Eurozone Bond Yields Fall, Diverge From U.S. Treasury Yields
1040 ET – The rise in Treasury yields means bonds may be cheap enough to attract demand for 10-year notes being auctioned at 1 p.m., PGIM's Robert Tipp says. 'After a 50-basis-point-plus selloff in the 10-year in the last three days…I think pretty good value has been created' and the auction could go 'pretty smoothly,' he says. Fixed-income investors are worried that demand for U.S. government debt could diminish amid uncertainties stemming from trade wars. Tipp says the worst might be almost over. 'Tariff concerns were at a fever pitch and it is possible that some of this uncertainty could decline as we go forward.' (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
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Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Tesla Shares Tumble. Is It Time to Buy the Dip or Run for the Hills?
Key Points For a second straight quarter, Tesla posted weak auto deliveries and revenue. The company once again hyped its robotaxi and robot ambitions. The stock is largely valued based on future bets paying off, making it risky to own. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has long been a stock that's traded more on the vision of its founder Elon Musk than on its actual fundamentals. However, with the stock sinking following Tesla's lackluster second-quarter earnings report -- despite more big promises around robotaxis and robots -- reality might finally be catching up to it. Musk has done a lot of brand damage to Tesla over the past six months or so. His funding of President Donald Trump's campaign and overseeing the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) angered many liberal-leaning consumers. He then later got in a very public feud with the President he helped get elected, alienating himself and Tesla from many conservatives, as well. The fallout could be seen in Tesla's Q2 numbers, while tariffs also stung the company. Meanwhile, it will soon see an even potentially bigger headwind due to the expiration of the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) credit by the end of third-quarter 2025. Its core auto business is struggling For the second straight quarter, Tesla saw big declines in its core auto business. After a 13% drop in deliveries in the first quarter, deliveries fell by the same amount in Q2. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries decreased by 12%, while other models plunged by 52%. Tesla's auto revenue plunged 16% to $16.7 billion in the quarter. Within its auto revenue, its regulatory credits, which are pure gross margin, fell by more than half to $429 million. Not surprisingly, this affected Tesla's profitability in the quarter. Even worse for the company is that many of these regulatory credits will soon be going away. Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will eliminate the current federal $7,500 EV tax credit at the end of September. As a result, Musk admitted that the company could be in for a "few rough quarters" ahead. Overall, Tesla's revenue fell 12% to $22.5 billion. Its energy generation and storage revenue dropped 7% to $2.8 billion, while its service revenue climbed 17% to nearly $3.1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share sank 23% to $0.40, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) declined by 7% to $3.4 billion. Tesla's cash flow is also starting to take a hit. Its operating cash flow sank 30% to $2.5 billion, while its free cash flow cratered by 89% to $146 million. More big promises Given Tesla's poor operating results, it was not surprising that Musk and the rest of management directed the conversation toward Tesla's big bets on autonomous driving and robotics. Musk claimed that Tesla will expand its autonomous ride-hailing service to cover half of the U.S. population by the end of this year, pending regulatory approval. Now, of course, such a statement makes little sense. The company is currently only testing a small geofenced area in Austin, Texas, with safety drivers, and it has already had a number of safety issues in this small pilot. Its technology appears nowhere close to ready to be adopted in cities countrywide. But let's say, for argument's sake, that the technology and regulatory approvals work out. The company would then need hundreds of thousands of Level 4 autonomous driving vehicles on the road (not its current Level 2 vehicles). Beyond that, it would also need service and cleaning centers, as well as charging infrastructure in place to handle a fleet of that size. It would also need to have a consumer-facing platform that can handle things like pre-trip pricing, dynamic fare calculations, disputes, and refunds. There is no evidence that Tesla has any of this in place. Meanwhile, Musk continued to sing the praises of his Optimus robot, saying it will be Tesla's biggest product ever. He said Optimus 3 has an "exquisite" design with no significant flaws. He's looking to have a prototype of the new robot by the end of this year and then scale production next year. He then wants to be able to produce 1 million Optimus robots a year within five years. Once again, this seems ambitious. