North Carolina in, West Virginia out and more selection committee questions
North Carolina was a borderline call the whole time. The Tar Heels turned out to be At-Large Team No. 37 when they just as easily could have been seen as At-Large Team No. 38 on the wrong side of the cut line. That's simultaneously a big difference in practice, but not a huge one in terms of evaluation.
The real subplot was lurking in plain sight for the past three months, and it was alluded to at the very end of Sunday's final Washington Post bracket projection:
Repeating from Saturday: If there's a seemingly safe team that might be in more danger than most think, it's West Virginia. The Mountaineers did much of their best work before Tucker DeVries got hurt in early December.
Lo and behold, the Mountaineers were At-Large Team No. 38. West Virginia had six Quad 1 victories, two of them before DeVries was injured after eight games. The Mountaineers also lost to last-place Colorado in the second round of the Big 12 tournament last week, a misstep that seemed like it might relegate them to Dayton.
Instead, West Virginia got sent to the NIT. And the one-Quad-1-win twins, North Carolina and Xavier, get to play on in the middle of this week.
Among the biggest snubs and surprises from Sunday. …
The Tar Heels were the team that, in retrospect, should have been rooting harder for Memphis in the American Athletic tournament championship game. Had the Tigers lost to UAB, Hubert Davis' Heels would have been squeezed out of the field. Instead, North Carolina gets a matchup with San Diego State, a game that features a pair of recent tournament runners-up.
North Carolina didn't do much wrong; its worst loss was a one-point setback at home against Stanford. But it also didn't do much right, going 1-12 in Quadrant 1 games, the lone victory over UCLA. It beat two teams in the tournament field (Patriot League champ American was the other). Absolutely no one in Chapel Hill had any right to moan if the Tar Heels got excluded.
But they're in after winning eight consecutive games against teams other than Duke over the final month of the season. North Carolina (22-13) needed every last one of those victories to secure a reprieve.
The Tar Heels were the team that, in retrospect, should have been rooting harder for Memphis in the American Athletic tournament championship game. Had the Tigers lost to UAB, Hubert Davis' Heels would have been squeezed out of the field. Instead, North Carolina gets a matchup with San Diego State, a game that features a pair of recent tournament runners-up.
North Carolina didn't do much wrong; its worst loss was a one-point setback at home against Stanford. But it also didn't do much right, going 1-12 in Quadrant 1 games, the lone victory over UCLA. It beat two teams in the tournament field (Patriot League champ American was the other). Absolutely no one in Chapel Hill had any right to moan if the Tar Heels got excluded.
But they're in after winning eight consecutive games against teams other than Duke over the final month of the season. North Carolina (22-13) needed every last one of those victories to secure a reprieve.
If someone does have the right to complain, it's the Mountaineers (19-13). Yes, the DeVries injury lowered their ceiling considerably, and they were 8-11 after Jan. 4. They also won at Kansas without the 6-foot-7 wing, and also picked off Iowa State in Morgantown after DeVries was lost for the season.
That said, West Virginia was not a metrics darling (between 42nd and 53rd in six of the seven team sheet rankings), and the Big 12 tournament stinker against Colorado was a terrible last impression (especially when compared to North Carolina winning twice in the ACC tournament). Sunday's exclusion makes DeVries's injury an even bigger what-if than it already was.
If someone does have the right to complain, it's the Mountaineers (19-13). Yes, the DeVries injury lowered their ceiling considerably, and they were 8-11 after Jan. 4. They also won at Kansas without the 6-foot-7 wing, and also picked off Iowa State in Morgantown after DeVries was lost for the season.
That said, West Virginia was not a metrics darling (between 42nd and 53rd in six of the seven team sheet rankings), and the Big 12 tournament stinker against Colorado was a terrible last impression (especially when compared to North Carolina winning twice in the ACC tournament). Sunday's exclusion makes DeVries's injury an even bigger what-if than it already was.
How the committee found three teams worth of difference between the Musketeers and North Carolina on its seed list is the most perplexing part of the evening. Regardless, Sean Miller's team made it in after a late-season high-wire act that included seven consecutive victories, largely against the bottom third of the Big East.
This could have been much easier for Xavier (21-11) had it defeated Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals after holding a double-digit lead in the second half. Instead, the Musketeers will make the roughly hour-long drive north to Dayton for a play-in game for the first time since 2014. They should have plenty of support in the stands while facing Texas.
How the committee found three teams worth of difference between the Musketeers and North Carolina on its seed list is the most perplexing part of the evening. Regardless, Sean Miller's team made it in after a late-season high-wire act that included seven consecutive victories, largely against the bottom third of the Big East.
This could have been much easier for Xavier (21-11) had it defeated Marquette in the Big East quarterfinals after holding a double-digit lead in the second half. Instead, the Musketeers will make the roughly hour-long drive north to Dayton for a play-in game for the first time since 2014. They should have plenty of support in the stands while facing Texas.
The Cardinals (27-7) ranked 28th or better in all seven team sheet metrics, and while their Quadrant 1 record wasn't fantastic (4-6), they were 11-1 in Quad 2 games and didn't lose to anyone outside that group. It's hard to believe Pat Kelsey's bunch is on the No. 8 line.
Louisville is the most blatantly underseeded team in the field. The good news? They'll open the tournament in nearby Lexington and have a chance to pack archrival Kentucky's arena. The bad news? They likely will face Auburn in the second round. That's a much tougher ask than facing a No. 3 or No. 4 seed, even if that would have required some extra travel.
The Cardinals (27-7) ranked 28th or better in all seven team sheet metrics, and while their Quadrant 1 record wasn't fantastic (4-6), they were 11-1 in Quad 2 games and didn't lose to anyone outside that group. It's hard to believe Pat Kelsey's bunch is on the No. 8 line.
Louisville is the most blatantly underseeded team in the field. The good news? They'll open the tournament in nearby Lexington and have a chance to pack archrival Kentucky's arena. The bad news? They likely will face Auburn in the second round. That's a much tougher ask than facing a No. 3 or No. 4 seed, even if that would have required some extra travel.
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