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New polling puts Victorian Labor on track to secure historic fourth term, with support for Coalition falling amid string of controversies

New polling puts Victorian Labor on track to secure historic fourth term, with support for Coalition falling amid string of controversies

Sky News AU11 hours ago
Two separate polls have indicated that if a state election were held today, the Victorian Labor government would cruise to victory, despite the majority of voters preferring Opposition Leader Brad Battin as Premier.
A Redbridge poll, obtained by The Herald Sun, showed the Victorian Labor Party was in a prime election winning position, leading the Coalition 51.5 to 48.5 on a two-party preferred count.
This would translate to an unprecedented fourth election victory for Labor if the current vote held, with the ALP experiencing a four-point bump to its primary vote.
The development comes as Labor grapples with a mounting $149 billion debt pile, a budget crisis with the risk of a credit downgrade, delays and cost blowouts to critical infrastructure projects, and surging youth crime rates among other issues.
Support meanwhile for Mr Battin's Coalition has plunged to 38 per cent, five points lower than when he was appointed leader in December.
The poll of 1,183 Victorians represents a significant shift, with the Coalition having led Labor 51–49 on a two-party preferred basis eight months ago shortly before John Pesutto was dumped as leader.
The Coalition has lost the support of almost all demographics, including every age group, tertiary educated and women voters, signifying a major blow to Mr Battin's leadership amid the tumultuous legal feud between MP Moira Deeming and Mr Pesutto.
The opposition has also lost the support of migrant voters and those residing in Melbourne's inner, middle and outer suburbs, leading Labor only in rural areas.
Only 26 per cent of Victorians polled said they believed the opposition was worthy of governing.
However, support for Premier Jacinta Allan had similarly taken a hit, with only 27 per cent of those surveyed saying they had confidence in a re-elected Labor government.
A Newspoll conducted for The Australian also showed that Ms Allan would cling to government, with Labor leading the Coalition 53–47 on a two-party preferred basis.
Ms Allan's personal popularity and voter satisfaction suffered a bruising and trails Mr Battin 41-36 as preferred Premier.
A resounding 59 per cent of voters polled said they did not believe Labor deserved to be re-elected, with 61 per cent stating they were unhappy with Ms Allan's leadership style.
Victorians are equally dissatisfied with the Coalition, with 60 per cent stating they did not believe the opposition was ready to take the reins after 11 years in the wilderness.
Labor secured 37 per cent of the primary vote, with the Coalition sitting at 34.40 per cent and the Greens at 11.50 per cent.
The poll further uncovered that support within the major parties rank and file had plummeted, with 44 per cent of Labor supporters and 23 per cent of Liberal voters turning away from their respective parties.
Although Labor is well short of achieving it's thumping 2022 result, Redbridge co-director Kos Samaras said preference flows from minor parties would comfortably deliver Labor a record fourth term.
'Labor is racking up support in fast-growing urban electorates within diverse Melbourne and highly educated constituencies,' he said.
'While the Coalition is piling up votes in ageing, shrinking seats they already hold.'
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