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is currently an AI robotics leader, and companies like Boston Dynamics have showcased robots with advanced mobility, so robots can be hugely useful. However, all Tesla has ever demonstrated is a humanoid robot that could only do carefully choreographed tasks. Today, most factory automation is done by specialized, fixed-purpose robots. The use case for a humanoid robot is still very questionable. Should investors buy the dip? Even after the stock pullback, Tesla's stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of over 170x based on 2025 analyst estimates, while its profitable auto peers -- like Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis -- generally have multiples of 10 or less. With its core auto business struggling, this indicates that the bulk of Tesla's market cap is predicated on ambitions that may or may not pan out. Given the company's track record of overpromising and under-delivering, this is not a bet I'd make. Should you buy stock in Tesla right now? The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $636,628!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,063,471!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,041% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 183% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 21, 2025 Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and Stellantis. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Tesla Shares Tumble. Is It Time to Buy the Dip or Run for the Hills? was originally published by The Motley Fool Sign in to access your portfolio
USA Today
13 minutes ago
- USA Today
Fed likely to stand pat on interest rates, stay coy on September cut amid Trump pressure
When the Federal Reserve feels confident it's getting closer to raising or lowering interest rates based on a clear-cut outlook for the economy and inflation, it often signals its plans at the prior meeting to avoid surprising markets. Now is probably not one of those times. At a two-day meeting that concludes Wednesday, the Fed is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady despite President Donald Trump's monthslong campaign aimed at browbeating Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues into cutting rates. At a meeting with Powell at the Fed on Thursday, Trump said he's unlikely to try to fire the Fed chief, whose term expires in May. Two of the Fed's Republican governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have backed Trump's call for a rate cut as soon as this week's meeting and they could dissent, said JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli. It would mark the first time two Fed governors have dissented since 1993, Feroli said. Will the Fed reduce interest rates again? The drama, however, will center around whether Powell or the Fed's post-meeting statement will hint at a likely rate cut in September – a move that's forecast by fed fund futures markets. Investors expect a total of two rate decreases by year's end. 'It's really going to come down to Chair Powell,' said Nationwide Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic. 'What type of…guidance does he provide?' Yet Trump's trade war has left a haze of uncertainty over the economy since January. And while the contours of his tariffs are taking shape, many of the import fees and their effects on inflation and the economy are still playing out. 'It's a long way to September,' Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients. 'The Fed needs more time to determine how the economy is evolving versus its goals.' In a research note, Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said he doesn't expect the 'central bank to tip its hand, as it will want to remain flexible because of the lingering uncertainty of where tariffs will ultimately settle, the magnitude of the boost to core goods prices, and whether tariffs are bleeding into other prices.' What happens when the Fed adjusts interest rates? The Fed chops rates to lower borrowing costs and juice a flagging economy and job market. It raises rates or keeps them higher longer to curtail inflation by cooling the economy. But economists expect Trump's levies to both reignite inflation and hamper growth as cost-burdened households reduce spending, leaving officials torn between their two mandates. Powell has said the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to assess which tariff-related hazard poses a bigger problem. The Fed lowered its benchmark short-term rate by a percentage point late last year after a pandemic-related inflation spike eased but has since been on hold. What are the current tariffs in the US? Some of Trump's tariff plans and their effects on prices are becoming clearer. In the spring, Trump announced a 90-day pause on high double-digit reciprocal tariffs for China and many other countries, easing recession fears and reversing a stock market sell-off. White House officials extended the reprieve to Aug. 1 to provide more time for negotiations. