of its own diminutive constellations in the process, she says.
Russia Arming for Space War I with the Western Allies
Russia has already amply signaled it is arming for Space War I with the Western Allies, Grossfeld points out.
Even before Kremlin troops began storming Ukraine's borders, before their missiles were launched to engulf Ukraine's cities and cathedrals in flames, their commanders led a secret mission they hoped would ensure a speedy victory in a lightning war.
Russia's First Attack on an American Satellite System
Moscow's military intelligence leadership carried out a surprise ambush in the first battle of this space war by targeting the ground terminals of the U.S. satellite constellation that Ukraine's defense ministry relied on to command air force pilots, navy captains and soldiers across the nation.
This cyber-attack swiftly crashed thousands of Viasat transceivers, and cut off communication lifelines linking Ukraine's democratic rulers with their armed guardians, and with their allies across Europe and the globe.
The United Kingdom's foreign secretary lashed out at 'Russian Military Intelligence' for staging the assault on the American satellite operator, and on Ukraine, and threatened the Kremlin would face 'severe repercussions.'
Yet since then, Grossfeld says, sanctions imposed on Russia have failed to deter Putin's expansionist ambitions and dreams of a renewed Soviet empire, or his escalating acts of sabotage aimed at destroying the willpower of the West and its backing for Ukraine.
'Despite multiple sabotage operations in Europe,' she adds, 'no actions have been taken by either the U.S. or NATO against Russia.'
That could inspire Putin to extend his clandestine campaigns of subversion into the heavens, she predicts, even as he gains ground in his terrestrial war against Ukraine.