Vote counting done, the deal-making begins for Tasmania's next government

Australia Broadcast Center

14 hours ago

So here it is. The final seat chart for Tasmania's parliament: Liberals with 14, Labor with 10, five Greens and six other members of the crossbench.
Sound familiar?
Well, aside from some shuffling of the deckchairs, the 2025 Tasmanian election — not to be confused with the 2024 one (although you'd be forgiven for doing so) — ended up almost exactly where it was before Premier Jeremy Rockliff pulled the trigger.
We can get to the whole what was the point later, but there is one rather vital question that has yet to be answered — who will be the government?
Gone are the days when who would form government was known on election night.
And, apparently, gone are the days when knowing the final makeup of parliament means we know which party will be leading the state at the end of the year.
That answer may not be known for over a month.
But at least the players are known, because the pathways to government or a no-confidence motion have become slightly clearer.
Let's start with the Liberals on 14 seats. That may seem, on the face of things, to be a better chance.
Whichever party hopes to form government will need 18 votes on their side.
Finding four votes from a crossbench of 11 does not sound that hard in theory — until you start to break down who is in the crossbench.
The Greens won't be offering up their five.
Craig Garland is so infuriated by the way the Liberals have handled Marinus Link that he would be willing to vote for a no-confidence motion.
Kristie Johnston voted for the last no-confidence motion and, while she hasn't ruled out offering supply and confidence, it may not be encouraging.
That's six, maybe seven votes down, leaving four for the Liberals to truly court, with three of them newbies.
The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers' Carlo Di Falco and former Launceston Councillor George Razay have both said they are open to working with either side.
For the record, so has anti-salmon campaigner Peter George, but his progressive values don't mesh particularly well with either major party.
The easiest person for the Liberals get, or in this case keep onside, is independent David O'Byrne.
Mr O'Byrne offered support in the last parliament, voted against the no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff and has spoken about how difficult it was for Labor to govern with 10 when there were just 25 members of the lower house as opposed to the 35 they now have.
Mind you, last election Labor ruled out trying to form government, so Mr O'Byrne had no other option. As a former Labor leader with those values, he has to entertain the idea.
Labor's rather mammoth effort of securing eight votes is made so much easier by the fact the Greens want to engage with it.
Greens Leader Rosalie Woodruff gave Labor Leader Dean Winter the opportunity to work together during that weird time between the no-confidence motion and the election.
Mr Winter flat-out refused.
But things look very different from the other side of this election.
The party is out of options, down on votes, and staring down four years of opposition, assuming this parliament makes it that long.
The very fact that Mr Winter is playing phone tag with Dr Woodruff says it all.
But the two clearly have some different ideas about how a minority Labor government might work.
Labor is continuing to insist it will not do a deal with the Greens, while Dr Woodruff maintains there must be an agreement for it to work.
She may not be sure what that looks like, but has said "there is no possibility of any minority government without some movement".
That suggests compromise.
So, is Labor just playing semantics with the word deal? Will it accept a so-called agreement with the Greens?
They will be roasted by the Liberals if they do, but how much does that matter if the Libs are the ones sitting on the Opposition benches?
Perhaps, Labor thinks it can avoid doing any sort of agreement with The Greens.
After all, the Greens seem very determined to kick out the Rockliff Government — even more so post Marinus drama — and Labor is their only path to do so.
Maybe that is all Labor has to offer up. Be it on the Greens if they want to be the key reason the Liberals stay in power.
But there is a middle ground. The parties' values overlap, why not lean into that?
After all, it was the Greens and Labor, with others on the crossbench, that banded together last parliament to lower the political donation disclosure threshold to $1,000, introduce industrial manslaughter laws and decriminalise begging.
Surely working together could be about finding the middle space in the Venn diagram where no one compromises their values.
Banning conversion therapy, working towards a treaty for First Nations peoples and strengthening the Integrity Commission are a few commonalities that spring to mind.
If Labor gets the Greens on board, and with Craig Garland's vote, the party is only crossbenchers away from seizing power through a vote of no confidence.
Of course, it may not come to that, but the backup plan is looking viable. And how wild would that be?
Labor, which recorded its lowest ever primary vote, taking government and installing a premier that could not even pull a quota in his own right.
If it pulls this off, Labor MPs will make up just over half of the 18 votes that they need in the lower house.
What mandate do they really have?
Then again, Tasmanians voted for 11 MPs that are neither Labor nor Liberal and the vast majority of those 11 MPs hold values that are far closer to Labor than the Liberals.
Whether it can be called a progressive parliament is debatable.
Winter's 'jobs jobs jobs' Labor is big on industries like mining, forestry and aquaculture and rarely delves into social issues.
In fact, some have observed Mr Rockliff appears more socially progressive.
But it certainly is not a Liberal friendly parliament either.
They may have seen an uptick in their primary vote of more than three per cent and Mr Rockliff's 22,000 first preference votes, but their right-wing values do not appear to have won over the vast majority of Tasmanians.
If the result was a true endorsement of the Liberals, wouldn't they have gained a single seat?
In the end, all of this pondering does not matter, because both parties want government.
One is trying to keep it, the other trying to claim it — and that means it is going to take a while.
It is unclear exactly when Tasmanians will know who is going the lead the state.
But while the parties play their power games, parliament is paused.
No legislation is being passed, no big brave decisions (save Marinus) are being made — and the state is effectively left on standby.