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has announced trade deals with the UK, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Phillipines and China, but the agreements still impose relatively high duties of 15% to 30%. Earlier this month, the president announced plans to raise the tariff rate on many Canadian imports from 25% to 35% and impose a blanket 15% to 20% duty on most other countries, up from 10%. He also threatened 30% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and the European Union, though the U.S. is still negotiating with those countries. Trump also has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and all imports from Brazil. Already in effect: a 50% levy on metals, 25% on cars and 30% on China. How are tariffs affecting inflation? For months, the fees had little effect on inflation, but they appeared to leave a bigger imprint in June as Chinese-made products got a bit more expensive, according to the consumer price index. Apparel prices rose by 0.4%; furniture, 1%; video and audio products, 1.1%; and toys, 1.8%. Overall, an underlying inflation measure the Fed follows closely ticked up from 2.8% to 2.9%, and many economists said the tariff effects were still mild. Yet that's largely because many retailers and manufacturers stocked up on goods before the fees took effect or absorbed the costs – tactics that forecasters say have run their course. Amid the uncertainty, Powell will likely take a middle-ground approach, Morgan Stanley says. The June inflation numbers 'should provide some confirmation to the (Fed) that the tariff push to inflation has begun, but not so much that would lead Powell to downplay the possibility of rate cuts this year,' Morgan Stanley wrote. How is the current economy in the USA? The economy is sending similarly mixed signals. A key measure of retail sales increased 0.5% in June. But economist Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said that's largely because of rising prices. Sales volumes appeared weak, he wrote. Morgan Stanley predicts a report Wednesday will reveal the economy grew a solid 2.2% in the April-June quarter, but it traces most of the gain to a reversal of a tariff-related import surge in the first quarter that caused the economy to shrink. (Imports are subtracted from gross domestic product because they're made in foreign countries.) How is the job market in the USA now? And wWhile employers added a sturdy 147,000 jobs in June, the private sector added just 74,000, mostly in health care. For many months, job gains have been concentrated in just a few sectors – health care, state and local governments, and leisure and hospitality. That's not a good omen for overall job growth in the months ahead, Bostjancic said. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect a report Friday to show the U.S. added just 118,000 jobs in July. With the labor market slowing, tariff tensions easing and their effects on inflation still modest, Bostjancic believes Powell could warm slightly to the idea of trimming rates in September. 'I would think he can sound a little more open to cutting rates just because of the data,' Bostjancic said. She expects the average U.S. tariff to rise from about 2% earlier this year to about 20%. That, she said, would push inflation from 2.7% to 3% by December – above the Fed's 2% goal but below the 3.4% many forecasters predicted a few months ago. At the same time, she noted that Trump's attacks on Powell and the Fed's independence have caused investors to worry officials ultimately may cut rates for political – rather than sound economic – reasons, driving inflation higher. As a result, market-based measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, a trend that could push up long-term rates and ironically undermine Trump's demands for lower borrowing costs. 'I don't think he'll send a hard signal,' Bostjancic said of Powell. 'I think he'll leave it open.'
Boston Globe
13 minutes ago
- Boston Globe
Tariffs threaten Asian beauty product boom in US
Asian skin care has been a booming global business for a more than a decade, with consumers in Europe, North and South America, and increasingly the Middle East, snapping up creams, serums and balms from South Korea, Japan and China. In the United States and elsewhere, Korean cosmetics, or K-beauty for short, have dominated the trend. A craze for all-in-one 'BB creams' — a combination of moisturizer, foundation and sunscreen — morphed into a fascination with 10-step rituals and ingredients like snail mucin, heartleaf and rice water. Advertisement Vehicles and electronics may be South Korea's top exports to the U.S. by value, but the country shipped more skin care and cosmetics to the U.S. than any other last year, according to data from market research company Euromonitor. France, with storied beauty brands like L'Oreal and Chanel, was second, Euromonitor said. Advertisement Statistics compiled by the U.S. International Trade Commission, an independent federal agency, show the U.S. imported $1.7 billion worth of South Korean cosmetics in 2024, a 54% increase from a year earlier. 'Korean beauty products not only add a lot of variety and choice for Americans, they really embraced them because they were offering something different for American consumers,' Mary Lovely, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said. Along with media offerings such as 'Parasite' and 'Squid Games,' and the popularity of K-pop bands like BTS, K-beauty has helped boost South Korea's profile globally, she said. 'It's all part and parcel really of the same thing,' Lovely said. 'And it can't be completely stopped by a 25% tariff, but it's hard to see how it won't influence how much is sold in the U.S. And I think what we're hearing from producers is that it also really decreases the number of products they want to offer in this market.' Senti Senti, a retailer that sells international beauty products at two New York boutiques and through an e-commerce site, saw a bit of 'panic buying' by customers when Trump first imposed punitive tariffs on goods from specific countries, manager Winnie Zhong said. The rush slowed down after the president paused the new duties for 90 days and hasn't picked up again, Zhong said, even with Trump saying on July 7 that a 25% tax on imports from Japan and South Korea would go into effect on Aug. 1. Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia subsequently reached agreements with the Trump administration that lowered the tariff rates their exported goods faced — in Japan's case, from 25% to 15% — still higher than the current baseline of 10% tariff. Advertisement But South Korea has yet to clinch an agreement, despite having a free trade agreement since 2012 that allowed cosmetics and most other consumer goods to enter the U.S. tax-free. Since the first store owned by Senti Senti opened 16 years ago, beauty products from Japan and South Korea became more of a focus and now account for 90% the stock. The business hasn't had to pass on any tariff-related costs to customers yet, but that won't be possible if the products are subject to a 25% import tax, Zhong said. 'I'm not really sure where the direction of K-beauty will go to with the tariffs in place, because one of the things with K-beauty or Asian beauty is that it's supposed to be accessible pricing,' she said. Devoted fans of Asian cosmetics will often buy direct from Asia and wait weeks for their packages to arrive because the products typically cost less than they do in American stores. Rather than stocking up on their favorite sunscreens, lip tints and toners, some shoppers are taking a pause due to the tariff uncertainty. Los Angeles resident Jen Chae, a content creator with over 1.2 million YouTube subscribers, has explored Korean and Japanese beauty products and became personally intrigued by Chinese beauty brands over the last year. When the tariffs were first announced, Chae temporarily paused ordering from sites such as a shopping platform owned by an e-commerce company based in Hong Kong. She did not know if she would have to pay customs duties on the products she bought or the ones brands sent to her as a creator. Advertisement 'I wasn't sure if those would automatically charge the entire package with a blanket tariff cost, or if it was just on certain items,' Chae said. On its website, YesStyle says it will give customers store credit to reimburse them for import charges. At Ohlolly, an online store focused on Korean products, owners Sue Greene and Herra Namhie are taking a similar pause. They purchase direct from South Korea and from licensed wholesalers in the U.S., and store their inventory in a warehouse in Ontario, California. After years of no duties, a 25% import tax would create a 'huge increase in costs to us,' Namhie said. She and Greene made two recent orders to replenish their stock when the tariffs were at 10%. But they have put further restocks on hold 'because I don't think we can handle 25%,' Namhie said. They'd have to raise prices, and then shoppers might go elsewhere. The business owners and sisters are holding out on hope the U.S. and Korea settle on a lower tariff or carve out exceptions for smaller ticket items like beauty products. But they only have two to four months of inventory in their warehouse. They say that in a month they'll have to make a decision on what products to order, what to discontinue and what prices will have to increase. Rachel Weingarten, a former makeup artist who writes a daily beauty newsletter called 'Hello Gorgeous!,' said while she's devoted to K-beauty products like lip masks and toner pads, she doesn't think stockpiling is a sound practice. 'Maybe one or two products, but natural oils, vulnerable packaging and expiration dates mean that your products could go rancid before you can get to them,' she said. Advertisement Weingarten said she'll still buy Korean products if prices go up, but that the beauty world is bigger than one country. 'I'd still indulge in my favorites, but am always looking for great products in general,' she said. Bhasin, in Menlo Park, California, plans to keep buying her face masks too, even if the price goes up, because she likes the quality of Korean masks. 'If prices will go up, I will not shift to U.S. products,' she said. 'For face masks, I feel there are not a ton of solid and reliable substitutes in the U.S.' AP audience engagement editor Karena Phan in Los Angeles contributed to this report.
